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Monday, August 25 – IMF Review Date Is Not Set

IMF Review Date Is Not Set…Reserves Hit New High.Miracle for Mykolaiv?....Ukraine’s G.I. Business Program…IKEA Boosts Goods…New Car Imports Down….No Combat Losses for 29 Days...
James Brooke
by James Brooke
UBN Morning News is reported and written by James Brooke, a former New York Times foreign correspondent and Bloomberg Moscow Bureau Chief

The IMF has yet to set a date for the review of the Standby Agreement, a review that was to be in September. IMF Ukraine representative Goesta Ljungman tells Hromadske that while “discussions on the implementation of the parameters and indicators of the liquidity program are ongoing, the The IMF has yet to set a date for the review of the Standby Agreement, a review that was to be in September. IMF Ukraine representative Goesta Ljungman tells Hromadske that while “discussions on the implementation of the parameters and indicators of the liquidity program are ongoing, the date of the IMF mission on the first revision of the program has not yet been determined.”

Ukraine received in June a first $2.1 billion tranche of what is to be a $5 billion loan program.

Prime Minister Shmygal says he expects Ukraine will receive the second tranche by the end of this year. Some economic analysts say the IMF switched to observation mode after President Zelenskiy unexpectedly switched the central bank leadership within a month of getting the first IMF tranche.

International reserves reached a new high this month at $28.8 billion, according to the National Bank of Ukraine. Boosted by the IMF tranche, this is the highest level in eight years.

Mykolaiv’s shipbuilding industry is to be revived with a government program designed to create 25,000 new jobs, President Zelenskiy and David Arakhamia, leader of the Servant of the People Rada, promised on a visit Friday to a city that was the Soviet center for shipbuilding in the Black Sea. “We want to restore the former glory of the city of shipbuilders,” Arakhamia said, referring to Mykolaiv whose modern history dates back to the creation of a Russian Navy shipyard in 1789.

The government promises “a national program to support shipbuilding, cheaper credit resources,” Arakhamia said. Later on Friday, Oleh Uruskyi, Minister for Strategic Industries visited the Okean shipyard in Mykolaiv, reported the company website.

Business education for combat veterans and soft loans for veteran-owned startups are government priorities, President Zelenskiy said during an International Volunteer and Veterans Forum in Kyiv. “It’s both military skills and the rules by which all successful companies exist,” he said. “One cannot ignore the experience of other countries, where many veterans are the founders of large, serious, powerful, well-known companies.”

With the minimum monthly wage set to rise to $182 (UAH 5,000) next Tuesday, Zelenskiy says the budget can “definitely support” the hike. On July 1, the minimum wage is to increase by 30%, to UAH 6,500, currently $237. Ukraine’s median monthly wage is $768.

Grain sales were down 18% yoy in July, reports UNIAN citing the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture. Due to bad weather, much of the harvest is late.

Steelmaker ArcelorMittal has transferred 50 million tons of slag to the government for the national road construction program, reports Interfax-Ukraine, citing the company. Earlier this year, Arcelor pushed the government to change regulations to allow construction of concrete roads with slag. Increasingly common across Europe, the use of crushed slag for road construction helps companies cut disposal costs. In turn it cuts costs for building concrete roads. So far this year, 100,000 cubic meters have been used to build roads in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions. The goal is to use almost 500,000 tons this year for roadbuilding.

Interpipe, Ukraine’s largest pipe and wheel producer, will redeem at par 97 million of its 2024 notes this week, according to the company.

IKEA Ukraine plans to offer 5,000 items in its first physical store in Kyiv, says Florian Melle, Ukraine director of Ikea. He said: “A city-format store will open in Kyiv without a food department and restaurant, but we strive to launch them as soon as possible.” Earlier this year, IKEA started operating an online store that proved so successful that the company struggled to keep up with orders. Ikea’s first physical store in Ukraine is to open in Kyiv’s Blockbuster Mall by the end of this year.

Energy traders imported 345,000 megawatts of electricity in the first quarter of 2020, reports NERC. The imported electricity was from Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Belarus.

New car imports are down 36% y-o-y, reports Ukrinform citing Ukravtoprom. The average value of an imported new car is $19,300. Japanese vehicles are the most popular.

Passenger transport is down 56.2% y-o-y, reports the State Statistics Service. Rail was down 58.2%. Motor transport was down by 44.3%.

