Ukraine has doubled its national debt, and here is what will happen next. During the 2.5 years of the full-scale war, Ukraine’s public debt has increased by 130% in hryvnia equivalent (+₴3.644B), and in foreign currency by 66% (+$62B). “Despite everything, the d... #DanyloHetmantsev #DebtRestructuring #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt
Fitch Ratings assesses Ukrainian Railway’s financial condition. International rating agency Fitch Ratings raised the long-term default ratings of the issuer Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ) and its $894.9M in Eurobonds from C to CC. Despite a high probability of default, anal... #CreditRatingUkraine #FitchRatings #UkrainianRailways
Ukraine will receive the second tranche of EU aid from the proceeds of Russian Federation assets by March 2025 , promises the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell. He also notes that the European Union has already allocated the first €1.4B tranche of revenue from frozen Russin assets through the European ... #AidforUkraine #RussianAssetsForUkraine #RussianFronzenAssets
The Ukrainian parliament proposes an alternative plan to cover the ₴500B defense deficit. The budget committee of the Verkhovna Rada proposed and provided support for its solution to raise funds for the Defense Forces: reducing debt expenditures, placing bonds, and exceeding the tax collec... #BudgetDeficit #UkraineBudgetDuringWar #UkraineBudgetNeeds
Ukraine is working to legalize cryptocurrency to fill its coffers. The legalization of cryptocurrency can become a practical alternative when looking for new sources of tax revenue, according to Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation Oleksandr Bornyakov. At the sa... #CryptoCurrencyUkranie #CryptoLegalization
In August, the Ukrainian budget received $8.4B in external support, and 65% of the funds do not have to be repaid. In August, the state budget’s general fund received about $8.4B in external financing. As noted by the Ministry of Finance, $5.5B comprised grants (65%), and $2.9B arrived through preferential f... #AidforUkraine #financialaidforUkraine #UkraineBudget
Why is successful debt restructuring so important for Ukraine? The debt restructuring agreement that was reached with creditors is a very important step that demonstrates the creditors understand Ukraine’s needs, said ex-Minister of Finance of Ukraine Natal... #DebtOfUkraine #DebtRestructuring #GDPwarrantsOfUkraine
Over 97% of Eurobond holders support Ukraine’s restructuring planthat will save the country $11.4B. The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine said that 97.38% of holders of $20.47B ($24.3B including interest) in Eurobonds support the restructuring agreement, exceeding the required two-thirds threshold. &#... #eurobonds #ukrainebonds #UKraineGDPwarrants
Ukraine has stopped servicing GDP warrants and some other external obligations. The Cabinet of Ministers adopted a resolution suspending the servicing of Ukraine’s obligations to several creditors under loans and Eurobonds and obligations under GDP warrants. In particular, ... #ukrainedebt #UKraineGDPwarrants #UkraineStopedServicingDebt
Ukraine is concerned about the delay in the provision of a $50B loan secured by Russian assets. As Bloomberg says, these funds should arrive in Kyiv by the end of the year, according to the June G7 “agreement”, which provides that the loan will be repaid using the profits from more t... #AidforUkraine #DelayedAidForUkraine #Zelenskyy
Ukraine has extended the early consent period deadline for the exchange of Eurobonds. Ukraine announced a four-day extension – until the evening of August 27 – of the deadline for early consent to the exchange of Eurobonds within the framework of their restructuring, which provides the... #eurobonds #ukrainebonds
What awaits bank depositors through the end of the year? Inflation is forecast to be within 5-6% from September to December. Considering current deposit rates, individual depositors can not only protect their funds from depreciation but also receive a 3-4% ... #BankDeposits #Lending #UkraineBankingSector
The IMF sees tax increases in Ukraine as an incentive for continued international support. Support from international partners, the restructuring of commercial debt, and an increase in taxes should be considered as a single package to eliminate Ukraine’s financing deficit. “Prog...
Ukrainian entrepreneurs can receive up to €20,000 from Germany to restart their business. Businesses, internally displaced persons, and Ukrainians who have returned home will be able to receive a portion of €20M in support from the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation of Germany (BMZ)...
