NBU: After five months of declining sentiment, Ukrainian businesses have improved their expectations. According to the NBU Business Activity Expectations Index, the increase in sea and rail transportation, the preservation of a stable situation on the foreign exchange market, low inflationary expectat... #BusinessActivityExpectations #businessinukraine #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineBusinessExpectation #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine will defer payments on its national debt with the US, and the Eurobond restructuring might include a partial debt write-off. Ukraine and the US signed an agreement to postpone public debt payments with a group of Ukraine’s creditors from the G7 countries and the Paris Club. At the same time, the debt sustainability analysis... #DebtRestructuring #GDPinUkraine #imf #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
Currency restrictions effectively stabilize the Ukrainian economy, but they hold back investment. The director of the NBU’s monetary policy department, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, stated: “Currency restrictions are effective for stabilizing the economy, but they are burdensome for it and hold ba... #CurrencyLiberalization #CurrencyRestrictions #InvestmentsinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Experts compare consumer purchasing attitudes in Ukraine, the EU, and the US; Ukrainians tighten their belts with technology and entertainment. According to experts, in 2023 Ukrainians spent 66% of their monthly budget on food and other living expenses. On the other hand, in neighboring Poland only 36%, in Germany – 40%, and in the US &... #UkraineEconomy #Ukrainians'spending #UkrainiansIncome
Liberalizing the land market will move Ukraine $20B toward restoring its agricultural sector. Liberalization of the agricultural land market and increased transparency can bring $35B to Ukraine’s budget. This could close the current deficit of more than $20B in agricultural recovery fina... #AgroLand #FarmLand #LandMarketUkraine #Landreformukraine #UkraineEconomy #UkraineRecovery
The key policy rate in Ukraine may drop to 11-12% by the end of the year. Some members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank have not ruled out a lowering of the key policy rate to 11%–12% this year. This rate will be consistent with expected moderate inflat... #CurrencyLiberalization #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
How business tax increases and economic reservations from mobilization will affect Ukraine’s budget. Ukraine needs to find new sources of income for the state budget because raising taxes for businesses will lead to a decline in the country’s defense capabilities, according to Deputy Chairman o... #BusinessSupport #MobilizationUkraine #TaxesToTheBudget #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineEconomy #YaroslavZhelezniak
Ukraine plans to increase the excise duty on cigarettes, alcohol, and fuel to harmonize with EU norms. A schedule of annual rate increases until 2028 has been established for all excise goods. In particular, the excise tax on tobacco products will be equated to the euro, the tax rate will gradually inc... #ExciseDuty #ExciseTaxesOnFuel #TaxesUkraine #UkraineEconomy
How has the war transformed the labor market in Ukraine? During 2023, employers informed employment centers about 329,000 vacancies. The structure of these vacancies is as follows: 18% of vacancies – at processing industry enterprises 16% – in w... #JobInUkraine #UkraineEconomy #UkraineLaborMarket #UnemploymentUkraine
The International Monetary Fund has updated its macro forecast for Ukraine. According to the IMF, the expectation for nominal GDP in 2024 has increased to ₴7.75T from the ₴7.64T predicted in December last year’ However, 2025’s forecast remains almost unchanged at ₴8.86T. At t... #GDPinUkraine #imf #InflationinUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineBudgetDeficit #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
IMF: Due to the intensification of the war, the shock to Ukraine’s economy will begin in the second quarter. According to the IMF, in a negative scenario, the war will end by the end of 2025 and not at the end of 2024 as in the base scenario. At the same time, “the shock will begin in the second quarte... #GDPinUkraine #imf #InflationinUkraine #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy #WarinUkraine
Over the year, Ukraine’s gross foreign debt increased by almost 25%. How does this threaten the financial system? Ukraine’s gross foreign debt at the end of 2023 amounted to $161.5B. That is, it increased by almost 25% (+$30.6B). This debt includes the external debt from the government, the central bank, commerci... #DanyloHetmantsev #GDPinUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