There have been no combat losses in the eastern regions for the past 29 days,  Zelenskiy said  during his Independence Day speech. “A year ago, I talked about how every morning starts with an SMS message from the General Staff of Ukraine. SMS about the number of wounded and dead for the past day on the front line. The numbers are different, but only one message makes the morning good: wounded – zero, dead – zero. Today, for the 29th day in a row, is a really good morning for me and our whole Ukraine. Yes, we face many new challenges. But today is 29 days since we have no combat losses in the east of Ukraine.”

From the Editor – After Monday’s Independence Day holiday, the Rada – and the Ukraine Business News — are back today. One example of constructive work the Rada can do is the simple legislation passed earlier this year authorizing the use of metallurgical slag for road building. An increasingly common practice in countries with steel industries, this recycling will cut into Ukraine’s slag mountains and help provide the nation with decent roads. Writing tonight from western Turkey, I see clearly how Turkey’s good roads generate economic development. With Best Regards, Jim Brooke

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Tuesday, August 18 – the biggest impact of strikes spreading across Belarus

Belarus Strikes May Starve Ukraine’s Roadbuilders of Asphalt...Belarus Eurobonds: Worst Performers of Emerging Markets...Ukraine’s Garage Sale: Government to Auction Leases for 4,262 Empty Buildings...A Rebound Coming? Ukraine Buys Back GDP Warrants...
James Brooke
by James Brooke
UBN Morning News is reported and written by James Brooke, a former New York Times foreign correspondent and Bloomberg Moscow Bureau Chief

For Ukraine, the biggest impact of strikes spreading across Belarus may be a shortage of asphalt for President Zelenskiy’s $3 billion drive to pave 4,000 km of highways this year. Ukraine imports half of its asphalt in heated, liquid form from Belarus. “Objectively, there is nothing to replace Belarusian volumes — and this is half of the market,” Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group, writes on his Facebook page. “Russian supplies are closed, and Ukrainian traders are just mastering imports by sea.”

Ukraine also gets about one third of its diesel and gasoline from Belarus. But the strikes and slowdowns will only result in a ‘hiccup’ for Ukrainian prices, Kuyun predicts. “First, we have been living with a huge surplus of diesel fuel and gasoline for half a year. Traders sell it to zero at best, the market is so overwhelmed. Second, the Ukrainian market is open for supplies from all sides.”

Most of Ukraine’s imports of Belarus petroleum products come from the Belarus’ largest refinery, in Mazyr, on the Pripyat River, 250 km north of Kyiv. According to Argus Media, it appears that Mazyr workers will be on a 3-hour lunchtime strike this week. At Naftan refinery, near Belarus’ northern border with Lithuania, workers are on strike. The refinery which is owned by Belneftekhim, was already shut down for scheduled maintenance.

On the IT front, Ukrainian IT companies are “already accepting individual divisions of IT companies in Belarus as guests,” Olha Kunichak, manager of the European Business Association’s IT Committee tells Interfax-Ukraine. “Ukrainian IT companies are ready to cooperate and help our northern neighbors.” To restrict protesters, the Belarus government has been shutting off the Internet. Ukraine started this summer a fast track program to grant work permits to foreign IT specialists. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, Ukrainian universities only graduate 15-17,000 IT specialists annually, while the fast-growing sector needs 40,000 a year.

Belarus Eurobonds handed investors a loss of 5.1% this month, the worst performance in emerging markets, according to a Bloomberg Barclays index. Since the 2031 bonds were issued on June 25, the yield is up by one percentage point.

Ukraine is recalling its ambassador from Belarus to protest Lukashenko’s “repeated and groundless” statements against Ukraine, Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said yesterday. President Lukashenko’s return to of Russia mercenaries who had fought on the separatist side in the Donbas war, “derailed the trust between our nations and inflicted a heavy blow upon our bilateral relations,” Kuleba said.

Leases for 4,262 empty buildings totaling 2.5 million square meters – or 10 times New York’s Empire State Building – will go up for electronic auction this fall under streamlined rules approved last week by the Cabinet of Ministers, announces Leonid Antonenko of the privatization department of the State Property Fund. The full of list of leases to auctioned by ProZorro.Sales includes: 1,070 offices, 837 warehouses, 566 factories, 61 spaces at airports, and six sites for renewable energy plants at Chornobyl. While much of the vacant space is in the big five cities, there are thousands of square meters up for lease in Cherkasy, Kropyvnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Rivne and Zaporizhia.

