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According to a new projection by the Vienna-based economic research institute, annual GDP growth slowed to 1% in the first quarter of 2025, down from 2.9% last year. For 2025, wiiw predicts growth of 2.5%, which is 0.5% lower than their spring forecast. Positive signs from strong consumer demand and robust industrial production, especially in the defense sector, will not be able to offset the damage caused by Russia’s ongoing aggression. Inflation continued to rise from April to May and

The IMF’s baseline scenario assumes the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine by the end of 2025. According to IMF expectations, if peace is reached Ukraine’s economic growth will rise to 4.5% in 2026. However, Ukraine needs guarantees and resources for economic growth. “A peaceful settlement without reliable security guarantees and/or sufficient financial resources for reconstruction and defense could lead to adverse economic and social consequences,” experts warn. The IMF notes that uncertainty will hinder the return of refugees, the

In May 2025, Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.1% compared to the same month last year, according to the IER. