The key policy rate in Ukraine may drop to 11-12% by the end of the year. Some members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank have not ruled out a lowering of the key policy rate to 11%–12% this year. This rate will be consistent with expected moderate inflat... #CurrencyLiberalization #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
The NBU predicts the stabilization of Ukraine’s FX market. The National Bank has reported that the upcoming arrival of international financial assistance should contribute to maintaining the stability of Ukraine’s foreign exchange market. As noted in th... #CurrencyMarket #financialaidforUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineFacility
Over the year, Ukraine’s gross foreign debt increased by almost 25%. How does this threaten the financial system? Ukraine’s gross foreign debt at the end of 2023 amounted to $161.5B. That is, it increased by almost 25% (+$30.6B). This debt includes the external debt from the government, the central bank, commerci... #DanyloHetmantsev #GDPinUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
In January, the volume of mortgage loans issued increased by 100% to ₴1.1B. In January, Ukrainian banks issued 676 mortgage loans for a total amount of ₴1.1B, the National Bank reported. The volume of consumer mortgage loans granted decreased by 33% compared to December, whil... #eOselya #HousingProgram #MortgageProgram #MortgagesUkraine #nbu
The key rate in Ukraine has again decreased to 14.5%, and the National Bank predicts further weakening. The National Bank’s board has decided to reduce the discount rate by 0.5 percentage point to 14.5% beginning March 15. In addition, the NBU reported that the rates on three-month deposit certificates ... #AndriiPyshnyi #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
What worries foreign investors in Ukraine the most? By order of the NBU, foreign investors cannot withdraw their dividends from Ukraine, which is the biggest problem with the inflow of investment, said the head of the EBA, Anna Derevyanko. “If yo... #AnnaDerevyanko #EBA #ForeignInvestor #InvestmentsinUkraine #nbu
In January, Ukraine increased its exports by 12% and reduced imports of goods. The export of goods in January increased by 12.3% compared to the corresponding period last year, while imports decreased by 1.1%, the National Bank reports. Ukraine supplied $3.3B worth of goods to f... #nbu #UkraineForeignTrade #UkraineImport #UkraineTrade #ВідвантаженнятоварівУкраїна
Business activity expectations have improved, and companies are looking for new employees. According to the NBU, the index of business activity expectations rose to 47.5 from 41 in January. Trade enterprises are the only ones among the surveyed sectors to assess their business activity posi... #BusinessExpectation #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineEconomy #UkrainianEnterprises
Bankers are predicting an increase in the yield of hryvnia deposits in Ukraine. In March, the rates on stock hryvnia deposits, depending on the term of placement of funds, may reach 17% per annum, predicts the top manager of Globus Bank, Dmytro Zamotaev. He specified that until t... #financeUkraine #GlobusBank #HryvniaDeposits #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkrainianBanks
Analysts predict how Ukraine’s accession to the EU would affect the growth of the Ukrainian economy. According to the NBU, the Ukrainian economy will increase by 7%, and the GDP per person will be $15,500 within a decade after the country’s accession to the EU with the rapid implementation of a... #AssociationwithEU #EuropeanIntegration #nbu #UkraineDevelopment #UkraineEconomy #UkraineEU
The currency deficit in Ukraine has increased by 100%. The hryvnia fell to record-low levels but later stabilized. Last week, the National Bank increased the sale of dollars from reserves in connection with the growing currency deficit. The dollar rate in... #CurrencyMarket #CurrencySale #financeUkraine #hryvniaexchangerate #nbu
Ukraine has come close to an agreement with the IMF on a new $900M tranche. Bloomberg reports that Ukraine has reached a deal with the IMF, though the Fund’s executive board still needs to ratify it. The agreement is the result of the ongoing discussions over the past t... #financialaidforUkraine #imf #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #UScongress
Ukrainian businesses increased the volume of soft loans by 34% over the year. The total volume of loans granted under the Affordable Loans 5-7-9% program increased by 2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and by 34% for the entire year, according to the Banking Sector Review for Feb... #5-7-9loanprogram #AffordableLoans #CreditPortfolio #financeUkraine #LoansUkraine #nbu
Last year, banks in Ukraine earned 100% more than before the beginning of the war and almost completely paid off their refinancing debts. In 2023, Ukrainian banks produced almost ₴160B in pre-tax profit, 100% more than before the start of the full-scale invasion. Banks will have to pay a tax of half their total profit – more than ... #financeUkraine #nbu #TaxesUkraine #UkraineBanksProfits #UkrainianBanks
During the war, the exodus of foreign exchange from Ukraine increased by 100%. The NBU plans to gradually abolish currency restrictions, but at the same time, asks businesses to return foreign exchange revenues on time and in full and avoid fictitious import schemes, said NBU Ch... #AndriiPyshnyi #CurrencyMarket #CurrencyRestrictions #financeUkraine #nbu
During the second year of the war, banks increased their profits by 300%. In 2023, solvent Ukrainian banks earned ₴86.5B in net profit. “This is almost four times higher than the figure for 2022 and 12% higher than the results of 2021, before the full-scale invasion,&... #nbu #TaxesUkraine #UkraineBanksProfits #UkrainianBanks
Ukrainians have begun withdrawing money from banks, and the volume of deposits decreased for the first time in a year and a half. Consumer deposits in Ukrainian banks decreased by 2.1% to ₴2.35T in January of this year. A decline was recorded for the first time since August 2022. According to the NBU, household deposits decrease... #DanyloHetmantsev #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #nbu #UkraineDeposits
At the request of the IMF, Ukraine develops a war risk insurance system. The National Bank of Ukraine reported that the Financial Stability Board approved a conceptual memorandum for creating a fully functional war risk insurance system in Ukraine. This is stipulated by th... #imf #InsuranceUkraine #MilitaryRiskInsurance #nbu
Bank loans for Ukrainians are becoming more expensive, but the profitability of deposits is decreasing. According to the NBU, the national currency’s average interest rates on new consumer loans in January 2024 amounted to 34.6% per annum. The hryvnia’s nominated loan rates increased by 0.9 ... #BankDepositsinUkraine #BankLoans #CreditPortfolio #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #nbu
Ukraine has increased its budget revenues, but the deficit reaches 34% of all revenues. From January 1 to February 8, budget revenues increased by 26.9% compared to last year, the NBU reported. Without international financial aid, they increased by 60% due to a 70% increase in tax revenu... #BudgetDeficit #financeUkraine #nbu #TaxesUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineBudgetRevenue #UkraineEconomy
Last year, the amount of mortgage loans issued in Ukraine increased by 400%. In 2023, Ukrainian banks issued 6,114 mortgage loans for a total of ₴9.1B. According to a National Bank survey, the volume of consumer mortgage loans increased almost fivefold in 2023 compared to the ... #eOselya #LoansUkraine #MortgagesUkraine #nbu #UkrainianBanks
Here are the reasons for the slowdown of inflation in Ukraine and new risks for an opposite trend. Several factors influenced the slowdown in inflation in January of this year. For example, aggregate demand has decreased significantly – by 25% compared to before the full-scale invasion, said ... #BohdanDanylyshyn #CurrencyMarket #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomy
The NBU has developed a concept for a military-risk insurance mechanism. It has already been agreed upon within the Ministry of Economy and Finance, reported a Deputy Head of the NBU, Kateryna Rozhkova. According to her, this concept provides for mandatory insurance of mil... #InsuranceUkraine #KaterynaRozhkova #MilitaryRiskInsurance #nbu
Over the past year, the share of NPL loans in the banking system decreased to 37.4%. As noted by the NBU, this is 0.8 percentage points below the January 1, 2023, indicator. The volume of NPL decreased by ₴9.7B for the year to ₴422.4B. The regulator explained that the key factor in re... #financeUkraine #LoanPortfolio #nbu #NPL #NPLukraine #UkraineBankingSystem
The NBU is preparing for the second stage of currency policy liberalization. The head of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshnyi, said at a meeting with businesses: “The NBU is determined to continue currency liberalization despite all the challenges posed by the war. We will ... #AndriiPyshnyi #CurrencyLiberalization #financeUkraine #nbu #Ukrsibbank #YuriGeletiy
