What will the exchange rate be at the beginning of the year? At the start of 2024, the average exchange rate of the dollar may be in the range of ₴37.90-₴38.40, and the average exchange rate of the euro ₴42.10-₴42.60, analysts from the Center of Exchange Techno... #financeUkraine #hryvniaexchangerate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Last year, the budget received more than ₴1.2 trillion in tax revenues. According to the State Tax Service, income (balance) to the consolidated budget in 2023 from taxes will amount to ₴1.213T. The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine’s budget indicators for the collected reve... #financeUkraine #TaxesinUkraine #UkraineBudget #UkraineBudgetRevenue
The NBU points to achievements in the financial market during the war. The National Bank has maintained exchange rate stability and switched to managed exchange rate flexibility, which will strengthen the economy and financial system’s adaptability and minimize the... #AndriiPyshnyi #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024
Preferential loans for businesses will cost the state ₴5B this year. The state’s debt to banks for interest compensation under the 5-7-9% Affordable Loans program will reach ₴5B by the end of the year, the head of the parliament’s finance committee, Danylo ... #5-7-9loanprogram #AffordableLoansUkraine #DanyloHetmantsev #financeUkraine #LoansUkraine
Ukrainians think that the country’s economic condition has worsened. In December, assessments of the economic situation in Ukraine worsened, and optimism about the country’s economic situation in the medium-term perspective also decreased. It is noted that Ukrain... #EconomicConditionUkraine #financeUkraine #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
The financial stress index in Ukraine is high but stable, so the NBU predicts a further decrease in the key rate. The financial stress index, which measures the level of current threats in the sector, is at a high but stable level, the NBU said, presenting a report on financial stability. The report notes that al... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineBusinessExpectation
Ukraine launches Plan B due to delayed funding from Western allies. Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko noted that the ministry is confident of receiving Western aid in 2024 but not in January and February. The EU will consider financial assistance for Ukraine on Februa... #financeUkraine #financialaidforUkraine #SerhiyMarchenko #SupportUkraine #UkraineBudget2024
Bankers forecast a 3% decrease in rates for deposits and loans in Ukraine in 2024. Under favorable economic, military, and political conditions in 2024, rates for bank loans and deposits may decrease by an average of 3%, according to the head of Globus Bank, Serhii Mamedov. He assum... #BankDepositsinUkraine #BankLoans #financeUkraine #GlobusBank #SerhiyMamedov #UkrainianBanks
Bankers name the obstacles to attracting foreign investment to Ukraine. The top manager of Ukrsibbank, Dmytro Tsapenko, said: “A new restraining factor that appeared after the war began is currency restrictions, for example, restrictions on the payment of dividends ... #CurrencyRestrictions #financeUkraine #InvestmentsinUkraine #Ukrsibbank
The IMF insists on increasing bank lending to hasten Ukraine’s recovery. In Ukraine, the level of bank lending is low, which is a significant obstacle to the recovery of the country, according to former member of the NBU Council, Bohdan Danylyshyn. Danylyshyn states that, ... #BankLoans #BohdanDanylyshyn #financeUkraine #imf #LendingInUkraine #nbu
Following a slowdown in inflation, the NBU lowered the key rate for the fourth time in a row. The National Bank of Ukraine decided to reduce the discount rate from 16% to 15% per annum starting December 15, 2023. The NBU continued its pattern of lowering the discount rate, which began in July,... #AndriiPyshnyi #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu
Ukraine strives to solve its financing problems, but there are risks. Kyiv plans to cover its budget deficit primarily through more than $40B in external financing next year. At the same time, more than two-thirds of this amount has not yet been confirmed. Therefore, Uk... #CurrencyRestrictions #financeUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget #UkraineBudgetDeficit
