Ukrainian businesses go into standby mode, taking fewer loans and increasing reserves to record levels. According to the NBU, in 2023 the volume of loans granted to legal entities decreased by 2% to ₴757.5B. If compared with the pre-war period, the reduction is 10 times as large. In 2022, corporate borr... #LoansforBusiness #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #бізнесвУкраїні
The Ministry of Finance received ₴552B from the sale of bonds; Ukrainians have doubled their investments in OVDP. Since the beginning of martial law, it has been possible to attract more than ₴1.2T to the state budget by issuing OVDP bonds. The government raised ₴552.6B ($14.5B) in 2023. The Ministry of Finance n... #Bondssale #financeUkraine #nbu #OVDPselling #UkraineBond
Ukraine’s imports exceed exports by 76%. In 2023, Ukraine imported goods worth $63.5B and exported $36B, according to the State Customs Service. Ukraine imported the most goods from China, $10.4B, Poland $6.6B, and Germany $4.9B. Ukraine exp... #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineForeignTrade #UkraineTrade #Ukrainetradedeficit
The National Bank predicts that loans will become cheaper. After the discount rate’s reduction to 15% in December, loans in Ukraine are likely to become cheaper, according to Deputy Chairman of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk. As he explained, loan rates depend ma... #financeUkraine #LoansUkraine #nbu #SerhiiNikolaychuk #UkraineDeposits
The NBU is considering additional taxation of non-critical imports. In response to the risk of reduced international support, through which a high foreign trade deficit is being financed during wartime conditions, it is worth considering the possibility of limiting no... #nbu #SerhiiNikolaychuk #UkraineBudget #UkraineImport #UkraineTrade #Ukrainetradedeficit
In Ukraine, the yield on deposits has increased, but loans have become more expensive. In December 2023, the average bank interest rate on new consumer hryvnia deposits amounted to 11.7% per annum. A year ago, the figure was 8.2%, NBU data shows. Rates on new consumer deposits in forei... #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #LoansUkraine #nbu
Privatization of state banks can start even before the end of the war. The privatization of state-controlled banks, whose number has increased to five and with a market shareof 56%, can be started even before the end of the war, according to the deputy head of the NBU, K... #KaterynaRozhkova #nbu #oschadbank #PrivatizationUkraine #UkraineBanksPrivatization #Ukrgasbank
ICU analysts provide a forecast for OVDP rates for the next six months. In the coming months, there will be no noticeable reduction in the rates for OVDP because this trend has already played out in the second half of 2023 in response to the gradual decrease in the NBU di... #BondsUkraine #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #OVDPselling
The NBU has summarized the war’s consequences for the Ukrainian economy. The full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation has caused a 30% loss of Ukraine’s GDP. Also, the forced exodus of Ukrainians in 2022 caused an increase in inflation, said the head of the Nati... #AndriiPyshnyi #GDPinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomy #WarinUkraine
The number of new vacancies in Ukraine has reached pre-war levels. Searches by both employers and job seekers in Ukraine eased in December 2023. This is a typical situation for the end of the year, according to the January Macroeconomic and Monetary Review of the NBU... #ITvacancies #JobInUkraine #nbu #UkraineLaborMarket #VacanciesUkraine
Ukrainian wages have been growing for three quarters in a row, and inflation has fallen below the NBU’s target for the first time in three years. The revival of the economy and the slowdown of inflation have both contributed to the recovery of the growth in real wages since the second quarter of 2023. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, ... #InflationinUkraine #nbu #SalaryUkraine #UkraineEconomy
Due to the war, the share of non-performing business loans increased to 44%. According to the NBU, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the share of NPL in the banking sector had risen to 44% at the beginning of October 2023, and their volume reached ₴359B. “Two rea... #financeUkraine #LoansUkraine #nbu #NPL #NPLukraine