Despite a reduction in gold and foreign currency reserves, the NBU has enough of each to respond to possible crises. As of August, the National Bank’s gold and currency reserves reach $37.2B. Since the beginning of the year, the reserves have fluctuated from $37B to $43.8B. Currently, the NBU’s reserves ... #UkraineEconomy #UkraineReserves
Analysts have updated the forecast for this year’s main Ukrainian macroeconomic indicators. Ukraine’s economy will grow by 4% in 2024, inflation will accelerate to 8%, and the exchange rate is expected to be ₴42.6 to $1, according to an updated macro forecast from the ICU financial gro... #EconomicOutlookForUkraine #UkraineEconomy
Last year, foreign business giants paid billions in taxes to the Russian Federation’s budget. In 2023, the ten largest international corporations and banks still remaining in Russia paid approximately $1.78B in income tax to the Russian Federation. Among them are Raiffeisen Bank, Chery Automob... #BusinessInRussia #ForeignBusinessInRussia
Businesses and housholds have been increasing the volume of loans in hryvnia for more than a year, and rates have decreased to 2019’s level. In the second quarter, the net hryvnia commercial credit portfolio increased by 20.5% year-on-year, according to the National Bank. Business lending accelerated in all groups of banks, especially in t... #Finance #LoansUkraine
The parliament comments on the lowering of Ukraine’s credit rating to RD. Early this week, the Fitch rating agency downgraded Ukraine’s long-term credit rating from level C to RD. The $750M 2026 Eurobonds, on which Ukraine failed to make the August 1 coupon payment, w... #CreditRatingUkraine #DanyloHetmantsev #DebtRestructuring #Eurobond #ukrainedebt #ukravtodor
A Ukrainian state bank records a 27% increase in card payment transactions: What are Ukrainians buying? In the first half of the year, Ukrainians paid with cards through the PrivatBank network for 1.6 billion purchases worth ₴451B. This is 27.3% more than in the first half of last year. At that time, th... #CardPayment #PrivatBank #PurchasesUkraine #Ukrainians'spending
Fitch Ratings lowers Ukraine’s credit rating to limited default. In particular, the issuer’s long-term foreign currency default rating was downgraded from C to RD (restricted default), Fitch Ratings said in a statement. This rating level means that the issuer... #Creditors #DebtRestructuring #DefaultUkraine #eurobonds #FitchRatings #ukrainedebt #ukravtodor
Over the first half of the year, banks increased their profits by 17%. In the first six months of the year, solvent banks earned ₴79B in net profit, 17% more than the ₴67.6B profit obtained in the same period last year. Only seven small banks out of 62 solvent financial ... #IncomeTaxationUkraine #nbu #OVDP #UkraineBanksProfits #UkrainianBanks
The EU grants Ukraine €4.2B under the Ukraine Facility, and the budget will receive almost the same amount by the end of the year. Ukraine received €4.2B for implementing nine indicators in the second quarter of 2024, which were provided by the Plan of Ukraine within the framework of the Ukraine Facility. The tranche consists of ... #GrantForUkraine #InternationalAid #ReformsinUkraine #SupportUkraine #UkraineFacility
The volume of foreign exchange earnings by exporters increased by 16%, but up to $8B still must be returned to Ukraine. According to the NBU, the amount of export earnings received in Ukraine for January-June 2024 exceeded the result for the same period in 2023 by 15.9%, or $3.3B, while the amount of unreturned foreign... #currencyexchange #CurrencyRestrictions #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineExport
Ukrainians are building up hryvnia savings in bank accounts. In July, the amount of funds in household hryvnia accounts temporarily decreased, but at the beginning of August, they recovered and continued to grow without affecting the banking system’s fina... #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #nbu #UkraineBankingSystem
Ukraine is increasing its national debt, but its value has decreased by 10.3% since the beginning of the year. As of June 30, the state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine amounted to ₴6.16T ($152.2B), including external debt – ₴4.45T ($109.9B), internal debt – ₴1.71T ($42.2B), the Ministry of Finance s... #Creditors #DebtRestructuring #InternationalAid #UkraineBudget #ukrainedebt
