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In addition to the influence of geopolitical factors, such as the pandemic or the Russian war in Ukraine, which have already pushed prices up on global markets, additional price increases are expected separately for nickel, cobalt, lithium, copper, and other minerals, according to IMF experts on trends related to the transition to clean energy and mitigation of the consequences of climate change. They emphasize that copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium are critical resources for the energy sector’s transition. These minerals

The head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, believes the West should provide financial aid to Ukraine as soon as possible. In her opinion, Ukraine can cope with the likely short-term financing deficit for “a couple of months.” However, Ukraine’s economic recovery will be in jeopardy if it is forced to adjust to a lack of new financial support. Further delays could force Ukraine to return to destabilizing policies such as money printing. “We need Ukraine’s partners to contribute – both

In Ukraine, the level of bank lending is low, which is a significant obstacle to the recovery of the country, according to former member of the NBU Council, Bohdan Danylyshyn. Danylyshyn states that, during the war, the has IMF noted that bank lending within the Ukrainian economy significantly decreased from 18.8% of GDP in 2021 to 14.2% of GDP in 2023. “This decline occurred even though preferential lending support programs account for about 13% of bank loan portfolios. The IMF

To that end, the restructuring will be carried out by the middle of 2024, said the head of the IMF mission in Ukraine, Gavin Gray. “An ambitious external commercial debt restructuring should be carried out in the first half of 2024 to help restore debt sustainability while creating much-needed fiscal space,” he said. The IMF clarified that the official moratorium regarding public creditors will last until the end of the program with the IMF in 2027, and the moratorium period

Ukraine will fully repay the IMF under the 2018 stand-by program, which amounts to $166M at the current exchange rate, said Economist Oleksiy Blinov. According to him, the payment will be provided from gold and currency reserves (GCR) and can be made without burdening state finances. At the beginning of 2024, Ukraine’s debt to the IMF will amount to $11.85B. The effective rate for this debt is currently 7% per annum. Blinov also mentioned another significant milestone: the transfer of

Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators have been stronger than expected despite the ongoing war. This contributed to the upward revision of the IMF’s forecast for economic growth. The IMF revised their basic estimates of real GDP growth of Ukraine in 2023 to 4.5%. However, growth is expected to moderate slightly to 3-4% in 2024 as the war drags on. Additionally, significant risks remain due to high uncertainty caused by war, potential policy miscalculations, and delays or shortfalls in external financing. The IMF

During the nine months of the IMF program, requirements have been met for 16 of the IMF’s 23 structural beacons and eight of the 20 conditions under the EU program. The country has neither fulfilled nor missed the deadline for six of the IMF beacons and three EU obligations, according to monitoring by RRR4U analysts. It is noted that the most problematic aspects of implementing the IMF program remain two tasks in fiscal policy: the return of the 5-7-9 affordable

As of October 2023, the average cost of servicing all loans granted to Ukraine by external official creditors is about 2.1% per annum, said former NBU executive Bohdan Danylyshyn. According to him, IMF loans are the most expensive borrowings taken by Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Their maintenance in 2023 will cost about 8% per annum. For comparison, the loan from France in November 2022 has a fixed yield of 1.04% per annum, the loan from Japan in

In the IMF’s notification regarding the arrangements for the second review of the program as part of the expanded financing of the EFF, it is noted that the Ukrainian economy continues to demonstrate extraordinary resilience and further signs of stabilization. Recent economic developments point to a stronger-than-expected economic recovery in 2023 and a significant decline in inflation amid solid reserves and a stable foreign exchange market. Therefore, the IMF improved its growth forecast for Ukraine’s 2023 GDP to 4.5%. Just

Ukraine’s economy continues to recover in 2023 amid infrastructure attacks, and its growth could reach 1-3% this year, 3.2% next year, and 6.5% in 2025. However, the duration and intensity of the war pose a significant risk to economic prospects, an IMF forecast says. “Medium-term prospects depend on the outcome of the war, the scale of reconstruction costs, the return of migrants, structural reforms, and prospects for joining the EU,” the forecast states. According to the Fund, the current recovery