Ukrainians are increasing their government bond investments. In 2022, the population’s share of the OVDP portfolio increased by ₴5.1B, and in 2023, it increased by ₴20.9B to ₴51.2B. The simplification of purchasing OVDP bonds facilitated this trend. Until recen... #BondsUkraine #DiiaAppUkraine #financeUkraine #OVDPselling #SenseBank #Ukrgasbank
In Ukraine, non-transparent capital flows are twice as large as transparent ones. According to the Center for Economic Strategy, the share of domestic private constructive capital in Ukraine is about 22%, while corrosive capital is about 46%. Corrosive capital represents opaque cap... #ConstructiveCapital #CorrosiveCapital #financeUkraine #UkraineEconomy
Bankers share their forecast for deposit rates through the end of the year. By the end of the year, average rates on hryvnia deposits, depending on the term of the deposits, will remain at 14-14.5% per annum, predicts Globus Bank. It is noted that the average return on deposi... #DepositsInterestRate #financeUkraine #GlobusBank #nbu #UkraineDeposits
Revenues from the sale of bonds by the Ministry of Finance in November exceeded payments by more than ₴24B. For 11 months of the year, borrowing by the Ministry of Finance on the domestic debt market of ₴164.98B in equivalent exceeded payments on bonds of the domestic state loan (OVDP), particularly in Nove... #financeUkraine #nbu #OVDPselling #UkraineBond
In November, the NBU reduced interventions by 27% and canceled all restrictions on the sale of cash currency. The net sale of dollars by the National Bank in November, the second month after the transition from a fixed exchange rate regime to managed flexibility, decreased from $3.34B in October to $2.45B in ... #CurrencyMarket #CurrencyRestrictions #CurrencySale #financeUkraine #nbu
This fall, Ukrainian consumers’ optimism has fallen to its lowest level since last summer. The Ukrainian consumer sentiment index decreased by 2.8 points to 79.9 points in October. This is the lowest that the indicator has been since August 2022, when it was 75.3 points. At the same time, t... #BusinessActivityExpectations #ConsumerPrices #financeUkraine #UkraineEconomy
Ukrainians have taken ₴29B worth in microloans and accumulated debt. In nine months of the current year, Ukrainians were issued six million microloans (MFI) worth ₴29.1B. This is more than in 2022 but 40% less than in the corresponding period in 2021, when citizens too... #financeUkraine #MicroCrediting #Microloan
Ukrainians’ trust in banks is growing, and here is why. Over the past year, the volume of deposits in Ukrainian banks increased by more than 8.6%, reaching a record ₴1.14T. Ukrainians keep ₴733B of this amount in the national currency and ₴409B in foreign ... #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #UkraineBankingSystem #UkrainianBanks
Bank profit tax increased to 50% in 2023 and 25% in subsequent years. The Ukrainian Parliament adopted a draft law on a temporary increase in the bank tax rate from an 18% to 50% tax on profits in 2023 and a permanent increase to 25% in the following years. The draft la... #financeUkraine #nbu #TaxesinUkraine #UkraineBanksProfits #UkrainianBanks
The war destroyed foreign currency lending in Ukraine. The Russian full-scale invasion has practically destroyed the demand for foreign currency loans, contributing to the reorientation to lending in the national currency, which is a good indicator for th... #BankLoans #CreditPortfolio #financeUkraine #nbu
This year, the tax on bank’s excess profits may be increased to 50%. The Ministry of Finance will initiate changes to the draft law that was passed in the first reading regarding the taxation of excess bank profits for additional revenues for the state budget next year... #financeUkraine #nbu #TaxesUkraine #UkraineBanksProfits #UkrainianBanks
The government will pay the NBU more than ₴120B for printing the hryvnia last year. According to the National Bank’s calculations, in 2023 the total amount it will receive from the Ministry of Finance for government bonds (OVDP) in its portfolio will amount to ₴120.75B, analysts writ... #BondUkraine #financeUkraine #HryvniaEmission #nbu #OVDPselling
The Ukrainian Treasury lost ₴45M in the first month after introducing a flexible exchange rate. The State Treasury’s hryvnia revenues from the sale of foreign currency following the abolition of the fixed dollar exchange rate were ₴45.18M less than they could have been if the exchange rate had r... #CurrencySale #dollarexchangerate #financeUkraine #UkraineBudget
Ukraine lost almost $49B in 2016-2022 due to insufficient attention to the crypto industry. Legalization of the crypto industry in Ukraine without additional incentives could generate an amount that is 4.9% of GDP. Since 2016, Ukraine has lost $48.8B in direct income to its population and co... #CryptoCurrencyUkraine #CryptoIndustryUkraine #financeUkraine
Hryvnia deposit profits will change in Ukraine. In November, Ukrainians can expect a drop in interest rates on hryvnia deposits. Interest will be 14-14.5% on average, but the return on deposits may rise to 6-7%, the experts say. This month, the mai... #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #nbu
Ukraine’s international reserves decreased for the third month in a row. In October, they fell by 1.9% to $38.97B, NBU data shows. The bank explains that the dynamics last month were caused by the NBU’s interventions and the country’s debt payments in foreign c... #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #NationalBankReserves #nbu #UkraineInternationalReservs
Ukrainians increased their cash savings by $8B. Foreign currency remains the preferred form of savings for Ukrainians. Since the beginning of 2023, the volume of cash foreign currency belonging to citizens and businesses has increased by $8B, said ... #BohdanDanylyshyn #CashCurrency #CurrencySale #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits
The NBU plans to lower the key policy rate to 15% in December. A majority among members of the NBU’s Monetary Policy Committee expect the discount rate to decrease by one percentage point to 15% in December, the NBU reported. Accordingly, adjustments to other NBU... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu
The NBU has lowered the key policy rate to 16% per annum. The Board of the National Bank has decided to reduce the discount rate from 20% to 16% per annum starting October 27. By doing this the National Bank will make it equal to the rate on overnight certif... #financeUkraine #InterestRate #KeyPolicyRate #nbu
The Ministry of Finance has attracted almost ₴23B from the sale of OVDP bonds. On October 24, the Ministry of Finance placed domestic state loan bonds (OVDP) for the total amount of ₴22.91B, significantly reducing the rates for securities denominated in hryvnia. The state receiv... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #OVDPselling #UkraineBond
The flow of foreign currency to Ukraine is decreasing, increasing risk for the hryvnia. Over the past few months, currency inflows to Ukraine have significantly decreased, which is explained by two factors: the deficit of foreign trade and the reduction of financial aid from partner coun... #financeUkraine #financialaidforUkraine #foreigncurrency #Hryvnia #UkraineForeignTrade
Banks forecast a decrease in deposit rates, but Ukrainians keep increasing their balances. Most financial institutions expect a decrease in the amount of deposited funds in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the survey by the NBU. Instead, third quarter data shows an increase in house... #BankDepositsinUkraine #DepositGuaranteeFund #financeUkraine #nbu
Bankers predict that in 2024 businesses will need ₴100-150B under the State Program Affordable Loans at 5-7-9%. Bankers think that this demand will be observed from small and medium-sized businesses. It is assumed that, depending on the interest rate, the loan amount, etc., that in 2024 the potential number of ... #5-7-9loanprogram #AffordableLoansUkraine #BankLoans #financeUkraine
Demand for loans is recovering in Ukraine. In the third quarter, banks recorded increased demand for commercial and individual hryvnia loans, the NBU reports. Most banks expect further commercial and retail loan portfolio growth in the next 12... #BankLoans #CreditPortfolio #financeUkraine #nbu
Bankers lower their expectations for the hryvnia to dollar exchange rate for the next year. Bankers, financial analysts, business managers, and private individuals predict that the exchange rate will be close to ₴40/$1 or higher in the next 12 months, reported the NBU. In October 2023, finan... #dollarexchangerate #financeUkraine #Hryvnia #nbu #SerhiiNikolaychuk
