President’s office estimates Ukraine’s GDP at 3.8 in 2021.

Deputy Head of the President’s Office Yulia Svyrydenko says: “We expect that a full-fledged economic recovery will take place during this and subsequent years. This year we forecast the growth [of GDP] at the level of 3.8%.” She noted a recovery in private consumption and external demand. The Ministry of Economy has confirmed its growth forecast for 2021 at 4.1%, while the National Bank expects the GDP growth at 3.8%.

Ukraine’s GDP in January-July grew by 2.1%

according to the Ministry of Economy. The GDP of Ukraine for seven months of 2021 increased by 2.1% against a decrease of 6.1% in 2020. In July 2021, almost all major economic activities, except wholesale trade, showed growth. The positive dynamics of the economy was stimulated by industry due to favorable conditions in foreign commodity markets. Agriculture has entered an active phase with high yields of almost all crops. At the same time, the costs of livestock producers increased significantly

J.P. Morgan has downgraded the forecast of real GDP growth in 2021 to 4.5%

from 5.6% in its April forecast.  It’s nevertheless more optimistic than Oxford Economics which, as reported by UBN yesterday, has just downgraded its similar forecast to 4% from 4.4%.  J.P. Morgan predicts average annual inflation in Ukraine at 9% in 2021 with a further decline to 7.3% in 2022 (Oxford Economics-  9.2% this year, and further declines to 6.7% and 5.4% in 2022 and 2023). It expects the balance of payments deficit in 2021 at 1.7% of GDP, next year

“Ukraine’s Economy Back in Recession as Virus, Rate Hikes Weigh,”

 Bloomberg headlines, citing the latest dip in official GDP numbers. Second-quarter GDP fell by 0.8% compared to the first quarter, reports the State Statistics Service. This fall comes after the Q1 GDP was 1.2% below the last quarter of 2020. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic shrinkage. Compared to disastrous first half of 2020, the first half 2021 was up 1.7%, stresses the Economy Ministry.

Ukraine’s GDP probably grew by 6% during the second quarter,

compared to April-June of last year, predicts the Economy Ministry. This growth will cancel out the Q1 contraction, making 1.9% growth for the first half, the Ministry predicts. With this growth the Ministry sticks with its forecast of 4.1% GDP growth for 2021. The National Bank of Ukraine predicts 3.8%. With the recession apparently ending, the State Tax Service reports a 22% yoy increase in people registering their new jobs.

Ukraine’s GDP grew by 6% yoy in the second quarter,

the Economy Ministry reported yesterday. The increase comes after five straight quarters of decline due to the coronavirus pandemic. In a Reuters poll, economists predicted an 8% yoy increase. The Ministry said: “In the second quarter of 2021 economic recovery entered a positive trend, although it continues to be affected by the pandemic.” The government forecasts 4.1% growth for all of 2021, cancelling out last year’s decline of 4%.

Ukraine’s GDP may grow by 8% in the second quarter, a partial rebound from last year’s disastrous Q2 when the economy contracted by 11%

. A Reuters poll of analysts indicated yesterday that the economy will grow by 3.7% this year, largely making up for last year’s contraction of 4%. During the first quarter of this year, Ukraine’s economy contracted by 2.2%, compared to the same period last year, reports the State Statistics Service.

The Economy Ministry has downgraded its 2021 GDP growth forecast, to 4.1%, from 4.6%,

Ihor Petrashko told Interfax-Ukraine after stepping down as Economy Minister on Thursday. Similarly, the new 2022 growth forecast is 3.8%, down from 4.3%. Although the economy shrank by 2% in the first quarter of this year, he said: “Since April, we have seen positive trends, in particular in terms of industrial production and GDP growth.”

The economy contracted by 2.8% in January and February, compared to the first two months of last year,

estimated the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. Except for retail trade, all sectors were down. Consensus forecasts put Ukraine’s 2021 GDP growth at 4%. These forecasts were made before the April coronavirus lockdown in Kyiv and half of the regions. War jitters about Russia’s military threats also may dampen investment.

Zelenskiy acted as Russian President Putin planned more investment in Ukraine’s media

Zelenskiy acted as Russian President Putin planned more investment in Ukraine’s media, Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia, wrote in an essay for the Kyiv Post: “Zelensky’s courage to stand up to Medvedchuk should be applauded.” “It is well-known that Putin had allocated one and a half billion dollars to Medvedchuk for his pro-Russia media hypnosis,” writes Saakashvili who chairs Ukraine’s National Reform Council. “And they were also planning to take over ICTV Holding.” Owned by Viktor Pinchuk, ICTV

The closing of the three stations was appealed yesterday to the Supreme Court

The closing of the three stations was appealed yesterday to the Supreme Court. A Presidential decree cannot be stayed until a higher court, the High Administrative Court, hears the case. Viktor Medvedchuk, the reputed shadow owner of the stations, complained yesterday: “With one stroke of a pen, Zelenskiy threw out 1,500 journalists and other employees of the three stations into the street and deprived millions of people of the right to receive objective information.” Medvedchuk’s party, the Opposition Platform –

The Biden Administration is continuing the Trump administration’s opposition to Nord Stream 2,

The Biden Administration is continuing the Trump administration’s opposition to Nord Stream 2, DPA, the German news agency, reports from Washington of the Russia-Germany gas line. “Nord Stream 2 and the second line of Turk Stream are designed to increase Russia’s leverage over our allies and partners, and they undermine transatlantic security,” Ned Price, the new State Department spokesman said Wednesday. If the pipeline is finished and commissioned, Price said, more sanctions are possible.