Ukraine ranks first in a ranking of 39 Eastern European and developing countries for public procurement transparency. Following 64 indicators for the Transparency Rating, the authors placed Ukraine at the top with a score of 97% and Tajikistan at the bottom with a score of 38%. Poland got  74%, Hungary 67% and the Czech Republic 65%. Russia and Belarus were not studied by the group, the Soros-funded Institute for the Development of Freedom of Information. For the last four years, all government purchases of goods worth more than $7,300 have to go through the ProZorro on line tendering system.

Ukraine’s Finance Ministry has repurchased about 10% of outstanding GDP-linked securities, the Finance Ministry announced Friday on the Irish Stock Exchange. Known as GDP warrants, the securities have payouts triggered by two consecutive years of GDP growth. By spending up to $300 million to quietly buy back these securities, the government may be expecting a post-Coronavirus growth bounce next year. After Ukraine’s economy GDP fell 11.4% in Q2, the central bank predicts that economy will shrink by 6% this year, and rebound by 4% next year.

Concorde Capital’s Alexander Paraschiy calculates that the purchase was at 90% of par and writes: “This is also a good signal for the holders of GDP warrants, as it indicates MinFin is anticipating large payments under the warrants in the mid-term.”

Timothy Ash writes: “Now most official forecasts have a 4% plus growth for 2021.With the changes at the [central bank], the Zelenskiy administration is going for a pro-growth agenda, which might mean lower rates, cheaper currency, perhaps looser fiscal – note minimum wage hikes.

In a sign the Corona-recession has eased, Ukraine’s electricity consumption in July was only 0.7% below last year’s level, according to Ukrenergo, the nation’s state power transmission company.  Industrial consumption was down 3.2% yoy, but household consumption was up 4.7% and consumption by chemical industries was up 15%.

The central bank expects to receive the second tranche from the IMF by the end of this year, Kyrylo Shevchenko, the new governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, says in an interview with RBK-Ukraina. The IMF approved the 18-month, $5 billion program on June 9, and the first tranche — $2.1 billion — was disbursed three days later. Release of the remaining $2.9 billion depends on four reviews. However, Shevchenko’s predecessor, Yakiv Smoliy quit on July 1, citing pressure from President Zelenskiy. Since then, talk of a September review has faded.

Last week, the central bank bought $223 million, strengthening the hryvnia mildly to UAH 27.3/$1. So far this year, the National Bank of Ukraine has bought $1 billion more than it sold, latest data show. Demand for dollars this summer has been weak as vacationers are largely bottled up inside the country, unable to take advantage of visa-free access to the EU.

Last year, Ukrainians made 26 million trips out of the country, while foreigners made 15 million trips here, according to the State Statistics Service. Tourism accounts for only 1.5% of Ukraine’s GDP, well below Belarus – 6.4% — and Georgia – 26.3%. To generate more inbound tourism, Ukraine has dropped visa requirements for Chinese tourists and allowed Indians, South Africans and Filipinos to apply for visas on line. “Simple arithmetic shows the advantages of visa liberalization: the average check of one Chinese tourist in Ukraine is about $950,” says SkyUp, Ukraine’s discount airline. After coronavirus and visa barriers drop, SkyUp mulls launching flights to: China, India, Bahrain Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia.

Reminder: UIA is offering two direct Kyiv-New York-Kyiv flights – next Monday Aug. 24, and the following Monday, Aug. 31. No additional New York flights are scheduled. Tickets only are available through the UIA site:  https://www.flyuia.com/ua/en/home.

From the Editor : In October 1991, I interviewed Stanislav Shushkevich, Belarus’ first president, who was then one month into the job. A smart man, Shushkevich has a doctorate in physics and was, oddly, chosen by authorities in Minsk to teach Russian to the American defector, Lee Harvey Oswald. Reporting for The New York Times, I asked Shushkevich a question of interest to my readers: “How many nuclear bombs do you have?” He responded: “I have no idea. Ask the Red Army.” Then, as in now, the biggest questions in Minsk are often answered 700 km to the east, in Moscow. This week, we may see whether Moscow props up Lukashenko for a few more years, or eases him into a sunny retirement at his hillside chalet above Sochi. With Best Regards Jim Brooke

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Monday, August 17 – “This will be the beginning of your end…” – Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko

Belarus Bends, Ukraine Watches...Ukraine Invites Belarus IT Workers to Move Here...Exports to China Double...Chinese State Co. Wants to Build Deepwater Port in Ochakiv, a Historic Chokehold on the Dnipro...Kharkiv’s Yaroslavsky Offers to Raise $1 billion to Revive City’s Aircraft Plant...Kolomoisky’s Airplane Shell Game?
James Brooke
by James Brooke
UBN Morning News is reported and written by James Brooke, a former New York Times foreign correspondent and Bloomberg Moscow Bureau Chief

“This will be the beginning of your end, you will go down on your knees like in Ukraine,” Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko warned 40,000 supporters in Minsk Sunday, rebutting calls for his resignation. A few hours later, participants at mass opposition rally of 220,000 chanted for Lukashenko to go. After a week of violent police attacks on protesters, policing was light. Workers at key state factories walked out on Friday. Today, state television workers threaten to strike, demanding an end to censorship.

