The NBU has assessed the consequences of the continuing electricity shortage: The demand for workers is falling, the number of emigrants is increasing, and economic activity is weakening. In Ukraine, economic activity weakened in June, and entrepreneurs worsened their business expectations, primarily due to prolonged power outages and a lack of workers in the labor market, according to... #ElectricityDeficitUkraine #EmployeeDeficit #nbu #UkraineEconomicActivity #UkraineEconomy
Due to debt repayment, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 2.9% to $37.9B. As noted by the National Bank, June’s dynamics were caused by the NBU’s currency interventions to cover the market’s currency deficit and smooth out exchange rate fluctuations and th... #CurrencyMarket #internationalReserves #nbu #ukrainedebt #UkraineDebtRepayment #UkraineFacility #worldbank
The government predicts an acceleration of inflation in the coming months. As noted by the Ministry of Economy, in January through May the trend of slowing inflation continued; consumer inflation was the lowest in recent years – 2% since the beginning of the year. Annual inf... #ConsumerInflation #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
The NBU’s currency restrictions threaten defaults in the corporate sector and an increase in the cost of loans to the state. Oleksandr Vodoviz, the top manager of the Metinvest group, noted: “The largest easing package was introduced in May 2024: businesses were allowed to take foreign currency abroad to pay loans and... #CurrencyRestrictions #Metinvest #nbu #OleksandrVodoviz #UkraineDebtRepayment #ukrainianbusiness
Business expectations in Ukraine worsened for the second month in a row. In June, businesses again negatively evaluated the results of their activity. According to the NBU, index of expectations of business activity decreased to 43.6 from 48 in May. Rising costs due to ele... #BusinessActivityExpectations #businessinukraine #nbu #UkraineEconomicActivity #UkraineEconomy
At the IMF’s request, Ukraine will work on creating a postal bank. Ukraine’s memorandum with the IMF says that the Ukrainian authorities plan to create a specialized bank to ensure access to financial services for residents in remote settlements, de-occupied te... #financeUkraine #financialservices #IhorSmilyansky #imf #nbu #PostalBank #Ukrposhta
The largest Ukrainian state bank predicts interest rate decreases on loans and deposits. As PrivatBank noted, these dynamics will be determined by the reduction of the NBU’s discount rate. A member of the NBU board, Yevhen Zaigraev, noted that the situation with client funds reflect... #Depositrates #financeUkraine #InterestRate #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #PrivatBank
NBU: Life insurance is a potential source of long-term funds for Ukraine’s economy. In Ukraine, there is a significant potential for the development of life insurance, which can become a source of long-term funds for the economy, said the deputy head of the NBU, Kateryna Rozhkova. Th... #InsuranceUkraine #KaterynaRozhkova #LifeInsurance #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine has a significant imbalance between exports and imports, how does this affect the dollar exchange rate? Oleh Hetman, the Economic Expert Platform’s coordinator of expert groups, notes that because the exchange rate is not free-floating but in in a state of controlled flexibility, the national bank... #currencyexchange #nbu #OlehHetman #UkraineEconomy #UkraineExport #UkraineImport #Ukrainetradedeficit
Ukraine signed a €27B loan agreement with the EU under the Ukraine Facility program. Ukraine and the European Commission have signed a credit agreement within the Ukraine Facility program, which will provide €27B in loans from 2024-2027 to finance the state budget deficit. The Nationa... #EuropeanCommission #financialaidforUkraine #LoanForUkraine #nbu #SupportUkraine #UkraineFacility
Ukrainian bankers predict a further key policy rate decrease to 12%. Seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank have reported the potential to cut the key rate to 12-12.5% by the end of the year, given that the risks to the inflation forecast... #financeUkraine #InterestRate #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineBankingSystem #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine’s banking regulator names the key risks to financial stability in the banking market. Banks in Ukraine have maintained financial stability and their clients’ trust while increasing lending and their participation in financing the budget deficit, the NBU reported. The regulator states t... #ConsumerLending #financeUkraine #LoansforBusiness #nbu #UkraineBankingSystem #UkraineEconomy