The NBU predicts a further decrease in the key policy rate. Most of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank predict a reduction of the discount rate to 14% by the end of the year. They believe that the NBU can return to lowering the d... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineMonetaryPolicy
The NBU explains why the hryvnia strengthened at the beginning of the year. In January 2024, the situation on Ukraine’s foreign exchange market gradually improved, recovering amidst the fading effects of significant budget expenditures at the end of the year, explained NBU De... #AndriiPyshnyi #financeUkraine #Hryvnia #hryvniaexchangerate #nbu #UkraineEconomy #YuriGeletiy
The banking sector expects loan portfolios to grow during the year. According to the results of a quarterly NBU survey on lending conditions, improvement in the main indicators continues to be observed – most respondents expect an increase in lending to enterpri... #financeUkraine #LoanPortfolio #LoansUkraine #MortgagesUkraine #nbu
Analysts calculate the damage caused by the border closure and give their forecast for the coming months. The blockade of Ukraine’s western borders by protesters since the fall of 2023 has led to decreased exports and imports. At the same time, the flow of goods was quickly directed in other ways. T... #BorderBlockade #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineEconomyLosses #UkrainePolandCheckpoints #ВідвантаженнятоварівУкраїна
The NBU presents a scenario for Ukraine’s rapid economic growth during the process of joining the EU. Sustainable economic growth at a high rate is possible only through a steady increase in productivity. European integration can become a driving force for growth, even before Ukraine’s official access... #EuropeanIntegration #GDPinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineRecovery
The index of business activity expectations in Ukraine has worsened. The index of business activity expectations, which the NBU calculates every month, decreased to 41.0 in January from 45.7 in December 2023. Given the growing pressure from production costs and logisti... #BusinessActivityExpectations #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineEconomy #бізнесвУкраїні
Ukraine is preparing for the second stage of currency liberalization. The head of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshnyi, specified that he foresees an easing of trade financing and the possibility of paying interest on the obligations of Ukrainian issuers. At the same time,... #AndriiPyshnyi #CurrencyLiberalization #financeUkraine #ICC #nbu #VolodymyrShchelkunov
The NBU decides to keep its key policy rate at 15%. Thus, the National Bank has suspended the cycle of lowering the discount rate, which began in July last year, NBU Chairman Andriy Pyshnyi said. As he noted, the decision is consistent with the need to... #AndriiPyshnyi #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu
The Ministry of Economy has assessed 2023’s most important economic indicators. Preliminary operational estimates indicate that Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 5% in 2023 after falling by 28.8% in 2022. According to the Ministry of Economy, the service sector’s most positi... #GDPinUkraine #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Ukrainian businesses go into standby mode, taking fewer loans and increasing reserves to record levels. According to the NBU, in 2023 the volume of loans granted to legal entities decreased by 2% to ₴757.5B. If compared with the pre-war period, the reduction is 10 times as large. In 2022, corporate borr... #LoansforBusiness #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #бізнесвУкраїні
The Ministry of Finance received ₴552B from the sale of bonds; Ukrainians have doubled their investments in OVDP. Since the beginning of martial law, it has been possible to attract more than ₴1.2T to the state budget by issuing OVDP bonds. The government raised ₴552.6B ($14.5B) in 2023. The Ministry of Finance n... #Bondssale #financeUkraine #nbu #OVDPselling #UkraineBond
Ukraine’s imports exceed exports by 76%. In 2023, Ukraine imported goods worth $63.5B and exported $36B, according to the State Customs Service. Ukraine imported the most goods from China, $10.4B, Poland $6.6B, and Germany $4.9B. Ukraine exp... #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineForeignTrade #UkraineTrade #Ukrainetradedeficit