On Saturday, Lukashenko asked President Putin for Russia to intervene militarily. But, according to the Kremlin readout of the call, Putin only promised to keep talking to the besieged 65-year-old leader. In Belarus, protesters do not call for withdrawal from two Moscow-led organizations – the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Without an anti-Moscow slant to the Belarus protest, some analysts drew parallels last night to the 2018 revolution in Armenia. They predict the Kremlin will work with a Belarus democracy movement that does not take aim at Russia.

“Why Vladimir Putin Is Unlikely to Invade Belarus,” headlines an Atlantic Council piece by Anders Aslund, a veteran observer of the region. “While it is impossible to rule out a Russian military intervention, there are numerous good reasons to presume that it will not take place,” Aslund, a Swedish-American economist, writes Sunday from Washington. He cites: Putin’s dislike for the Belarusian leader; Lukashenko’s loss of popular support, and, possibly, security forces support; and “so far, no slogans against Putin or Russia have emerged.” He concludes: “The Kremlin should be able to live with that.”

Belarus is Ukraine’s fourth largest trading partner, largely a transit country for goods restricted by the Russia-Ukraine trade war. Despite this close economic relationship, President Zelenskiy probably will not travel to Grodno, Belarus on Oct. 8-9, for an annual bilateral trade and investment conference. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told UA: Ukrainian Radio on Friday: “Until the situation in Belarus stabilizes, it would be reckless to announce any visit or initiative.”

Eying Belarus’ dynamic IT industry, Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Minister posted an appeal to Belarus IT companies and specialists to relocate south of the border — to Ukraine. “Belarus has been going through one of the deepest political crises in its history,” Mikhalo Fedorov posts on his Facebook page. He says that, under a new recruitment program, foreign IT specialists can get their Ukraine work permits in 5-7 days – “that’s all.” Noting that this year’s quota is 5,000 “highly qualified IT specialists,” he says the national distribution is: Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Lviv regions – 600;  Kharkiv – 700; and Kyiv – 2,500.

A near doubling of exports to China reduced Ukraine’s trade deficit to $1.3 billion for the first half of this year, the lowest level in recent years. The State Statistics Service reports exports to China rose 93%yoy to $3 billion, to Poland dropped 14%, to $1.5 billion; and to Russia dropped 17%, to $1.3 billion. Overall, Ukraine exported $22.9 billion worth of goods and imported $24.2 billion. For imports, Ukraine’s imports from China dropped 7%, to $3.6 billion; from Germany dropped 17%, to $2.5 billion; and from Russia dropped 43%, to $2.2 billion.

China’s purchase of ship parts and R&D services for aircraft engines made it the largest buyer of military equipment from UkrOboronProm during the first half of this year. Of $145 million in sales, the biggest buyers from the state defense conglomerate were: China, Turkey, Pakistan, India, Jordan, Vietnam, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Morocco, and Ethiopia. Of all deliveries, 56% went to Asia-Pacific.

China Railway Construction Corporation is talking with Vadym Novinsky’s Smart Holding about building a deep water port at Ochakiv, a Black Sea port 60 km south of Mykolaiv city. A strategic chokepoint controlled by at least 10 different peoples over the last 2,500 years, Ochakiv is 3.6 km across from the Kinburn Spit, a position that controls shipping to the mouth of the Dnipro. Smart Holding reports the Chinese are discussing doubling the depth of the harbor, to 15-18 meters, building a 70 km rail spur to Mykolaiv, and building port terminals for grain and iron ore, two products that dominate Ukraine’s trade with China, now its largest trading partner.

Given Ochakiv’s strategic location, facing Crimea 100 km to the south, US Navy Seabees built last year a $700,000 operations center at Ochakiv for Ukrainian Navy. When construction was announced, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the Russian nationalist politician, announced: “This is Russian land – Ochakiv.” Next year, several US-supplied Mark VI fast patrol boats are to be based at Ochakiv.