The NBU has characterized the Ukrainian real estate market’s main trends and warn of a possible shortage of new housing. Prices for residential real estate are rising in Ukraine, although demand for it is still low, the National Bank reported. The number of completed deals is much smaller than before the full-scale war.... #HousingsalesUkraine #nbu #PrimaryHousing #RealEstateUkraine #SecondaryMarket
The National Bank has summarized the economic results for April-May. Here are the leading indicators: Inflation in April remained the same as in March – 3.2% annually. This was facilitated by a drop in prices for raw food products and persistent inflationary expe... #BusinessExpectation #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineEconomy #UkraineForeignTrade
After two consecutive months of positive sentiment, in May Ukrainian businesses worsened their performance estimates. According to the National Bank, the index of expectations for business activity fell to 48 from 52.3 points in April. The mood of Ukrainian enterprises was affected by the increased intensity of hosti... #BusinessExpectation #businessinukraine #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineEconomy #UkraineLaborMarket
These are the main trends in Ukraine’s bank deposits. According to financiers, the decreasing yields on hryvnia deposits will continue until the end of May. However, despite this, hryvnia deposits remain attractive to citizens due to their passive income... #financeUkraine #ForeignCurrencyDeposits #HryvniaDeposits #nbu
The NBU has downgraded its growth forecast for the Ukrainian economy over losses in the energy sector. The National Bank worsened its 2024 growth forecast for Ukraine’s economy from 3.6% to 3% due to the severe consequences from Russia’s missile attacks on energy infrastructure. The central... #ebrd #energyukraine #GDPinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy #WarinUkraine
The NBU explains what the confiscation of Russian assets depends on and how much can be obtained from their profits in 10 years. The European Central Bank (ECB) cannot confiscate frozen Russian assets, said NBU head Andriy Pyshnyi. As he explained, confiscation requires a consolidated decision and a legal basis. “It is ab... #AndriiPyshnyi #ECB #G7 #nbu #RussianAssetsConfiscation #RussianAssetsProfits
Ukrainian businesses cite the risks of discontinuing currency liberalization measures. As stated by analysts, the continuation of currency liberalization is absolutely necessary. Expanding the established limits and conditions for paying dividends and interest on existing debts remains ... #CurrencyLiberalization #CurrencyRestrictions #Interpipe #InvestmentsinUkraine #nbu #ukrainianbusiness
Thanks to OVDP, the return on the Ukrainian banks’ assets increased to 11.6%. According to the National Bank, the return on assets increased by 0.2 percentage points on average over the last year, up to 11.6% in the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to revenues from OVDP ... #CreditPortfolio #nbu #PrivatBank #UkraineBanksProfits #UkraineBond #UkraineDeposits #UkrainianBanks
Renovation of the energy system: Ukraine will develop smart power grids, and banks will support projects to restore energy generation. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine approved the road map for developing smart networks to automate and implement digital solutions at all levels of the energy system. It is noted that the restoration o... #AndriiPyshnyi #energyukraine #nbu #SmartElectricalNetworks #SmartEnergy
Bank lending to businesses continues to grow in Ukraine. Banks have been increasing corporate lending for three quarters in a row, according to the Review of the Banking Sector for the first quarter. It is noted that the demand for business loans outside th... #AffordableLoansUkraine #eOselya #LendingInUkraine #LoanPortfolio #MortgageProgram #nbu #NPL
The deposit yield for businesses and individuals in Ukraine has fallen. According to the Banking Sector Survey for the first quarter, banks reduced deposit rates for both commercial and consumer loans. The national bank notes that since the beginning of the year, the disc... #BankDepositsinUkraine #DiscountRateUkraine #financeUkraine #nbu #UkraineDeposits #UkrainianBanks
Piraeus Bank Executive: Ukraine’s banking system has shown outstanding resiliency, and international businesses should take note. The Ukrainian Banking Day in London gathered 150 finance executives from all over the world to listen to their colleagues who work in Ukraine and share their views on the financial sector’s cur... #financeUkraine #IoannisKyriakopoulos #nbu #PiraeusBank #UkraineBankingSystem #YannisKyriakopoulos
In the first quarter of 2024, Ukrainian banks increased their net profit by 18% from last year. During the first three months of the year, solvent financial institutions showed a ₴40.5B ($1.05B) net profit. “The main factors in profitability growth in annual terms are an increase in intere... #BankDepositsinUkraine #LendingInUkraine #nbu #UkraineBanks #UkraineBanksProfits #UkraineBond