What will the exchange rate be at the beginning of the year? At the start of 2024, the average exchange rate of the dollar may be in the range of ₴37.90-₴38.40, and the average exchange rate of the euro ₴42.10-₴42.60, analysts from the Center of Exchange Techno... #financeUkraine #hryvniaexchangerate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Businesses in Ukraine have downgraded their expectations for business activity. In December 2023, for the third month in a row, Ukrainian businesses have provided their restrained estimates of their current activity’s results. The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) was 4... #BusinessExpectation #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineBusinessExpectation #UkraineEconomy #бізнесвУкраїні
The NBU points to achievements in the financial market during the war. The National Bank has maintained exchange rate stability and switched to managed exchange rate flexibility, which will strengthen the economy and financial system’s adaptability and minimize the... #AndriiPyshnyi #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024
The NBU is working on a new mechanism to insure military risk. The National Bank, together with the World Bank and the EBRD, is preparing a new mechanism to regulate military risk, which is planned to be presented no later than in the first quarter of 2024, the h... #AndriiPyshnyi #InsuranceUkraine #MilitaryRiskInsurance #nbu
The government and the NBU predict an increase in the cost of living in Ukraine. The head of the NBU, Andriy Pyshnyi, said that product prices will rise sharply at the beginning of January. For the first month of the year, growth will be, on average, 5%. As for causes, first, the ... #AndriiPyshnyi #InflationinUkraine #nbu #pricesinUkraine #SerhiyMarchenko #UkraineEconomy
The Ministry of Finance has postponed the repayment of Ukraine’s foreign debts, which will save up to $15B. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko signed an amendment to the Memorandum of Understanding that postpones state and state-guaranteed debt payments with a group of official creditors from the G7 and Pari... #nbu #SerhiyMarchenko #ukrainedebt #UkraineDebtRepayment
The financial stress index in Ukraine is high but stable, so the NBU predicts a further decrease in the key rate. The financial stress index, which measures the level of current threats in the sector, is at a high but stable level, the NBU said, presenting a report on financial stability. The report notes that al... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineBusinessExpectation
The NBU obeserves recovery in the Ukrainian real estate market; companies are building and commissioning new housing. The real estate market is slowly recovering – demand is picking up, primarily in the secondary market. At the same time, the demand for rental properties has increased, and the volume of subsidi... #DIMgroup #HousingConstruction #MortgagesUkraine #nbu #RealEstateUkraine
The IMF insists on increasing bank lending to hasten Ukraine’s recovery. In Ukraine, the level of bank lending is low, which is a significant obstacle to the recovery of the country, according to former member of the NBU Council, Bohdan Danylyshyn. Danylyshyn states that, ... #BankLoans #BohdanDanylyshyn #financeUkraine #imf #LendingInUkraine #nbu
Banks have broken a mortgage record since the beginning of the war. Ukrainian banks issued 826 mortgage loans worth ₴1.3 billion in October, 1.6% more by the number of loans and 6.8% more in amount than in September, according to a monthly survey of banks. “The ... #eOselya #MortgageProgram #MortgagesUkraine #nbu
Following a slowdown in inflation, the NBU lowered the key rate for the fourth time in a row. The National Bank of Ukraine decided to reduce the discount rate from 16% to 15% per annum starting December 15, 2023. The NBU continued its pattern of lowering the discount rate, which began in July,... #AndriiPyshnyi #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu
Ukraine strives to solve its financing problems, but there are risks. Kyiv plans to cover its budget deficit primarily through more than $40B in external financing next year. At the same time, more than two-thirds of this amount has not yet been confirmed. Therefore, Uk... #CurrencyRestrictions #financeUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget #UkraineBudgetDeficit