Last month, CRCC, China’s second largest state-owned construction company, signed a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine’s Infrastucture Ministry about modernizing Ukraine’s inland waterways. These are the Dnipro, which flows through Kherson, and the Southern Bug, Ukraine’s second longest navigable river, which passes through Mykolaiv. For both projects, the Chinese team was led by Li Junqiang, executive director of CRCC’s subsidiary CRCC14 Overseas Construction and Development Co Ltd., and Wang Chuang, deputy general director of CRCC’s 14th Bureau Group.

Nibulon, the largest shipper on the Dnipro, is building a Black Sea port complex in Ochakiv and restoring the fish canning factory. To supply the cannery with fish, crustaceans and mollusks from the Dnipro-Buzky estuary, Nibulon’s CEO Oleksiy Vadatursky writes on his Facebook page that he is considering building shallow water fishing vessels at Nibulon’s shipyard in Mykolaiv.

Fresh from announcing a deal with Chinese investors to take over Motor Sich, Ukraine’s jet engine factory, Alekander Yaroslavsky offers to raise $1 billion to revive the aviation plant in his home city of Kharkiv. Earlier, Yaroslavsky’s DCH group rebuilt the terminal of Kharkiv airport and revived production at the Kharkiv Tractor Plant. Kharkiv Aircraft Plant has not made a plane since 2014. It largely survives by making spare parts and performing maintenance. It owes $8 million in back salaries. On Friday, Yaroslavsky offered to raise: $100 million to pay off debts; $500 million to complete airplanes on the production line and to start new ones; and $400 million for design development.

Today, flights resume between Kyiv and Yerevan, Armenia and between Kyiv and Almaty, Kazakhstan. Air service to the two countries was suspended five months ago as part of the coronavirus travel restrictions.

Do the math: Ihor Kolomoisky’s Windrose airline is receiving its 14th aircraft, a leased ATR-72-600. Within a year, Windrose is to receive another five of these regional turboprops, bringing its fleet to 19. At the same time, Kolomoisky’s UIA is cancelling leases and cancelling orders. Currently. UIA’s fleet is down 33, with 14 in storage. In 2013, Kolomoisky’s airline Aerosvit filed for bankruptcy and several jets were transferred to UIA.

From the Editor: What looks like the end game of Belarus’s Lukachenko promises to be entertaining to watch this week.  But in the slow days of August, take a step back for a long look at Ochakiv and who has controlled that narrow entrance to Ukraine’s hinterland. Recorded history starts around 6th Century BC with the Thracians and Scythians. Then came Pontic Greeks, Imperial Romans, Mongol Hordes, Moldavian Kings, Genoese merchants, Crimean Tatars, the Ottoman Empire, a Wallachian Prince, and, in 1788, the Czarist Russians, with an American naval officer, John Paul Jones, commanding the Russian fleet. In the Crimean War, an Anglo-French fleet took command of both sides of the strait in 1855. From 1941-1944, Romanians again occupied Ochakiv. Given the China’s proposal to double navigable depths and build modern terminals in a city with a population of 14,000, one wonders if they are playing the long game in a city that some dismiss as a backwater. With Best Regards Jim Brooke

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Friday, August 14 – Nationwide Safety Checks Start on Ammonium Nitrate Fertilizer

Nationwide Safety Checks Start on Ammonium Nitrate Fertilizer...Behind the Blast: Russian Businessman Abandoned Ship, Cargo, and Ukrainian Crew in Beirut...Avangard May Close Egg Farms in Coming Weeks...Ukraine to Create Domestic Airline Based on Antonov Regional Jets...US Threatens to Stop Sending Oil to Belarus Through Odesa..
James Brooke
by James Brooke
UBN Morning News is reported and written by James Brooke, a former New York Times foreign correspondent and Bloomberg Moscow Bureau Chief

By Sept. 15, all of Ukraine’s ports are to complete “extraordinary measures for government supervision” of the import, handling and storage of ammonium nitrate, Prime Minister Shmygal has ordered. The explosion of 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate in Beirut’s port killed 171 people, wounded 6,500, left 250,000 homeless and cause $15 billion to the port alone.

Ukraine, Europe’s largest food exporter, is a major importer of ammonium nitrate, a key component of fertilizers. Last year, Ukraine imported 716,000 tons, at least seven times the volume of 2016, according to the State Statistics Service. Coming from Georgia, Bulgaria, Turkey and Romania, the chemical compound enters through a dozen ports – from Izmail to Mariupol. Inside the country, there are more than 600 warehouses for ammonium nitrate, Andriy Miselyuk, director of Dialogue Institute for Socio-Political Design, writes on his Facebook page.

