Advanced search

In March, the growth of Ukraine’s real GDP compared to the same period last year was 4.9%, compared to 5% in February and 5.2% in January, according to the monthly economic monitoring by the Institute of Economic Research (IED). Among the factors restraining GDP growth, analysts cited restrictions in the supply of electricity to enterprises resulting from Russian shelling. Therefore, GDP growth is also expected to slow in April due to problems with access to electricity stemming from massive losses

Next year, Ukraine’s GDP growth will be 6.5%, according to the World Economic Outlook report. According to the IMF forecast, consumer inflation in Ukraine will decrease from 12.9% in 2023 to 6.4% in the current year and 7.6% in 2025. During a working visit to Washington, the Minister of Finance of Ukraine, Serhiy Marchenko, held a series of meetings with IMF management and the European Commission at the spring meetings between the IMF and the World Bank, where he discussed

The European Commission adopted the Ukrainian Facility, which is the basis for implementing the €50B Ukrainian fund in the EU budget for 2024-2027. Thus, Ukraine will receive regular payments that are critically important for budgetary support. The EC notes that payments will be made subject to Ukraine’s implementation of the agreed-upon reforms and investment actions. According to the EC, the Ukrainian plan effectively responds to the Ukrainian Fund’s needs and defines those key reforms and investments that can accelerate sustainable

As KSE-Agrocenter analysts noted, over the past two decades Ukraine has gradually become the world’s main supplier of agricultural products. Before the full-scale invasion, agriculture produced 10% of Ukraine’s GDP, accounted for 41% of total exports, and employed 14% of the workforce. By February 2022, Ukraine supplied about 50% and almost two-thirds of the world’s sunflower oil and meal exports, respectively. Ukraine’s main export destinations were China – 48%; EU – 25%; and Turkey – 7%. Ukraine was the third

The World Bank offered its assessment in its regional Economic Review, as concerns about the timing and volume of future aid payments to Ukraine are growing. The World Bank predicts that Ukraine’s GDP growth will slow to 3.2% in 2024, reflecting lower harvests and persistent labor shortages. The bank notes that Ukraine’s budget for 2024 includes $37.3B in external financing, the timely receipt of which will be crucial for authorities to maintain macroeconomic stability and finance critical expenditures. Therefore, according

As reported by the NBU, public sector consumption increased by 9% over the year, and its share in GDP in 2023 reached almost 42% compared to about 18% in 2021. Private consumption grew by 6.1% thanks to the recovery of real income growth, including wages in the economy’s private sector. Investment activity increased by 52.9%. The rapid growth in investment was primarily caused by significant budget expenditures, although the private sector also showed signs of revitalized investent activity spurred by

Ukraine and the US signed an agreement to postpone public debt payments with a group of Ukraine’s creditors from the G7 countries and the Paris Club. At the same time, the debt sustainability analysis (DSA) of Ukraine carried out by the IMF provides for a partial write-off of the debt, so it is likely that such a write-off will be one of the points of Ukraine’s proposal to restructure its Eurobonds, which is expected soon. “The IMF sees our national

According to the IMF, the expectation for nominal GDP in 2024 has increased to ₴7.75T from the ₴7.64T predicted in December last year’ However, 2025’s forecast remains almost unchanged at ₴8.86T. At the same time, this year the economy’s growth rate will decrease by 3-4% compared to 5% last year. The IMF improved its inflation forecast for this year to 8.5% from 9.5% and real wage growth to 9.8% from 8.5%. However, the unemployment estimate worsened to 14.5% from 13.9%.

According to the IMF, in a negative scenario, the war will end by the end of 2025 and not at the end of 2024 as in the base scenario. At the same time, “the shock will begin in the second quarter of 2024” due to the intensification of the war. “This would lead to a sharp decline in real GDP of 4% in 2024 (compared to 3-4% growth in the baseline scenario) and zero growth in 2025,” the document says.