Dragon Capital predicts Ukraine’s GDP will grow this year by 5.3%,

Dragon Capital predicts Ukraine’s GDP will grow this year by 5.3%, Tomas Fiala, the investment bank’s CEO, said yesterday at the European Business Association. This would bring the GDP to $171 billion, “a figure comparable to 2013, although we have lost part of the country and part of the economy,” Fiala said, referring to Russia’s 2014 occupation of Crimea and half of the Donbas. Fiala, who also is EBA president, predicted the exchange rate will end this year where it

In the last quarter of 2020, Ukraine’s economy returned to pre-crisis levels,

In the last quarter of 2020, Ukraine’s economy returned to pre-crisis levels, the same level as in Q4 2019, he said. “We expect that last year’s GDP fell by only 4%,” Fiala said.  “This is one of the best results in Europe. Only Poland fell a little less.”

Facing default this July on a $1.5 billion loan from China

Facing default this July on a $1.5 billion loan from China, the management of Ukraine’s State Food and Grain Corporation has denounced that the British-American manager overpaid salaries during four months when he ran the state company last winter. On Monday, State Security Service agents served Simon Cherniavsky with papers from the State Fiscal Police charging him with embezzling the hryvnia equivalent of $321,000 in salaries paid to 18 outside staffers bought in to clean up the scandal-ridden state company.

“We identified several cases of systematic misappropriations of company funds and other gross mismanagement,”

“We identified several cases of systematic misappropriations of company funds and other gross mismanagement,” Cherniavsky wrote Wednesday in a letter to the US Embassy. In an email to the UBN yesterday, Cherniavsky called the charges against him “absurd.” Looking ahead, it is unclear how the Grain Corporation will account for hundreds of millions of dollars missing from the 2012 loan from Eximbank China, a borrowing guaranteed by Ukraine’s Finance Ministry.

China and Ukraine should compartmentalize their economic relationship

China and Ukraine should compartmentalize their economic relationship, not allowing President Zelenskiy’s sanctions on Chinese companies investing in Motor Sich to poison wider bilateral trade and investment ties, argues Zhao Huirong, a guest writer in China Daily, owned by the Chinese Communist Party. “The sanctions are targeted only at the companies involved in the [aircraft engine] deal, not at those engaged in joint Sino-Ukrainian projects,” writes Zhao, an Eastern Europe research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “Zelenskiy

Ukraine plans to launch the its latest remote sensing satellite, Sich 2-30, into Earth orbit by the end of this year

Ukraine plans to launch the its latest remote sensing satellite, Sich 2-30, into Earth orbit by the end of this year, Strategic Industries Minister Oleh Urusky told a recent meeting of spacecraft developers and customers of satellite services. Built by Yuzmash, the first satellite of the Sich family was placed into orbit in 2004 from a rocket launched from Russia. Urusky did not say what company or country would handle the launching. Reporting on the satellite plan, China’s news agency

In the latest of three court setbacks for Ihor Kolomoisky

In the latest of three court setbacks for Ihor Kolomoisky, a 6-year, $6 billion claim by Kolomoisky and his partners against Ukraine ended yesterday after the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce declared it had no jurisdiction in the case. “SUPER MEGA WIN!!!!!!!!!!!! in Stockholm arbitration,” Ukraine’s Justice Minister Denys Maliuska wrote on Facebook. “After almost six years of trial, the arbitration was denied them today — denied completely.”

Separately, in London on Monday

Separately, in London on Monday, an English judge ordered Kolomoisky and his business partner Gennadiy Bogolyubov to pay PrivatBank £1 million in addition to an existing court-ordered payment of £11 million. Two weeks ago, in Kyiv, the Court of Appeal rejected a lower court ruling in Kolomoisky’s defamation suit against Anders Aslund, the Swedish-American economist. Lawyers for Asters successfully argued the Aslund’s statements about Kolomoisky’s involvement in the $5.5 billion bankruptcy of PrivatBank were an exercise of protected free speech.

Defending his decision to close three pro-Kremlin TV channels,

Defending his decision to close three pro-Kremlin TV channels, President Zelenskiy has met with managers of other major TV stations and with ambassadors of the G-7 nations. In both cases, the President said Russian state money funded the stations. “The President noted the sanctions decision was based on proof that the funding came from Russia and the targeted TV channels cooperated with terrorist organizations,” reported Zelenskiy’s website.