At Pivdennyi, Ukraine’s busiest port, 9,600 tons of ammonium nitrate are stored “in accordance with all norms and standards,” the seaport administration says in a statement. The compound is “packed in big bags” at berths No. 1 and 2. “In this case, it is not explosive,” the port asserts, that bulk handling of the compound is dangerous. During the first six months of production, the chances of explosion are low. Ukraine consumes 1.5-2 million tons a year, an amount that makes for a steady rotation of stock. The Beirut stockpile, entirely in bags, was seven years old when it blew up.

Behind the devastating Beirut port explosion was a Russian business man who abandoned his ship, his 8-man Ukrainian crew and his cargo of ammonium nitrate in Beirut in 2013, according to a Reuters story, reported by 12 journalists in 11 cities, from Moscow to Panama City. Police questioned the de facto owner, Igor Grechushkin, aged 43, at his home in Cyprus about the cargo. The ship’s captain Boris Prokoshev, told Reuters from his home in Sochi that he sees Grechushkin and the ship’s charterer, Teto Shipping Ltd, as the same entity. Based in the Marshall Islands, Teto was dissolved in 2014.

Flying the flag of Moldova, a landlocked nation, the ship, the Rhosus, was loaded in Sept. 2013 with 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate produced by Rustavi Azot, a nitrogen producer in Georgia. The cargo was destined for a commercial explosives factory in Mozambique. En route, it developed a leak and docked in Beirut. Four months earlier, safety inspectors in Seville, Spain detained the Rhosus for a series of safety violations, including a corroded deck. In Beirut, Grechushkin ordered the captain to load heavy road building equipment on the deck, reports according to 112.ua.

With the Rhosus disabled by the leak, Grechushkin abandoned the ship and the crew, both news agencies report. Four crew members were forced by Lebanese officials to stay on the ship for 11 months to prevent it from sinking. After a sailors aid group flew them home to Ukraine, the ship sank. According to Prokoshev, the captain, Grechushkin owes at least $150,000 in unpaid salaries. According to 112.ia, Grechushkin lives in Cyprus with his wife Irina, and their son, a student  at a private university in Scotland. Although Cyprus is a 45-minute flight or a 2-hour ferry ride from Beirut, the captain said Grechushkin never came to Beirut to check on the boat. The blast was so massive it was heard — and felt — in Cyprus, 200 km across the Mediterranean.

IFC is supplying a $35 million loan to help Galnaftogaz to improve its supply of fertilizer and fuels to small farmers. The Lviv-based company has pioneered allowing farmers to buy fertilizer and seeds in the spring, paying forward with ‘crop receipts,’ or liens on fall harvests. Galnaftogaz, with 357 OKKO-branded filling stations, is Ukraine’s largest fuel retailer. The loan from IFC, a World Bank unit, will also finance installation of fast-charging stations for electric vehicles.

After good weather in eastern and central Ukraine, the USDA has raised its Ukraine harvest forecasts to: 27 million tons of wheat, and 39.5 million tons of corn. “Yields are expected to be the second highest on record, with a previous record of 7.84 tons per hectare in 2018,” writes the US Department of Agriculture.

Ukraine’s Avangard, Europe’s largest egg producer, may close six of its 20 farms, cutting production by 20% by mid-October, reports Poultry World. UkrLandFarming, Avangard’s parent company, may have to lay off 2,500 employees. Avangard owner Oleg Bakhmatyuk says that due to ongoing court cases against him, he is unable to get bank loans. In 2010, Avangard raised $187.5 million in an IPO on the London Stock Exchange. But Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and occupation of half of Ukraine’s Donbas resulted in Avangard losing valuable properties. Although Avangard produced 2.6 billion eggs in 2018, its debt is estimated at $2 billion.

Next year, Ukraine will create a domestic airline based on a fleet of regional jets produced by Kyiv’s Antonov, Infrastructure Minister Vladyslav Krykliy said yesterday on a visit to Kharkiv State Aircraft Manufacturing Company. “Aircraft manufactured by Antonov will be used for regional transportation,” he said. To boost domestic air travel, Ukraine is abolishing the 20% VAT tax on domestic tickets. Last year, 16 of Ukraine’s 54 civilian airports carried passengers — on scheduled or charter flights. About 5 million people flew out of regional airports.

