The NBU predicts a further decrease in the key policy rate.
Most of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank predict a reduction of the discount rate to 14% by the end of the year. They believe that the NBU can return to lowering the discount rate in the second half of the year if the macroeconomic situation develops close to the expected baseline scenario and a consistent rhythm of international financing is maintained.
Under such conditions, a moderate easing of the interest rate policy will not damage exchange rate stability or spur inflation outside the target range. At the same time, easing interest rates will support credit development and economic recovery.
Most members of the NBU committees expect the discount rate to be 14% at the end of the year, and some members believe it can go as low as 13%. At the same time, the discussion participants agree that the NBU should be ready to adapt the monetary policy in the event of a change in the balance of risks for inflation and economic development.