How have Ukrainian bank deposit portfolios and investment returns changed? According to the year’s first half results, as of June the financial institutions with the two largest deposit portfolios were Privatbank (₴490.83B) and Oschadbank (₴201.4B). Also among the lead... #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #InterestRate #nbu #oschadbank #PrivatBank #PUMB #UkrainianBanks #UniversalBank
The Ministry of Finance links the multibillion-dollar hole in the budget to delayed aid from the US and calls on the G7 to provide Ukraine with a $50B loan. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has called on Ukraine’s Western allies to accelerate the $50B loan to Ukraine, arguing that delays in arms deliveries have led to a growing budget deficit, forc... #Creditors #G7 #imf #LoanForUkraine #RussianAssetsProfits #SerhiyMarchenko #UkraineBudget #UkraineBudgetDeficit
US Treasury: Budgetary support for Ukraine depends on reforms. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated: “Our direct budget support for Ukraine continues to depend on reforms that will further strengthen the stability of Ukraine’s economy and improve... #InternationalAid #JanetYellen #ReformsinUkraine #SupportUkraine #USA
Ukraine has officially started restructuring its external debt. The Ministry of Finance announced on the London Stock Exchange the specifics for exchanging old bonds for new-issue bonds. Ukraine invites holders of each series of sovereign bonds and existing bonds,... #Creditors #Eurobond #LondonStockExchange #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt #UkraineRestructuringDebt
Ukrainian small and medium-sized businesses will receive €7B in international aid. Last week, the first meeting of the Small and Medium Business (SME) Sustainability Alliance, created in June during URC-2024 with the participation of Ukraine, 12 other countries and 17 development in... #InternationalAid #SupportBusiness #ukrainianbusiness #URC2024
The National Bank predicts a slowdown in inflation next year. The NBU will allow exchange rate fluctuations that will make it possible to maintain control over inflation expectations and achieve the 5% inflation target, said National Bank Chairman Andriy Pyshnyi... #AndriiPyshnyi #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
Banks have issued ₴4B in loans to restore Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, but medium-sized businesses refuse to construct generation capacity and are preparing for downtime. Since the beginning of June, banks have received 1,356 loan applications for energy infrastructure restoration projects totaling ₴40.1B. The NBU confirmed the approval of applications totaling ₴3.97B ... #AndriiPyshnyi #DTEK #EnergyDecentralization #EnergyRestore #LoansforBusiness #nbu #UkraineEnergy
Ukrainians’ interest in hryvnia assets is weakening. In June, for the first time in a long time, there was a reduction in the volume and share of hryvnia time deposits in the banking system despite maintaining positive rates in real terms. The Committee... #financeUkraine #HryvniaAssets #HryvniaDeposits #nbu #OVDP #UkraineBond
The Council of the EU approved almost €4.2B through the Ukraine Facility for Ukraine. The EU Council concluded that Ukraine had fulfilled the necessary conditions and implemented the required reforms that were established in the plan as prerequisites in order to receive the first regul... #EUCouncil #EuropeanIntegration #ReformsinUkraine #SupportUkraine #UkraineFacility
In July, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 1.8%, but a grant from the US raised August’s total to $40B. As of August 1, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $37.2B. In July, they decreased by 1.8%, the National Bank reported. Last month, the dynamics of international reserves were determin... #financeUkraine #GrantForUkraine #imf #internationalReserves #nbu #UkraineBudget2024
The ratio of mortgage loans to GDP in Ukraine is at most 1%: What is happening in this market? The National Bank reported that the ratio of mortgage loans to GDP in Ukraine is 1%, the lowest indicator in Europe. Obstacles to mortgage growth are the uncertain prospects in the real estate market ... #AffordableLoans #AffordableMortgages #eOselya #MortgagesUkraine #nbu
The necessary conditions for further discount rate reductions in Ukraine are no longer present. Thanks to favorable macro-financial trends, the National Bank of Ukraine has reduced the discount rate from 25% to 13% in one year. However, the NBU does not currently see further prerequisites for lo... #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #InterestRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