Betting that corona travel restrictions will ease, SkyUp announces seven new international routes for its winter schedule. Starting Oct. 25, Ukraine’s discount carrier will fly from Kyiv Boryspil to Amman, Belgrade, Bratislava, Belgrade, and Stockholm. It will also start Kharkiv-Dubai and Lviv-Dubai. On Sept. 26, it will start Kyiv-Dubai, a route that is to become five times a week.

Starting today, Ukraine’s new electronic visa platform launches at this address: https://evisa.mfa.gov.ua/. Citizens of India, the Philippines and South Africa will be able to get electronic visas for travel to Ukraine for business, tourism, medical treatment, culture, science, education, sports, and journalism. The e-visa should be printed out to show at border control.

After Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko cracked down violently in the wake Sunday’s presidential election, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington is considering ending oil shipments to Belarus. Most come through Klaipėda, Lithuania, to the Naftan refinery, in northeast Belarus. Several shipments of US oil have come this year through Odesa to Belarus’ southern refinery, in Mazyr, 50 km north of Ukraine. So far this year, Odesa has handled six tanker loads of oil for Belarus, largely from Azerbaijan.

From the Editor: One month ago, I ruffled feathers with news items gathered under the headline: “Will Russia Launch a Military Attack on Ukraine in August?” Now it seems my premonition of a Russian August surprise was off — by a couple of degrees. In Belarus, yesterday’s walkouts from big state-owned companies strengthen calls for a national strike. That could be Lukashenko’s endgame. With the White House distracted in the 81-day runup to the US presidential vote, Moscow could easily pull a Prague 1968 – roll in tanks to restore ‘order.’ Timothy Ash writes: “The Ukrainians are very concerned. They think the Russians’ game plan is take over Belarus, roll tanks up to the border with Ukraine, and then max pressure on Ukraine from the North and East.” Also from London, Keir Giles, writes a Chatham House essay: Watching Belarus Means Watching Russia Too. In Russian intervenes militarily in Belarus, “Ukraine would be forced to rapidly re-orient its defense posture to face a new threat from the north.” With Best Regards Jim Brooke

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Thursday, August 13 – Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine: 200 More State Companies to be Privatized

200 More State Companies to be Privatized...Plans for a $3 billion, 150 km Kyiv Ring Road...Ze Signs Derivatives Law...Flights Leave Kyiv Sikorsky Half Full...
James Brooke
by James Brooke
UBN Morning News is reported and written by James Brooke, a former New York Times foreign correspondent and Bloomberg Moscow Bureau Chief

About 200 more state companies will be transferred to the State Property Fund for privatization, the Cabinet of Ministers decided yesterday. The companies are either unprofitable or are used “for various shady schemes,” Economy Minister Ihor Petrashko told reporters after the meeting. At the same time, the government is cutting by one third – to 200 – the proposed list of state companies exempted from privatization, Prime Minister Shmygal said during the Cabinet Meeting.

Until the coronavirus pandemic started, several foreign investor groups had planned to come to Ukraine this summer to study state companies scheduled for sale. Dmytro Sennychenko, head of the Property Fund, estimates that about half of Ukraine’s 3,000 state companies are bankrupt and will be liquidated. The others will be sold at public, electronic auctions, largely as is. To help foreign investors, the Fund has set up a bilingual Ukrainian-English website with ‘data rooms’ on each property up for sale. To speed the sale of distilleries from Ukrspirt, the state alcohol producer, the Cabinet of Ministers yesterday passed a key package of regulations setting sale conditions.

Ukravtodor presented yesterday a project to build $3 billion, 150km, three quarter circle Kyiv ring road. Designed to intercept traffic about 40 km outside capital, the bypass would link all major international highways that converge on Kyiv – from Kovel, Lviv, Odesa, Boryspil, Kharkiv and Chernihiv. Designed to carry 300,000 cars a day, the bypass road would include a new, 6 km bridge over the Dnipro, to be built south of Pivdenniy (South) Bridge. At the presentation, the national highway agency announced a tender for the first of six sections: a 35 km stretch between the Kyiv-Lviv and Kyiv-Odesa highways. If full financing can be arranged, the new ring road could be completed by 2030.

A US company is negotiating with Mykolaiv regional authorities to build a $250 million waste recycling plant for the entire region, Alexander Stadnik, regional head, tells NikVesti, a local news site.  For convenience, the plant would be located in Nova Odesa district, in the center of Mykolaiv oblast, reports Delo.ua. Stadnik did not identify the company, but said it is ready to start investing.

