IMF estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021.

The IMF has decreased its forecast of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 from 4% to 3.5%, according to the Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) (interfaxukraine). The organization raised its expectations for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 to 3.6%, while earlier this figure was expected at 3.4%. As indicated in the WEO, the estimate of the average annual inflation in Ukraine in 2021 was increased from 7.9% to 9.5%, and from 6.8% to 7.1% in 2022. The rate

GDP growth in 2021 may reach 4%.

 This will mean that the Ukrainian economy has bounced back after the economic decline due to the coronavirus crisis said Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal on his Facebook page.  Shmyhal said that the optimistic forecast is based on a steadily growing consumer demand, an average salary that is now above $500 per month, an increase in investment to a four-year record, and a record harvest and growth in the agricultural sector. According to the draft State Budget for 2022, real GDP

Another lockdown may lead to a reduction in Ukraine’s GDP.

 The Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Kyrylo Shevchenko, said that a possible lockdown in Ukraine, depending on the format and severity of quarantine restrictions, may lead to a 0.4%-0.6% reduction in GDP. “Although business processes are returning offline and vaccination rates are growing, the risks of introducing a new lockdown due to the spread of new strains of the virus remain significant,” reported ukrinform.

The IMF has raised its Ukraine GDP growth to 4% this year,

 up from its forecast of 3% made six months ago. World GDP is to increase by 6% this year, “reflecting additional fiscal support in a few large economies and the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of the year,” the IMF wrote in its April World Economic Outlook Review. Last week, the World Bank raised its growth forecast for Ukraine this year to 3.8%. A Bloomberg survey of 13 economists has predicted a rate of growth of 4.4%. Ukraine’s

Dragon plans to return this year to its pre-pandemic levels of investment

Dragon plans to return this year to its pre-pandemic levels of investment, Dragon Capital CEO, said last week at the Global Outlook meeting hosted by the European Business Association. “In the first half of the year, we plan to close five deals together with co-investors and Western funds for about $200 million,” said Fiala, who is also President of the EBA. “We hope to close them in the first half of the year, so we will return to the rates

Public works construction pulled the sector ahead last year for an overall increase of 4%, to $7.1 billion

Public works construction pulled the sector ahead last year for an overall increase of 4%, to $7.1 billion, the State Statistics Service reports. Road construction was up 142% in nominal terms, making up for a 53% drop in renewable energy facilities. Overall engineering structures was up 15% in real terms. Residential work was down 18.5%. Commercial was down 3%. By contrast, construction grew by 24% in 2019 over 2018. Last year, construction in Kyiv City was down 2%. But the

Starting March 1, the State Mortgage Institution will start to offer home mortgages at 7%

Starting March 1, the State Mortgage Institution will start to offer home mortgages at 7%, Prime Minister Shmyhal announced last week. For reference, Ukraine’s prime rate has been 6% since June 2020.

Ukrgazbank, a state-owned bank, reports that since July it has made $16 million worth of low interest mortgages to 548 people.

Ukrgazbank, a state-owned bank, reports that since July it has made $16 million worth of low interest mortgages to 548 people. Half of the mortgages are for under 10%. For dachas, or secondary homes, the bank offers 20-year loans under these conditions: fixed for the first two years at 9.9%, then fixed for the next 18 years at 12.99%.

Despite tight border controls imposed during last spring’s coronavirus lockdown, remittances from Ukrainians working outside the country increased by 2% last year, to $12.1 billion,

Despite tight border controls imposed during last spring’s coronavirus lockdown, remittances from Ukrainians working outside the country increased by 2% last year, to $12.1 billion, according to data from the National Bank of Ukraine. Transfers through banks increased by 24%, to $4.7 billion. Another $2.7 billion came in through international payment systems. Informal channels – through relatives, friends and bus drivers – decreased, probably due to difficulties crossing borders.

Worker migration remains strong to Poland, a country that suffered one of the EU’s smallest GDP drops in 2020 — an estimated 2.7%.