What threats does the reduction of international financial aid to $21.1B in 2026 pose to Ukraine? The NBU’s basic scenario envisages the preservation of significant volumes of external financing for Ukraine, which, however, will slowly decrease as Ukraine’s ability to fund its budget e... #financialaidforUkraine #LoanForUkraine #nbu #RussianAssetsProfits #SupportUkraine #UkraineBudget
The parliament proposes a solution for NPLs: creating a “bad assets bank” using a nationalized state bank. The creation of a bad asset bank will allow the settlement of current and future problem debts accumulated during the full-scale war, said the head of the Parliamentary Committee on Finances, Danylo H... #BadBank #DanyloHetmantsev #NonPerformingLoans #NPL #Problemloans
Ukraine may not be able to find an additional ₴500B for defense needs. Even with a proposed radical tax increase, Ukraine may not fully overcome the fiscal gap that must be closed for effective and timely financing of its military needs. Analysts from RRR4U think tanks h... #BudgetDeficit #DefenseSpending #financialaidforUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineDefensePurchases
How will the collapse of European, Asian, and US stock markets affect Ukraine? The value of shares in leading US and European companies and businesses is rapidly decreasing. First, the reduction concerns assets with a high level of risk. For Ukraine, these events in the financia... #FinancialMarket #ForeignCompaniesShares #foreignexchangemarket #StockMarket
Ukraine will soon receive the first tranche of direct budget support from the US; another $3.9B will arrive by the end of the year. The State Budget of Ukraine will receive a grant from the US totaling almost $3.9B after representatives from the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine and the World Bank signed a corresponding agreement. Th... #PEACEproject #SupportUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #worldbank
Despite market fears, Ukraine has paid $200M to GDP warrant holders. Ukraine has paid about $200M to holders of its GDP warrants, securities that weren’t part of a recent $20B Eurobond restructuring agreement with private creditors. The warrants have disbursements link... #DebtRestructuring #EurobondsPayments #GDPwarrants #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
The Cabinet of Ministers introduces a payment moratorium for Ukraine’s Eurobonds. The Cabinet of Ministers exercised the right granted to it by the Ukrainian Parliament and introduced a temporary moratorium on Ukraine’s Eurobond payments. “In connection with the impleme... #debtpayments #DebtRestructuring #Eurobond #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt #ukravtodor
Banks have provided ₴3.6B in loans to the energy industry; Japan will help Ukraine build distributed power generation. Since Ukraine’s energy generation capacity restoration programs began, banks have approved loan applications for ₴3.6B. Last week, 20 Ukrainian banks received applications for ₴1.8B under all av... #ElectricityGeneration #EnergyRestore #energyukraine #HeatingSeason #Japan #JICA
Given the war’s continuation, Ukraine will need up to $15B in additional funding next year. According to Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko, Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimate the country’s additional financial need for 2025 from Western partners at between $12B ... #imf #MilitaryLevy #SerhiyMarchenko #TaxesUkraine #UkraineBudget
The Ministry of Finance is ready for a compromise with the parliament regarding tax increases. According to Minister of Finance Serhii Marchenko, this strictly depends on the how the parliament plans to secure an additional ₴120B in revenue by the end of 2024. The Ministry of Finance has propos... #MilitaryLevy #PennyPritzker #SerhiyMarchenko #TaxesUkraine #UkraineBudget
The NBU: Profitable Ukrainian companies do not use bank loans. Bank loans are not utilized by operationally profitable companies, which account for about 66% of their total operating profits, NBU data shows. In 2023, 8.6% of companies that borrowed money from Ukr... #BankLoans #LoansforBusiness #nbu #UkraineCompaniesProfit #ukrainianbusiness
Ukraine will receive $3.9B in direct budget support from the US, said Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal. He expressed hope that Ukraine will be able to receive $50B in 2025 through the G7 initiative to use the profits from frozen Russian assets. In addition, ... #DenysShmyhal #financialaidforUkraine #G7 #LoansForUkraine #RussianAssetsProfits #SerhiyMarchenko #UkraineBudget2024
