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Next year, GDP will grow by 4.6%, in 2025, the growth rate will accelerate to 6.8%, and in 2026, it will slow to 6.6%. The growth of consumer prices (inflation), comparing December to December of the previous year, is expected to be at the level of 9.7% in 2024, 8.1% in 2025, and 6.9% in 2026, according to the main forecast of macro indicators that was approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of economic and social development of Ukraine for

Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators have been stronger than expected despite the ongoing war. This contributed to the upward revision of the IMF’s forecast for economic growth. The IMF revised their basic estimates of real GDP growth of Ukraine in 2023 to 4.5%. However, growth is expected to moderate slightly to 3-4% in 2024 as the war drags on. Additionally, significant risks remain due to high uncertainty caused by war, potential policy miscalculations, and delays or shortfalls in external financing. The IMF

GDP growth in 2023 will be 5-6%. Currently, it is primarily supported by consumer demand.In 2024, this demand will decrease, and the projected GDP growth will be 2-3%, according to Ihor Mazepa, the founder of the investment company Concorde Capital. “We could say that next year’s GDP will grow by 6% or even 10% if there were capital investments in new production facilities and other businesses. With such investments, labor efficiency increases. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Other drivers,

International rating agency, Fitch Ratings, has confirmed Ukraine’s long-term issuer default rating (EDR) in foreign currency at the CC level. Fitch expects the war to continue through 2024. At the same time, no politically justified concessions exist that could lead to a negotiated end to the war, which creates the potential for a very protracted conflict. “In the longer term, we expect some form of settlement, but consider a frozen conflict more likely than a durable peace agreement, at least

Based on 2023’s results, the ICU investment company predicts GDP growth between 5.8% and 5% in the coming year. It is also assumed that at the end of 2023 inflation will be 6.2%. Inflation is expected to remain at no more than 7% until at least the summer of next year and then accelerate somewhat. The forecast for the end of the year is 10.1%. Ukraine is predicted to receive at least $28B-$30B in foreign aid. The hryvnia will devalue

The rate of recovery of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 exceeded initial forecasts, and the locomotive of positive change was the ability of Ukrainian businesses to adapt to the challenging conditions of a full-scale war, the NBU explained. In particular, enterprises quickly and efficiently were able to adjust their production and logistics. In addition, weather conditions have led to high yields. Although the grain corridor shutdown limits exports, the expansion of alternative routes, mainly through the Danube ports, will support

As of October 31, Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to ₴4.96T. According to November’s results, the national debt will probably exceed the ₴5T mark, having increased by ₴2.3T (+46.1% or $43B in foreign currency) since the beginning of the war. This will amount to approximately 90% of GDP, said the chairman of the parliamentary finance committee, Danylo Hetmantsev. He specified that in October, the domestic debt increased by 2.1%, or ₴32.2B, while the external debt grew by 1.2%, or

The Ukrainian economy continues to demonstrate positive dynamics despite adverse external factors. According to preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth in October 2023 compared to October last year is about 10.5%. For January-October, the economy’s growth is estimated at 5.5% compared to the corresponding period last year. Positive factors that contributed to the economy’s growth include high yields in agriculture and favorable weather, which ensured high harvesting rates. The stable situation in the energy sector and the

The Ukrainian economy will grow by about 6% in 2023, and in the future, economic growth will not exceed 3% per year, predicts the CEO of investment company Concorde Capital, Ihor Mazepa. “We were not returned to the 1990s only because Western partners helped us economically and militarily. But we also did not take off due to a lack of reform and foreign investment, because a working mechanism for insurance of military risks has not yet been created,” said the

In September, this indicator was at 11.1%. The reason for the slowdown was the lower contribution from agriculture due to the higher statistical base in October last year, reported the Institute for Economic Research (IER). By comparison, real GDP in October 2023 was 28% lower than in October 2021. At the same time, real gross value added (GVA) in industry, by contrast, grew faster due to a lower base in October 2022, when Russia began to crack down on Ukraine’s

At the same time, the forecast for 2024 was reduced from 4% to 3.7%; in 2025 GDP growth is expected to be 6.1%. “Despite serious problems caused by Russia’s aggressive war, Ukraine’s economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2023 due to exceptional harvests, government incentives backed by unwavering support from international partners, and the authorities’ commitment to ensuring macro-financial stability,” the report says. However, by the end of the projected horizon, real GDP will remain approximately 20% below the pre-war level.