Worker migration remains strong to Poland, a country that suffered one of the EU’s smallest GDP drops in 2020 — an estimated 2.7%. During 2020, the number of foreigners officially working in Poland increased by 8%, to 725,000, according to Poland’s Social Insurance Institution, or ZUS. Of these, Ukrainians account for 73%. In an international appeal Monday, Poland’s Education Ministry listed the five most needed professions: roofer, locksmith, road worker, software engineer and automation specialist. An article on the appeal

Ukraine’s economy will rebound sharply to 10% growth yoy in the second quarter of 2021, breaking five successive quarters of decline

Ukraine’s economy will rebound sharply to 10% growth yoy in the second quarter of 2021, breaking five successive quarters of decline, according to a Reuters poll of 12 Ukrainian analysts. The median forecast of analysts has the GDP shrinking by 0.5% yoy in January-March, but then growing by 10.2% in April-June. The sharp rebound comes from a low base: in the second quarter of last year, strict coronavirus controls forced the economy to shrink by 11.4%. If the government does

Ukraine aims to vaccinate against Covid-19 the most vulnerable half of its population over the next year,

Ukraine aims to vaccinate against Covid-19 the most vulnerable half of its population over the next year, President Zelenskiy told a forum in Kyiv yesterday, “Ukraine 30. Coronavirus: Challenges and Responses.” “We have agreed to supply vaccines to Ukraine from Pfizer, Sinovac, AstraZeneca and Novavax companies,” the President said.  “The first stage of vaccination will begin this month,” he said, adding that one million vaccines are to arrive from Pfizer in coming days.

The European Investment Bank is loaning €50 million to Ukraine to help pay for vaccines, refrigeration equipment and logistics

The European Investment Bank is loaning €50 million to Ukraine to help pay for vaccines, refrigeration equipment and logistics, Ihor Ivaschenko, Deputy Health Minister, told reporters at the forum. Zelenskiy said the number of new infections reported daily has dropped by two thirds in recent weeks.

People who are vaccinated or who have recovered from Covid will be exempt from quarantine restrictions,

People who are vaccinated or who have recovered from Covid will be exempt from quarantine restrictions, Zelenskiy said, without elaborating.  “Lack of faith in vaccination, refusal to vaccinate by a significant part of the population” is “very serious issue,” Zelenskiy said. He said he would lead by example by taking the jab on TV.

China-Europe freight trains were up 66% yoy in January, to 1,165

China-Europe freight trains were up 66% yoy in January, to 1,165, reported China State Railway Corporation. The number of containers grew 75%, to 109,000 for the month. At this pace, one 94-container Chinese train passes into the EU every 40 minutes. With the overwhelming majority of this rail traffic passing through Belarus to Poland, Ukraine seeks to get more traffic, providing a path to southern and central Europe markets through rail hubs in Slovakia and Hungary.

A second private company has won permission to run freight trains on the tracks of Ukrzaliznytsia, the state railroad

A second private company has won permission to run freight trains on the tracks of Ukrzaliznytsia, the state railroad. Promvagontrans LLC was won permission to run freight trains on four routes in central Ukraine. The owner of 400 grain hopper cars, Promvagontrans is a unit of Ukrainian Agrarian Holding. In December, the first agreement was signed with Ukrainian Locomotive Company, a Lviv company. It can haul freight on 10 routes largely in Western Ukraine. This pilot program is expected to run

Riding the e-commerce boom, Nova Poshta has launched a €14 million sorting center in Kyiv

Riding the e-commerce boom, Nova Poshta has launched a €14 million sorting center in Kyiv that can sort up to 50,000 packages an hour. Captured in a video, the sorting center is a maze of belts, chutes and conveyors. The machinery was supplied by Vanderlande, a Dutch logistics automation company.

Postal operators – Nova Poshta, Ukrposhta and Meest Express – account for almost half of the 364,000 square meters of warehouse and logistics space to be commissioned this year

Postal operators – Nova Poshta, Ukrposhta and Meest Express – account for almost half of the 364,000 square meters of warehouse and logistics space to be commissioned this year, according to a study by Alterra Group.  In terms of geography, 55% of the new space – or 200,000 square meters — is to open in Lviv. This includes four projects of about 40,000 square meters: expansion of the Protec warehouse in Zymova Voda; Lvivsilmash; Galileo Logistic and Port Lviv Logistic

With the warehouse market tightening, Dragon Capital Group sold Omega-2, a 32,731 square meter logistics complex in Brovary’s industrial zone

With the warehouse market tightening, Dragon Capital Group sold Omega-2, a 32,731 square meter logistics complex in Brovary’s industrial zone, facing the city’s bypass road. “This is our first closing of a commercial real estate sale deal after we made a bet on this segment in 2016, and it demonstrates that there are opportunities in this market not only for profitable investments, but also for exits,” said Volodymyr Tymochko, Dragon’s managing director for Private Equity.