One of the largest metallurgical plants in Ukraine exported 3.1 million tons of products and is increasing production. During the two years of the full-scale war, the Zaporizhstal metallurgical plant has exported 3.1 million tons of iron and rolled steel. The plant’s products are shipped to 38 countries around t... #SteelProductionUkraine #UkraineEconomy #UkraineIronProduction #Ukrainianmetallurgy #Zaporizhstal
In February, Ukraine reduced the deficit in foreign trade in goods by $130M. In February, Ukraine exported $3.4B worth of goods, which is equal to January’s result and almost 2% more than in February last year. Compared to January, the import of goods decreased by 2.3% t... #ExportCorridors #UkraineEconomy #UkraineTrade #Ukrainetradedeficit #ВідвантаженнятоварівУкраїна
About 75% of the Ukraine Business Compact platform’s participants have already invested in Ukraine or may soon do so. The Ministry of Economy, together with hundreds of companies from Ukraine and around the world, have started work to implement investment projects in promising sectors of the Ukrainian economy and dis... #InvestmentsinUkraine #UkraineBusinessCompact #UkraineEconomy #VolodymyrKuzyo
Experts have named the most attractive industries for investment in Ukraine and identified the barriers that should be removed. As Andrii Dlygach, the Director of the Advanter Group of Companies, pointed out, given its present course of European integration, Ukraine has huge opportunities in everything related to the green tra... #energyukraine #investments #InvestmentsinUkraine #UkraineDevelopment #UkraineEconomy #Ukrainianmetallurgy
The government has named five key sectors of Ukraine as future EU members. Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal singles out five sectors – defense, energy, agriculture, raw materials, and digital – in which Ukraine hopes to declare itself a future member of th... #agroUkraine #AssociationwithEU #DenysShmyhal #energyukraine #UkraineEconomy #UkrainianEnterprises
The key rate in Ukraine has again decreased to 14.5%, and the National Bank predicts further weakening. The National Bank’s board has decided to reduce the discount rate by 0.5 percentage point to 14.5% beginning March 15. In addition, the NBU reported that the rates on three-month deposit certificates ... #AndriiPyshnyi #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
A significant part of Ukrainian businesses is considering investment despite the war, according to data from the Institute of Economic Research. In 2023, 45% of surveyed companies invested in their development or restoration, and 44% were ready to invest in 2024. These are some of the ... #BusinessInvestments #investments #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineEconomy #бізнесвУкраїні
What industries in Ukraine do investors consider promising during the war? In the conditions of Russian aggression, Ukraine is attractive for investors who work with so-called distressed assets. These investors are willing to buy risky assets very cheaply, expecting potentia... #agroUkraine #ForeignInvestor #InvestmentsinUkraine #ProcessingPlantUkraine #UkraineEconomy
The logistics cost of exporting agricultural products to the ports of Odesa has decreased by 33%. Logistics costs for the export of farm products through the ports of Odesa in 2023 decreased by 33% compared to 2022, and shipping through the Romanian port of Constanta via the Danube ports by 40%, a... #agroexportukraine #ConstantaPort #DanubePorts #GrainLogistics #SeaExport #SeaPortsUkraine #UkraineEconomy
S&P has worsened its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth; the long-term sovereign FC rating outlook is negative. Economic growth in Ukraine will continue in 2024 because of the expansion of domestic demand and the further recovery of sea exports, but it will decrease to 3.9% from about 5.5% last year, according ... #GDPinUkraine #InflationinUkraine #StandartandPoor #UkraineEconomy #UkraineRating
Because of the war, the shadow labor market in Ukraine has grown to four million people, and the number of new vacancies exceeds pre-war figures. Over the past year and a half, approximately 1.5 million workers have left Ukraine’s official labor market due to the required military registration, so the state needs to find a middle ground regardi... #JobInUkraine #MobilizationUkraine #ShadowLaborMarket #UkraineEconomy #UkraineLaborMarket
Analysts have studied the state of the M&A market in Ukraine based on 2023’s results. 47 M&A deals (mergers and acquisitions) were announced last year, as the Ukrainian M&A market grew by almost 70% compared to 2022. The average value of M&A deals in Ukraine has also increa... #LifeCell #MergersAcquisitions #NJJCapital #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine’s losses from the border blockade have reached ₴20B: Though the EP will continue free trade with Ukraine, the EU is tightening export controls. The profile committee of the European Parliament plans to continue the free trade zone with Ukraine this week, said Deputy Minister of Agricultural Policy of Ukraine Taras Vysotskyy. He added this is ... #AdinaValean #agroexportukraine #BorderBlockade #FarmersProtest #TarasVysotskyi #UkraineEconomy