Ukrainians hold more than $100B in cash. The total amount of cash savings belonging to consumers and businesses in foreign currency outside banks in Ukraine is $116B, NBU Council member Bohdan Danylyshyn said. “Households and businesse... #AssetsOfUkrainians #CashCurrency #financeUkraine #nbu #ukraineassets
Military bonds in September brought the budget ₴23B. According to the Ministry of Finance, about ₴185B in military bonds were issued in the nine full months of the year. As of the end of September, Ukrainian citizens owned military bonds worth about ₴25... #BondSalesUkraine #financeUkraine #UkraineBond #UkraineBudget #Ukrainemilitarybonds
This year, the sale of state debt securities replenished the budget with ₴400B. In the nine full months of the year, the Ukrainian government raised almost ₴400B ($11B) in equivalent from the placement of OVDP bonds at auctions. In total, more than ₴650B has been raised during ma... #financeUkraine #MilitaryBond #nbu #UkraineBond #UkraineBudget
The NBU is introducing a flexible dollar exchange rate. As the National Bank explained, “The regulator will carefully monitor the situation in the foreign exchange market and remain a key player. To provide stability, the NBU will compensate for the ... #CurrencyMarket #dollarexchangerate #financeUkraine #Hryvnia #nbu
Since the war began, Ukrainian banks have exported more than $720M worth of currency and metals and imported $10.4B. In particular, through August, banks exported more than $537M in cash abroad, NBU statistics show. Most likely, the banks exported the cash to exchange abroad for electronic currency. Perhaps these ar... #financeUkraine #foreigncurrency #PreciousMetals #Ukraineinternationalreserves
The NBU favors reducing the key policy rate to 18% by the end of the year. Nine out of 11 NBU Monetary Policy Committee members spoke in favor of lowering the discount rate to 20% in September. The majority of committee members decided that a moderate 2% discount rate reduct... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Ukrainians are depositing more money: individual deposits increased by ₴5.2B in August. The total amount of consumer deposits (including individual entrepreneurs) in Ukrainian banks in August 2023 increased by ₴5.2B, and on September 1, is ₴1.115T, the Deposit Guarantee Fund reported. Of... #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #UkrainianBanks
US and German securities have entered circulation in Ukraine, and foreigners can buy Ukrainian bonds online. As the Ministry of Finance clarified, “This became possible thanks to the joint efforts of the Ministry of Finance, the National Securities Commission, the NBU, and the ICU financial group, whic... #BondsUkraine #financeUkraine #GermanSecurities #OVDPselling #USsecurities
Since the war, Ukrainians and businesses have increased their purchases of military bonds by 59%, while communities have spent only 1.1%. According to the Ministry of Finance, as of September 20 Ukraine’s citizens increased the OVDP portfolio by ₴22.2B (by 87%) to ₴ 47.7B. Legal entities increased their security purchases by ₴39.9... #BondsUkraine #financeUkraine #OVDPselling
In the second quarter, Ukraine’s gross external debt increased to 92.7% of GDP. The amount of debt increased by $8.8B and, at the end of the half-year, amounted to $148.6B, the National Bank informs. In the second quarter, the public sector’s external debt increased to $84.... #financeUkraine #GDPinUkraine #nbu #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine will start selling military bonds abroad. According to the WSJ, Ukraine wants to sell military bonds to foreign individuals, mainly from Western Europe, as the government continues to seek ways to finance its military spending. According to a... #BondSalesUkraine #financeUkraine #nbu #ukrainebonds #UkraineEconomy
The NBU has eased currency restrictions to improve the FX market’s operation. As National Bank reported, starting from 16 September 2023, when calculating the amount of cash foreign currency that can be sold in the FX market, a bank or a nonbank financial institution will take ... #currencyexchange #CurrencyRestrictions #CurrencySale #financeUkraine #nbu
The yield on deposits fell, and loans in the national currency became cheaper. The average rate in August for new consumer hryvnia deposits decreased to 12.2% per annum and for businesses to 13.4%, according to data from the National Bank. At the same time, the average interest ... #BankLoans #financeUkraine #LoanPortfolio #nbu #UkraineDeposits
