President’s office estimates Ukraine’s GDP at 3.8 in 2021.

Deputy Head of the President’s Office Yulia Svyrydenko says: “We expect that a full-fledged economic recovery will take place during this and subsequent years. This year we forecast the growth [of GDP] at the level of 3.8%.” She noted a recovery in private consumption and external demand. The Ministry of Economy has confirmed its growth forecast for 2021 at 4.1%, while the National Bank expects the GDP growth at 3.8%.

J.P. Morgan has downgraded the forecast of real GDP growth in 2021 to 4.5%

from 5.6% in its April forecast.  It’s nevertheless more optimistic than Oxford Economics which, as reported by UBN yesterday, has just downgraded its similar forecast to 4% from 4.4%.  J.P. Morgan predicts average annual inflation in Ukraine at 9% in 2021 with a further decline to 7.3% in 2022 (Oxford Economics-  9.2% this year, and further declines to 6.7% and 5.4% in 2022 and 2023). It expects the balance of payments deficit in 2021 at 1.7% of GDP, next year

J.P. Morgan has predicted that Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 5.6% this year,

said the bank in its April commentary. This is higher than Ukraine’s Central Bank, which lowered its forecast last week to 3.8%. The Economy Ministry came out last week with a ‘consensus forecast’ of 4.1%. J.P. Morgan bases its optimism on EU and global growth in the second half, and on a rebuilding of inventories and a jump in investment in Ukraine. The bank also has predicted that IMF money will flow again to Ukraine in August-September.