The NBU predicts that consumer price growth will accelerate moderately in the coming months, although in April, it was lower than the regulator predicted. “The deviation from the forecast was provided by the dynamics of little-forecasted factors of a temporary nature, first of all, a sh... #ConsumerPrices #InflationinUkraine #nbu #pricesinUkraine #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
What does the NBU think about the new easing of currency restrictions and the return of currency extortion? NBU Chairman Andriy Pyshnyi said: “Our decisions are fully in line with our declared strategy of easing currency restrictions, transitioning to greater exchange rate flexibility and returning to... #AndriiPyshnyi #CurrencyLiberalization #CurrencyMarket #CurrencyRestrictions #financeUkraine #nbu
Ukraine’s economic growth will slow to 3% this year, and the budget deficit will reach 20.7% of GDP. “The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that economic growth will slow to 3% in 2024 due to the loss of energy infrastructure and an expected electricity deficit of about 5%. In 2025-2026, GDP growth w... #BudgetDeficit #GDPinUkraine #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
The NBU has introduced its largest package of measures to ease FX restrictions. Most changes came into effect on May 4, but the ability to repatriate new dividends will begin on May 13, 2024. It is emphasized that these changes aim to improve the conditions for conducting busines... #AndriiPyshnyi #CurrencyLiberalization #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #nbu
The National Bank has indicated the presence of prerequisites for further reduction of the key policy rate. The NBU sees room for further discount rate reduction after its reduction to 13.5% on April 26, 2024. The condition for the next step is the preservation of favorable macro-financial trends. In partic... #DepositsinUkraineBanks #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #ukrainebonds
The construction business in Ukraine has the most optimistic expectations. According to a NBU survey, builders’ expectations are primarily related to the significant budget funding announced by the state for the restoration of infrastructure. Also, builders are counting on i... #BusinessExpectation #businessinukraine #ConstructionUkraine #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineEconomy
The first stage of currency liberalization announced by the National Bank will cost Ukraine $5.5B. However, the NBU says it will significantly expand business opportunities, improve the conditions for attracting investment and private capital participation in reconstruction, and, as a result, posit... #AndriiPyshnyi #CurrencyLiberalization #financeUkraine #internationalReserves #nbu
The devaluation of the national currency against the dollar will continue in 2024. According to analysis from the ICU: “Given the NBU’s desire for devaluation and increased exchange rate volatility, we have revised the year-end exchange rate forecast to ₴42.3 per $1 comp... #CurrencyLiberalization #financeUkraine #foreignexchangemarket #Hryvnia #hryvniadevaluation #nbu
The National Bank lowered the key policy rate to 13.5% and improved its inflation forecast. With the discount rate decrease, the rates on overnight deposit certificates and three-month deposit certificates are also reduced – to 13.5% and 16.5%, respectively. The National Bank of Ukrain... #CurrencyLiberalization #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineEconomy
The NBU is considering lifting restrictions on currency withdrawals to service old debts. The head of the NBU, Andriy Pyshnyi, said: “Currently, we see the presence of sufficient prerequisites for continuing the process of currency liberalization following the strategy approved as pa... #AndriiPyshnyi #CurrencyLiberalization #CurrencyRestrictions #financeUkraine #nbu
Ukrainian banks expect an increase in lending and an increase in portfolio quality. Banks expect an increase in consumer and commercial lending volume over the next 12 months, and for the first time since the end of 2021, they forecast an increase in loan portfolio quality, the NBU r... #ConsumerLending #CreditPortfolio #financeUkraine #Lending #MortgagesUkraine #nbu #UkrainianBanks
The EU is approaching a decision on the use of profits from frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine; the US has found a way to transfer up to €50B. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, Gabrielius Landsbergis, believes that the EC and the Council of the EU are close to deciding to allocate to Ukraine the profits obtained from Russian Fede... #AndriiPyshnyi #GabrieliusLandsbergis #nbu #ReparationsForUkraine #RussianAssetsArrested #RussianAssetsProfits
