Ukraine’s economy is recovering faster than forecast, but how will it do in the next two years?

The rate of recovery of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 exceeded initial forecasts, and the locomotive of positive change was the ability of Ukrainian businesses to adapt to the challenging conditions of a full-scale war, the NBU explained.

In particular, enterprises quickly and efficiently were able to adjust their production and logistics. In addition, weather conditions have led to high yields. Although the grain corridor shutdown limits exports, the expansion of alternative routes, mainly through the Danube ports, will support them.

In addition, macro-financial stability is preserved in Ukraine. Annual inflation has dropped to 5.3%, and a stable currency market and banking system create the necessary foundation for further economic recovery.

The NBU also stated that spending from the state budget on the army, social support, and reconstruction projects contributes to the revival of the economy.

According to NBU forecasts, real GDP is expected to grow by another 3.6% in 2024, and in 2025, if security risks are reduced, the expected GDP growth may accelerate to 6%.