Ukraine will fully settle with the IMF under the 2018 stand-by program. Ukraine will fully repay the IMF under the 2018 stand-by program, which amounts to $166M at the current exchange rate, said Economist Oleksiy Blinov. According to him, the payment will be provided fro... #imf #nbu #OleksiyBlinov #ukrainedebt #UkraineLoans
Ukraine’s economy is recovering faster than forecast, but how will it do in the next two years? The rate of recovery of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 exceeded initial forecasts, and the locomotive of positive change was the ability of Ukrainian businesses to adapt to the challenging conditions o... #GDPinUkraine #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
Bankers share their forecast for deposit rates through the end of the year. By the end of the year, average rates on hryvnia deposits, depending on the term of the deposits, will remain at 14-14.5% per annum, predicts Globus Bank. It is noted that the average return on deposi... #DepositsInterestRate #financeUkraine #GlobusBank #nbu #UkraineDeposits
Revenues from the sale of bonds by the Ministry of Finance in November exceeded payments by more than ₴24B. For 11 months of the year, borrowing by the Ministry of Finance on the domestic debt market of ₴164.98B in equivalent exceeded payments on bonds of the domestic state loan (OVDP), particularly in Nove... #financeUkraine #nbu #OVDPselling #UkraineBond
In November, the NBU reduced interventions by 27% and canceled all restrictions on the sale of cash currency. The net sale of dollars by the National Bank in November, the second month after the transition from a fixed exchange rate regime to managed flexibility, decreased from $3.34B in October to $2.45B in ... #CurrencyMarket #CurrencyRestrictions #CurrencySale #financeUkraine #nbu
Economic damage from the Polish-Ukrainian border blockade may reach $400M. The interruption of the supply of Ukrainian goods by truck through Poland will affect both the export and import of goods to Ukraine. According to preliminary calculations by the National Bank, in 202... #BorderBlockade #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineForeignTrade #UkrainePolandCheckpoints
Bank profit tax increased to 50% in 2023 and 25% in subsequent years. The Ukrainian Parliament adopted a draft law on a temporary increase in the bank tax rate from an 18% to 50% tax on profits in 2023 and a permanent increase to 25% in the following years. The draft la... #financeUkraine #nbu #TaxesinUkraine #UkraineBanksProfits #UkrainianBanks
The war destroyed foreign currency lending in Ukraine. The Russian full-scale invasion has practically destroyed the demand for foreign currency loans, contributing to the reorientation to lending in the national currency, which is a good indicator for th... #BankLoans #CreditPortfolio #financeUkraine #nbu
This year, the tax on bank’s excess profits may be increased to 50%. The Ministry of Finance will initiate changes to the draft law that was passed in the first reading regarding the taxation of excess bank profits for additional revenues for the state budget next year... #financeUkraine #nbu #TaxesUkraine #UkraineBanksProfits #UkrainianBanks
The government will pay the NBU more than ₴120B for printing the hryvnia last year. According to the National Bank’s calculations, in 2023 the total amount it will receive from the Ministry of Finance for government bonds (OVDP) in its portfolio will amount to ₴120.75B, analysts writ... #BondUkraine #financeUkraine #HryvniaEmission #nbu #OVDPselling
IMF loans have turned out to be the most expensive for Ukraine. As of October 2023, the average cost of servicing all loans granted to Ukraine by external official creditors is about 2.1% per annum, said former NBU executive Bohdan Danylyshyn. According to him, IM... #BohdanDanylyshyn #imf #IMFloans #LoansForUkraine #nbu
The National Bank explained why prices fell in October. The regulator noted that inflation has continued to slow down, primarily due to further growth in the food supply and the preservation of stability in the foreign exchange market. Thus, in October con... #InflationinUkraine #nbu #pricesinUkraine #UkraineEconomy
The NBU is studying the use of central banks’ retail digital currencies. The National Bank of Ukraine is exploring the possibility of using retail digital currencies from central banks, or CBDCs, for cross-border operations, the NBU said. As the central bank explained, who... #CBDC #digitalcurrency #DigitalCurrencyUkraine #E_hryvnia #nbu