The mortgage lending market grew by 17% in February; the main driver is the state’s affordable housing program. In February, Ukrainian banks issued 783 mortgage loans for a total amount of ₴1.3B. In particular, the volume of mortgage loans granted to the population increased by 17.3% compared to the previous mo... #eOselya #MortgageProgram #MortgagesUkraine #nbu
Ukrainians have begun to borrow money more actively and increase their deposits, but experts predict a rate decrease. The head of the Finance Committee, Danylo Hetmantsev, commenting on NBU data, notes that lending increased slightly in March but generally stagnated. The balance of hryvnia loans granted to businesses... #BankDepositsinUkraine #CreditPortfolio #DanyloHetmantsev #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkrainianBanks
Due to slowing inflation, the interest rate on inflation-linked bonds will decrease to 5.4% per annum in May 2024. According to analyst Oleksiy Blinov, as the growth dynamics of the consumer price index slowed to 3.2% per annum in March, the interest rate for inflation-linked government bonds in May will be 5.4% p... #InflationinUkraine #InterestRate #nbu #OVDPselling #SecuritiesMarket #UkraineBond
Experts confirm the recovery of consumer lending in Ukraine. According to the NBU, as of March 1, 2024 the portfolio of bank loans to individuals amounted to ₴230.9B, 12.1% more than on the same date last year. For comparison, as of March 1, 2022, customer debt... #ConsumerLending #financeUkraine #FinancialBroker #LendingInUkraine #nbu #Rozetka
Ukraine increases its international reserves to a new record. Ukraine’s international reserves grew by 18% in March and amounted to $43.8B on April 1, the National Bank reported. The regulator explained that the increase is due to the volume of income from... #CurrencyMarket #imf #NationalBankReserves #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineFacility #worldbank
Ukraine lost up to $400M in imports due to the border blockade in February; exports are close to pre-war levels. According to the NBU, in February there was no increase in the import of goods, which is typical for this month, due to the resumption of the blockade of the western borders. Thus, import losses amoun... #BorderBlockade #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineExport #UkraineForeignTrade #UkraineImport
The National Bank explains why in 2023, real GDP grew by 5.3%. As reported by the NBU, public sector consumption increased by 9% over the year, and its share in GDP in 2023 reached almost 42% compared to about 18% in 2021. Private consumption grew by 6.1% thanks ... #GDPinUkraine #investments #nbu #UkraineEconomicActivity #UkraineEconomy
NBU: After five months of declining sentiment, Ukrainian businesses have improved their expectations. According to the NBU Business Activity Expectations Index, the increase in sea and rail transportation, the preservation of a stable situation on the foreign exchange market, low inflationary expectat... #BusinessActivityExpectations #businessinukraine #nbu #UkraineBusinessActivity #UkraineBusinessExpectation #UkraineEconomy
Currency restrictions effectively stabilize the Ukrainian economy, but they hold back investment. The director of the NBU’s monetary policy department, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, stated: “Currency restrictions are effective for stabilizing the economy, but they are burdensome for it and hold ba... #CurrencyLiberalization #CurrencyRestrictions #InvestmentsinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Following the discount rate decrease, Ukrainian bonds’ yield fell as well. At the first auction, after the NBU decided to lower the discount rate, the Ministry of Finance lowered rates for OVDP by 20-30 basis points. The secondary market also reacted by lowering rates for hr... #financeUkraine #imf #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #OVDPselling #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
The key policy rate in Ukraine may drop to 11-12% by the end of the year. Some members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank have not ruled out a lowering of the key policy rate to 11%–12% this year. This rate will be consistent with expected moderate inflat... #CurrencyLiberalization #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
The NBU predicts the stabilization of Ukraine’s FX market. The National Bank has reported that the upcoming arrival of international financial assistance should contribute to maintaining the stability of Ukraine’s foreign exchange market. As noted in th... #CurrencyMarket #financialaidforUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineFacility
Over the year, Ukraine’s gross foreign debt increased by almost 25%. How does this threaten the financial system? Ukraine’s gross foreign debt at the end of 2023 amounted to $161.5B. That is, it increased by almost 25% (+$30.6B). This debt includes the external debt from the government, the central bank, commerci... #DanyloHetmantsev #GDPinUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
