How will the Ukrainian income and employment situation change over the next two years?

According to the NBU, unemployment will continue to decline but remain higher than pre-invasion levels. It is expected to decrease to almost 19% this year, to 16.5% next year, and below 15% in 2025.

The bank also reports that individual income has resumed growth. According to the results of 2023, incomes in nominal terms will increase by almost 18% and in real terms (excluding inflation) by approximately 4%. In 2024-2025, the real income of Ukrainians will also grow by more than 6% per year.

In turn, the government improved its growth forecast for actual Ukrainian salaries in its revised draft of the 2024 state budget. In 2023, the nominal salary will be ₴18,527($506), and adjusted for inflation will increase by 10.1% (previously by 5.2%). In 2024, the salary will be ₴21,809 ($595), and adjusted for inflation, it will increase by 8.5% (previously by 6%).