Oxford Economics presents more sober forecast.

While official Kyiv is claiming that the economy is rebounding, not everyone’s so optimistic. Oxford Economics has just downgraded the forecast for  GDP growth in 2021 to 4% from 4.4% in the July forecast.  Moreover, the risks of further lockdowns and likely tightening of fiscal and monetary policy have led to a deterioration in the forecast for economic growth in 2022 from 4.2% to 3.5%  It expects inflation to average 9.2% this year, with further declines to 6.7% and 5.4%

Ukraine’s GDP probably grew by 6% during the second quarter,

compared to April-June of last year, predicts the Economy Ministry. This growth will cancel out the Q1 contraction, making 1.9% growth for the first half, the Ministry predicts. With this growth the Ministry sticks with its forecast of 4.1% GDP growth for 2021. The National Bank of Ukraine predicts 3.8%. With the recession apparently ending, the State Tax Service reports a 22% yoy increase in people registering their new jobs.