Business activity expectations have improved, and companies are looking for new employees. According to the NBU, the index of business activity expectations rose to 47.5 from 41 in January. Trade enterprises are the only ones among the surveyed sectors to assess their business activity posi... #BusinessExpectation #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineEconomy #UkrainianEnterprises
The state is moving to a new economic policy – Made in Ukraine, that will bring ₴4B to the budget and 1% GDP growth. President Zelenskyy announced the start of Ukraine’s new economic strategy, Made in Ukraine, which will become a platform for constant, direct dialogue between the state and entrepreneurs. He also ann... #DenysShmyhal #MadeinUA #UkraineEconomicStrategy #UkraineEconomy #Zelenskyy
Analysts predict how Ukraine’s accession to the EU would affect the growth of the Ukrainian economy. According to the NBU, the Ukrainian economy will increase by 7%, and the GDP per person will be $15,500 within a decade after the country’s accession to the EU with the rapid implementation of a... #AssociationwithEU #EuropeanIntegration #nbu #UkraineDevelopment #UkraineEconomy #UkraineEU
Businesses in Ukraine are planning on expansion and will borrow money for development. According to a European Business Association (EBA) study, the number of entrepreneurs who plan to raise funds to develop their businesses in 2024 has increased to 80% from 67% last year. In addition, ... #EBA #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineBusinessExpectation #UkraineEconomy #бізнесвУкраїні
How did Ukraine’s economy react to the beginning of Russian aggression in 2014 and the full-scale war in 2022? Ukraine’s GDP did not fall as much in 2014 as it did in 2022, when it suffered a record-setting decline. In 2014-2015, GDP fell by 15.8%, and in 2022 – by almost 30%. However, the trajectory of ... #GDPinUkraine #hryvniadevaluation #InflationinUkraine #UkraineEconomy #WarinUkraine
Despite the ongoing war, Ukrainian retail is recovering. The retail sentiment index, which is calculated monthly by the Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centers, shows that the shopping and entertainment center market in Ukraine has recovered by about 66%. ... #retailUkraine #ShoppingCentersUkraine #ShoppingMallTraffic #UkraineEconomy
More than 80% of businesses have resumed work after the shutdown in 2022. In 2023, almost 91% of small and medium-sized enterprises, forced to suspend their activities in 2022 due to military operations, resumed their work. By the end of the year, a little more than 82% of ... #BusinessduringWar #UkraineEconomy #UkrainianEnterprises #бізнесвУкраїні
Ukraine’s largest retail chains face a personnel crisis due to the war. According to Forbes, there is a significant shortage of men to work at ATB, Auchan, and Comfy stores. The main obstacle is that these positions are usually filled by draft-age men. Among the reasons f... #ATBmarket #AuchanUkraine #Comfy #JobInUkraine #MobilizationUkraine #UkraineEconomy
The EBRD is ready to invest up to €15B in the Ukrainian economy but expects the continuation of reform efforts. During the Munich Security Conference, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso said that since the start of the war against Ukraine, the EBRD has invested €3.8B in the Ukrainian economy. In the next five ye... #ebrd #InvestmentsinUkraine #MunichSecurityConference #OdileRenaudBasso #UkraineEconomy
Investment company Dragon Capital has updated its forecast for Ukraine’s economy. The growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2024 will slow to approximately 4% from almost 6% in 2023, with an increase in inflation to 8% from 5.1% last year. At the end of the year, the exchange rate will ... #DragonCapital #financialaidforUkraine #GDPinUkraine #InflationinUkraine #TomasFiala #UkraineEconomy
The Ukrainian maritime corridor’s 2024 forecast: The opening of the temporary sea corridor in August last year had a huge positive impact on the export of all types of goods and the country’s entire economy. In total, 736 ships, which transpor... #UkraineEconomy #UkraineMaritimeCorridor #UkrainianShipInsurance #UNITYinsurance #ВідвантаженнятоварівУкраїна
In January, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 3.5% with help from logistics and investment. January’s GDP growth compared to December 2023 occurred due to investment demand generated by the budget, and the availability of foreign markets for domestic manufacturers due to the expansion of log... #GDPinUkraine #UkraineEconomy #UkraineMaritimeCorridor #ВідвантаженнятоварівУкраїна