The National Bank predicts that loans will become cheaper. After the discount rate’s reduction to 15% in December, loans in Ukraine are likely to become cheaper, according to Deputy Chairman of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk. As he explained, loan rates depend ma... #financeUkraine #LoansUkraine #nbu #SerhiiNikolaychuk #UkraineDeposits
The NBU is considering additional taxation of non-critical imports. In response to the risk of reduced international support, through which a high foreign trade deficit is being financed during wartime conditions, it is worth considering the possibility of limiting no... #nbu #SerhiiNikolaychuk #UkraineBudget #UkraineImport #UkraineTrade #Ukrainetradedeficit
In Ukraine, the yield on deposits has increased, but loans have become more expensive. In December 2023, the average bank interest rate on new consumer hryvnia deposits amounted to 11.7% per annum. A year ago, the figure was 8.2%, NBU data shows. Rates on new consumer deposits in forei... #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #LoansUkraine #nbu
Privatization of state banks can start even before the end of the war. The privatization of state-controlled banks, whose number has increased to five and with a market shareof 56%, can be started even before the end of the war, according to the deputy head of the NBU, K... #KaterynaRozhkova #nbu #oschadbank #PrivatizationUkraine #UkraineBanksPrivatization #Ukrgasbank
ICU analysts provide a forecast for OVDP rates for the next six months. In the coming months, there will be no noticeable reduction in the rates for OVDP because this trend has already played out in the second half of 2023 in response to the gradual decrease in the NBU di... #BondsUkraine #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #OVDPselling
The NBU has summarized the war’s consequences for the Ukrainian economy. The full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation has caused a 30% loss of Ukraine’s GDP. Also, the forced exodus of Ukrainians in 2022 caused an increase in inflation, said the head of the Nati... #AndriiPyshnyi #GDPinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomy #WarinUkraine
The number of new vacancies in Ukraine has reached pre-war levels. Searches by both employers and job seekers in Ukraine eased in December 2023. This is a typical situation for the end of the year, according to the January Macroeconomic and Monetary Review of the NBU... #ITvacancies #JobInUkraine #nbu #UkraineLaborMarket #VacanciesUkraine
Ukrainian wages have been growing for three quarters in a row, and inflation has fallen below the NBU’s target for the first time in three years. The revival of the economy and the slowdown of inflation have both contributed to the recovery of the growth in real wages since the second quarter of 2023. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, ... #InflationinUkraine #nbu #SalaryUkraine #UkraineEconomy
Due to the war, the share of non-performing business loans increased to 44%. According to the NBU, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the share of NPL in the banking sector had risen to 44% at the beginning of October 2023, and their volume reached ₴359B. “Two rea... #financeUkraine #LoansUkraine #nbu #NPL #NPLukraine
What will the exchange rate be at the beginning of the year? At the start of 2024, the average exchange rate of the dollar may be in the range of ₴37.90-₴38.40, and the average exchange rate of the euro ₴42.10-₴42.60, analysts from the Center of Exchange Techno... #financeUkraine #hryvniaexchangerate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Businesses in Ukraine have downgraded their expectations for business activity. In December 2023, for the third month in a row, Ukrainian businesses have provided their restrained estimates of their current activity’s results. The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) was 4... #BusinessExpectation #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineBusinessExpectation #UkraineEconomy #бізнесвУкраїні
The NBU points to achievements in the financial market during the war. The National Bank has maintained exchange rate stability and switched to managed exchange rate flexibility, which will strengthen the economy and financial system’s adaptability and minimize the... #AndriiPyshnyi #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024
The NBU is working on a new mechanism to insure military risk. The National Bank, together with the World Bank and the EBRD, is preparing a new mechanism to regulate military risk, which is planned to be presented no later than in the first quarter of 2024, the h... #AndriiPyshnyi #InsuranceUkraine #MilitaryRiskInsurance #nbu