In the IMF’s notification regarding the arrangements for the second review of the program as part of the expanded financing of the EFF, it is noted that the Ukrainian economy continues to demonstrate extraordinary resilience and further signs of stabilization. Recent economic developments point to a stronger-than-expected economic recovery in 2023 and a significant decline in inflation amid solid reserves and a stable foreign exchange market. Therefore, the IMF improved its growth forecast for Ukraine’s 2023 GDP to 4.5%. Just

Ukraine’s economy continues to recover in 2023 amid infrastructure attacks, and its growth could reach 1-3% this year, 3.2% next year, and 6.5% in 2025. However, the duration and intensity of the war pose a significant risk to economic prospects, an IMF forecast says. “Medium-term prospects depend on the outcome of the war, the scale of reconstruction costs, the return of migrants, structural reforms, and prospects for joining the EU,” the forecast states. According to the Fund, the current recovery

According to the Inflation Report for October, an estimate of real GDP growth is due to a better-than-expected harvest of major crops. The National Bank improved its real GDP growth estimate by the end of the year to 4.9%. “The yield of early cereals not only exceeded the previous year but also the record year of 2021, while the sown area for most crops remained almost at the previous year’s level. As a result, the harvest estimate has been improved

The Cabinet of Ministers approved the draft of the 2024 State Budget for the second reading. The revenue has been increased by ₴22.2B compared to the first reading and is foreseen at ₴1.768 trillion. In addition, the expected 2023 macroeconomic indicators, which are the basis for calculating the 2024 forecast, were clarified. In particular, these include a faster recovery for real GDP in 2023 to +5% compared to +2.8% in the previous forecast, the hryvnia exchange rate at ₴38.6 per

Despite the war, the Ukrainian economy continues to recover. GDP growth in September 2023 compared to September last year was about 9.1%, the Ministry of Economy reported. At the same time, based on the results from nine months of the year, growth is estimated at 5.3% compared to the corresponding period last year. As Minister of Economy Yulia Svyridenko explained, in addition to the low statistical base of comparison, the positive results are the result of businesses quickly adapting to

The reason for this reevaluation is the longer duration of the hot war with Russia than previously expected, explained the founder and CEO of the company, Tomas Fiala. Dragon Capital’s previous forecast predicted that security risks would decrease in the first half 2024. This does not mean that the war would be entirely over, but with decreased hostilities the company expected 8% GDP growth by the end of 2024. “Now we expect the war to last the whole of next

According to the current year’s results, Ukraine’s GDP will grow by more than 4%, even though the economy fell by 30% after the start of the war. In addition, inflation has already slowed to less than 9%, and international reserves are stable at about $40B. Also, there are prerequisites for restrained optimism, which is why the budget for 2024 includes a forecast of economic growth of 5%, said the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal during the Sixth German-Ukrainian Economic

The NYT writes that it will take many years for Ukraine’s economy to return to pre-war levels, but after nearly 20 months of war, there is a sense of relative stability. Ukraine’s economy is adjusting to the war, and people have moved from a mode of austerity to a situation where they feel more relaxed and have begun spending more. It is noted that consumer consumption in Ukraine will grow by 5% this year. The higher-than-expected spending prompted financial institutions

Ukraine’s economy is showing stability during the current year, and GDP growth is forecast to be 4.7%, said Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko. “Inflation is falling faster than expected: 7.1% in September 2023 from 26.6% in 2022. The domestic borrowing has exceeded forecasts and reached more than $11B since the beginning of the year,” he added. In addition, Marchenko said that the 2024 budget will allocate maximum resources for the security and defense sector and the development of the domestic defense