Nasdaq will help Ukraine develop markets and entrepreneurship. The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine and the Nasdaq signed a memorandum of understanding designed to strengthen the Ukrainian economy and capital market. As part of the agreement, Nasdaq and the ministr... #BusinessDevelopment #NASDAQ #UkraineEconomy #YuliyaSvyridenko
The number of shopping malls in the capital will soon increase by 50 new facilities. In the coming years, 50 new shopping and entertainment centers may appear in Kyiv. To the existing shopping centers with 2.5 million square meters, in 2024-2025 developers plan to construct facilities... #retailUkraine #ShoppingMallsUkraine #UkraineEconomy #UTG #VaccinationCentersKyiv
Ukraine plans to introduce preferential conditions for manufacturers of electric vehicles and use domestic lithium to manufacture batteries. “We plan to establish the production of electric cars for domestic needs and export. Our domestic needs are so high that, in the next 5-10 years, we can work to saturate the national market,R... #DenysShmyhal #ElectricCarProduction #LithiumUkraine #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine has increased its budget revenues, but the deficit reaches 34% of all revenues. From January 1 to February 8, budget revenues increased by 26.9% compared to last year, the NBU reported. Without international financial aid, they increased by 60% due to a 70% increase in tax revenu... #BudgetDeficit #financeUkraine #nbu #TaxesUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineBudgetRevenue #UkraineEconomy
Where do Ukrainians spend 80% of their family budget every month? According to UTG analysis, Ukrainians spend the biggest chunk of their income to survive – expenses for communal services and food occupy 80% of Ukrainian families’ budgets. Expenditures o... #FamilyBudget #UkraineEconomy #Ukrainians'spending #UTG
Without help from the US, Ukraine will have to expand its borrowing: What else is foreseen in Ukraine’s Plan B? Ukraine is working on a plan to cover the budget deficit without US support. The plan includes three elements: expanding domestic bond sales, raising taxes, and cutting spending. It is to be proposed ... #financialaidforUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineBudgetDeficit #UkraineEconomy #UkraineFacility
Here are the reasons for the slowdown of inflation in Ukraine and new risks for an opposite trend. Several factors influenced the slowdown in inflation in January of this year. For example, aggregate demand has decreased significantly – by 25% compared to before the full-scale invasion, said ... #BohdanDanylyshyn #CurrencyMarket #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Britain extends duty-free trade with Ukraine for five years, and trade has increased by 20% to $1.4B. The UK Department for Business and Trade announced that duty-free trade will be extended for all goods for five years, except for eggs and poultry, for which the regime will be extended only for two y... #DutyFreeTrade #UkraineBritainTrade #UkraineEconomy #YuliyaSvyridenko #ВідвантаженнятоварівУкраїна
Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has assessed Ukraine’s banking sector. Ukraine’s banking sector has demonstrated considerable resilience during the war, aided by supportive monetary policy and lenient regulation, Fitch Ratings notes. “We expect the main lendi... #CreditRatingUkraine #financeUkraine #FitchRatings #UkraineBankingSector #UkraineEconomy
Top ICU analysts forecast the recovery of the Ukrainian economy in the coming years. The ICU’s Head of the Macroeconomic Research Department, Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, said the economy will mostly recover at rates between 3% and 5% over the next two to three years. However, an economic jum... #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy #UkraineRecovery #VitalyVavryshchuk
The NBU predicts a further decrease in the key policy rate. Most of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank predict a reduction of the discount rate to 14% by the end of the year. They believe that the NBU can return to lowering the d... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineMonetaryPolicy
The NBU explains why the hryvnia strengthened at the beginning of the year. In January 2024, the situation on Ukraine’s foreign exchange market gradually improved, recovering amidst the fading effects of significant budget expenditures at the end of the year, explained NBU De... #AndriiPyshnyi #financeUkraine #Hryvnia #hryvniaexchangerate #nbu #UkraineEconomy #YuriGeletiy
Analysts calculate the damage caused by the border closure and give their forecast for the coming months. The blockade of Ukraine’s western borders by protesters since the fall of 2023 has led to decreased exports and imports. At the same time, the flow of goods was quickly directed in other ways. T... #BorderBlockade #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineEconomyLosses #UkrainePolandCheckpoints #ВідвантаженнятоварівУкраїна