The amount of international financial aid that Ukraine has received this year will exceed $45B, but in the next two years it will gradually decrease to $38.5B and $25B, respectively, the NBU predicts. At the same time, Ukraine’s fulfillment of its obligations and continued active cooperation with the IMF and other partners will remain critically important for receiving aid. In addition, as security risks decrease and economic recovery accelerates, the focus for international aid will shift from supporting macroeconomic stability

On November 6, the IMF mission began discussing the second review of the extended financing program with Ukrainian authorities, said IMF Resident Representative to Ukraine, Vahram Stepanyan. The NBU clarified that during the second review of the EFF program, the status of Ukraine’s fulfillment of its obligations under the Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policy will be reviewed. These include measures in fiscal and budgetary programs, monetary and currency policy, financial stability, and structural reforms for medium and long-term economic

In the second reading, the Ukrainian Parliament supported draft law No. 9296-d on strengthening financial monitoring of politically exposed persons (PEP). The document’s main innovation is that top officials will have lifetime PEP status instead of three years. At the same time, the draft law strengthens institutional responsibility in the following areas: insurance, law, and finance. The redaction of the document before the second reading complies with AML/CFT standards and will be in compliance with IMF requirements. It is also

Ukraine’s economy is showing stability during the current year, and GDP growth is forecast to be 4.7%, said Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko. “Inflation is falling faster than expected: 7.1% in September 2023 from 26.6% in 2022. The domestic borrowing has exceeded forecasts and reached more than $11B since the beginning of the year,” he added. In addition, Marchenko said that the 2024 budget will allocate maximum resources for the security and defense sector and the development of the domestic defense

Ukraine has shown outstanding results in the country’s economic management during the war, but its needs in external financing in 2024 will be $3B more, and it is necessary to help Ukraine cope with this task, said IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva. “I firmly believe that our investments in Ukraine are not charity. They are investments,” she said. According to her, the preliminary results of the mission for the preparation of the second revision of the EFF program with the IMF

IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that this financing will take place under the Enhanced Funding Program (EFF). “In June, we completed the first review of this program, bringing the IMF’s support this year to $3.6B of the $15.6B available under the program. Additional funds will be available in December following the completion of the second review and subject to approval by the Board of Directors,” said Georgieva. According to her, Ukrainian authorities have made good progress, including the restoration of

According to the October World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund predicts the gradual return of refugees to Ukraine as early as 2024. The population of Ukraine in 2021 was 41 million people. In 2022, it decreased to 34.8 million, and in 2023 – to 33.2 million. The IMF predicts that in 2024, the number will increase to 33.7 million people, growth will continue, and in 2028 the population will reach 36.1 million. It is worth noting that in August,

According to the head of the IMF mission, Gavin Gray, Ukraine first must adopt the new gas transportation system operator statute. Secondly, it is still waiting for resolution on the issue of business tax audits. “Thirdly, the authorities of Ukraine should develop a conceptual note regarding the preferential lending program, known as 5-7-9, which should outline the vision for improving its monitoring and preventing negative consequences for the financial sector,” Gray said. He also emphasized that the IMF expects to

As the head of the IMF mission, Gavin Gray, noted, this should be considered because the need to finance social expenditures will increase after the war’s end. “That’s why the authorities need to focus on strengthening the capacity to collect revenues – both tax and customs,” added Gray. He noted that by the end of this year, Ukrainian authorities plan to launch the National Income Strategy. At the same time, the IMF representative reminded observers that the IMF developed a

As Reuters writes, preliminary consultations with foreign bondholders regarding the restructuring of payments began ahead of schedule and have been going on for several weeks. Talks with bondholders were due to start early next year, but Ukraine is keen to agree on a restructuring as soon as possible in order to attract new financing. Ukraine was allowed to postpone debt repayment until 2027 through a decision from the Group of Creditors, which includes all G7 states. This postponement is valid