Ukraine’s gross foreign debt at the end of 2023 amounted to $161.5B. That is, it increased by almost 25% (+$30.6B). This debt includes the external debt from the government, the central bank, commercial banks, and enterprises, said the head of the Committee on Finance, Danylo Hetmantsev. According to him, the main factor in the debt growth is the increase in the government’s external debt by 47.1% (+$30.8B), while the external debt of the NBU and banks decreased. Private sector external

Economic growth in Ukraine will continue in 2024 because of the expansion of domestic demand and the further recovery of sea exports, but it will decrease to 3.9% from about 5.5% last year, according to S&P Global Ratings. “In the absence of a significant escalation of the war, we forecast that Ukraine’s economy will grow by approximately 4-5% on average in the medium term, but recovery to pre-war levels is unlikely,” the agency emphasizes. Also, according to S&P estimates, average

Ukraine’s GDP did not fall as much in 2014 as it did in 2022, when it suffered a record-setting decline. In 2014-2015, GDP fell by 15.8%, and in 2022 – by almost 30%. However, the trajectory of recovery during the different stages of the Russian invasion is also different: in 2014, GDP fell for two years in a row, but after a year of full-scale war, it showed a recovery of 5.7%. However, Ukrainians felt their well-being deteriorated more in

The growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2024 will slow to approximately 4% from almost 6% in 2023, with an increase in inflation to 8% from 5.1% last year. At the end of the year, the exchange rate will be ₴39 for $1, said Tomas Fiala, the head of investment company Dragon Capital. Among the positive factors, the investment banker noted the establishment of exports through ports on the Black Sea. Dragon Capital’s forecast suggests that the security situation will not

Russia’s war against Ukraine has led to gigantic economic losses not only in Ukraine, but also in third countries. In Ukraine alone, GDP losses will amount to about $120B by 2026, according to a study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel). Ukraine will also lose means of production, such as equipment, machinery, and factories, worth almost $1T. At the same time, losses incurred by third countries will reach $250B. Of this amount, $70B will fall to

January’s GDP growth compared to December 2023 occurred due to investment demand generated by the budget, and the availability of foreign markets for domestic manufacturers due to the expansion of logistics capabilities. Also contributing were the revitalization of the Ukrainian maritime corridor’s operation and a partial lifting of the the blockade on the border with Poland. According to the Ministry of Economy, the main economic sectors demonstrated positive dynamics in January. The transport industry was supported by increased domestic rail

Sustainable economic growth at a high rate is possible only through a steady increase in productivity. European integration can become a driving force for growth, even before Ukraine’s official accession to the EU, as noted in the January Inflation Report from the National Bank of Ukraine. The NBU considered two scenarios for Ukraine’s development – moderate and favorable, which differ primarily in the completeness of reforms and the speed of European integration. Under a moderate scenario with partial reforms, Ukraine’s

As of December 31, 2023, the state’s and state-guaranteed debt amounted to ₴5.519T, or $145.32B, reported the Ministry of Finance. The ratio of national debt to GDP was 85%. State and state-guaranteed foreign debt amounted to ₴3.863T or $101.7B. At the end of the year, state debt increased in hryvnia by ₴396.81B and in dollar terms by $4.49B. As specified by the Chairman of the Finance Committee, Danylo Hetmantsev, the national debt has doubled since the beginning of the war.

Preliminary operational estimates indicate that Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 5% in 2023 after falling by 28.8% in 2022. According to the Ministry of Economy, the service sector’s most positive contribution to GDP was made by administration and defense, the financing of which is a priority during the war. The manufacturing sector, which has suffered significant losses and destruction, also contributed positively to GDP, but less so than the service sector. During the year, the highest growth rates were observed

The World Bank, in its updated review of the global economy, improved its estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023 to 4.8% and predicted a slowdown in recovery to 3.2% in 2024. In 2025, growth, according to the forecast, will be 6.5%. “Active hostilities are expected to continue through 2024, while base effects and one-off factors, including crop yields, should ease. A partial resolution of uncertainty in 2025 will support a recovery in exports and a gradual increase in reconstruction

The full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation has caused a 30% loss of Ukraine’s GDP. Also, the forced exodus of Ukrainians in 2022 caused an increase in inflation, said the head of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshnyi. “Ukraine’s critical dependence on international financial aid remains, and the importance of this source should not be underestimated. It is fundamentally important for us. After all, due to a full-scale invasion the country lost a third of its GDP, 20% of its territory,