Hryvnia deposit profits will change in Ukraine. In November, Ukrainians can expect a drop in interest rates on hryvnia deposits. Interest will be 14-14.5% on average, but the return on deposits may rise to 6-7%, the experts say. This month, the mai... #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #nbu
Ukraine’s international reserves decreased for the third month in a row. In October, they fell by 1.9% to $38.97B, NBU data shows. The bank explains that the dynamics last month were caused by the NBU’s interventions and the country’s debt payments in foreign c... #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #NationalBankReserves #nbu #UkraineInternationalReservs
The NBU plans to lower the key policy rate to 15% in December. A majority among members of the NBU’s Monetary Policy Committee expect the discount rate to decrease by one percentage point to 15% in December, the NBU reported. Accordingly, adjustments to other NBU... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu
By the end of the year, Ukraine needs to attract more than $9B in international aid, which will decrease in 2024-2025. The amount of international financial aid that Ukraine has received this year will exceed $45B, but in the next two years it will gradually decrease to $38.5B and $25B, respectively, the NBU predicts.... #financialaidforUkraine #imf #nbu #SupportUkraine #UkraineBudget
The IMF has started reviewing the EFF program with Ukraine. On November 6, the IMF mission began discussing the second review of the extended financing program with Ukrainian authorities, said IMF Resident Representative to Ukraine, Vahram Stepanyan. The NBU c... #AndriiPyshnyi #EFFprogram #imf #IMFprogramforUkraine #nbu #VahramStepanyan
Large harvests allow the NBU to improve its GDP forecast for this year. According to the Inflation Report for October, an estimate of real GDP growth is due to a better-than-expected harvest of major crops. The National Bank improved its real GDP growth estimate by the en... #GDPinUkraine #HarvestUkraine2023 #KakhovkaHPP #nbu #UkraineEconomy
The National Bank and the Ukrainian government have updated price forecasts in Ukraine. At the end of this year, consumer price growth will slow to 5.8% from 26.6% in 2022. The faster-than-expected inflation decrease is primarily the result of greater food supply following higher harvest... #InflationinUkraine #nbu #pricesinUkraine #UkraineEconomy
How will the Ukrainian income and employment situation change over the next two years? According to the NBU, unemployment will continue to decline but remain higher than pre-invasion levels. It is expected to decrease to almost 19% this year, to 16.5% next year, and below 15% in 2025. T... #nbu #SalaryUkraine #UkraineIncome #UnemploymentUkraine
Ukrainian business modestly assessed the results of its work in October. “Remaining significant security risks, destruction of production facilities, exporters’ logistical restrictions, narrowing of investment demand, growth of fuel prices, and shortage of qualified ... #BusinessActivityExpectations #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #бізнесвУкраїні
Liquidated Zlatobank is for sale with a starting price of more than ₴10B. The Deposit Guarantee Fund liquidated Zlatobank and will sell its assets at auction on November 15 in the Prozorro.Sales system. The initial price for the bank’s assets is almost ₴10.6B ($290M). The l... #nbu #PrivatizationUkraine #ProzorroAuction #Prozorrosales #Zlatobank
The NBU has lowered the key policy rate to 16% per annum. The Board of the National Bank has decided to reduce the discount rate from 20% to 16% per annum starting October 27. By doing this the National Bank will make it equal to the rate on overnight certif... #financeUkraine #InterestRate #KeyPolicyRate #nbu
The Ministry of Finance has attracted almost ₴23B from the sale of OVDP bonds. On October 24, the Ministry of Finance placed domestic state loan bonds (OVDP) for the total amount of ₴22.91B, significantly reducing the rates for securities denominated in hryvnia. The state receiv... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #OVDPselling #UkraineBond
Banks forecast a decrease in deposit rates, but Ukrainians keep increasing their balances. Most financial institutions expect a decrease in the amount of deposited funds in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the survey by the NBU. Instead, third quarter data shows an increase in house... #BankDepositsinUkraine #DepositGuaranteeFund #financeUkraine #nbu
