How did Ukraine’s economy react to the beginning of Russian aggression in 2014 and the full-scale war in 2022?

Ukraine’s GDP did not fall as much in 2014 as it did in 2022, when it suffered a record-setting decline. In 2014-2015, GDP fell by 15.8%, and in 2022 – by almost 30%.

However, the trajectory of recovery during the different stages of the Russian invasion is also different: in 2014, GDP fell for two years in a row, but after a year of full-scale war, it showed a recovery of 5.7%.

However, Ukrainians felt their well-being deteriorated more in 2014, resulting from a sharp increase in inflation and the devaluation of the hryvnia. After the full-scale invasion, these phenomena were also present, but on a smaller scale, thanks to unprecedented international support and decisive measures to maintain macro-financial stability.

Devaluation in 2014-2015 reached almost 67%, and inflation over two years was nearly 80%. The situation was radically different in 2022-2023. During 2022’s record fall in GDP, the hryvnia did not depreciate as much, and inflation rates were significantly lower (26.6%). Inflation slowed to 5.1% last year.