Fighting to preserve a joint venture with a Chinese company to control Ukraine’s aircraft engine maker, Ukraine’s DCH conglomerate told Reuters and NV business news site yesterday that it has signed an agreement to buy “more that 25% of shares” in the company, Motor Sich.  Addressing fears that design and production would move to China, DCH, a Kharkiv-based group, told NV: “DCH will have the right to veto key business decisions.” NV speculated that joint venture idea was developed last November during a meeting in Kharkiv between Oleksandr Yaroslavsky, owner of DCH, and Jack Ma, founder of China’s Alibaba Group. DCH says Ukraine Antimonopoly Committee should decide on the case by the end of this year.

President Zelenskiy signed a law creating the legal and regulatory framework for derivatives – the financial instrument that helps to provide hedging opportunities against prices, interest rates or currency rate movements. Scheduled to go into effect next July 1, the law would allow such derivatives as swaps, which will allow Ukrainian banks, farmers and manufacturers, to hedge their foreign exchange exposures. Required under the IMF’s current standby agreement with Ukraine, the law was drawn up by the National Securities and Stock Market Commission working with experts from the EBRD.

Timur Khromaev, head of the Commission, said of the derivatives law: “It represents a big step forward in creating the conditions in which our economy can move to a more sophisticated stage of development.” Matteo Patrone, EBRD’s regional Managing Director said: “The new law will contribute to the establishment of a derivatives market in Ukraine. This is a major step forward to putting Ukraine on investors’ radar screens.”

The day after President Zelenkiy signed the law legalizing gambling, Parimatch, the largest betting company in Ukraine, announced that it will bid for hotel casino licenses in Ukraine. Founded in Kyiv in 1994, Parimatch has moves largely online, accepting bets on sporting events, e-sports, elections, show business, Eurovision and the Nobel Prize. With 1,600 employees, the company largely operates in Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Cyprus, where it has its headquarters.

The Finance Ministry raised the equivalent of $366 million in its weekly government bond auction Tuesday – virtually the same amount as one week earlier. To keep, hryvnia rates from rising, the Ministry rejected the equivalent of $75 million worth of bids. Interest rates were little changed with 4-month bonds going for 7% and 2-year bonds going for 10%. By contrast, the Ministry satisfied 26 of 27 bidders for 1.5 month USD-denominated bonds at 3.6%.

Concorde Capital’s Evgeniya Akhtyrko concludes: “There is no improvement in the sentiments of the broader circle of market players regarding the risk level of UAH debt at the moment.”

Planes left Kyiv Sikorsky Airport half full last month. In July, Kyiv’s right bank airport handled 1,314 flights — 48% the number of flights of one year earlier. But the number of passengers was only 52,400 – 20% the level of one year earlier. The most popular international destinations were: Warsaw; Tivat, Montenegro; London Luton; Minsk; Dalaman, Turkey; Wroclaw, Poland; Bodrum. Turkey; and Tirana, Albania.

SkyUp Airlines returned in July to 50% of its pre-coronavirus traffic levels. Operating 704 domestic and international flights from Kyiv Boryspil, the low cost airline carried 96,407 passengers in July.  Of its regularly scheduled foreign destinations, Albania was more popular than Bulgaria. For charters, Turkey was more popular than Egypt.

Air Astana resumes flights between Almaty and Kyiv Boryspil next Wednesday. From Almaty, the Kazakh national carrier flies to 26 destinations, including Beijing and Delhi. Air Astana suspended flights to Ukraine five months ago.

The day after President Zelenskiy signed a law giving tax breaks to foreign film productions, Kyiv City officials announced a list of streets to be closed Aug. 12-25 for the filming of a Jean-Claude Van Damme film — ‘The Last Mercenary.’ Since most of this Netflix ‘comedy action movie’ takes place in France, it appears that Kyiv will be dressed up to look like a French city. Van Damme, a Belgian, is known to American fans as ‘The Muscles from Brussels.’

From the Editor: The attitude at the Kyiv headquarters of the State Property Fund is to move state companies out the door. Fund Head Sennychenko is frank that he has neither the time nor the resources to clean up 3,000 companies before sale. For Eastern Europe, this will be the region’s last big privatization sale (assuming Tyrannosaurus Rex prevails in Belarus). For investors in Ukraine, all Sennychenko can promise is transparent presentations and honest auctions. Properties will be presented as is, poison pills and all. Compared to the Wild East, shoot ‘em up days of Russia’s privatizations in the early 1990s, Kyiv-in-the-time-of-corona is mildly inconvenient, but not a physical risk. With Best Regards Jim Brooke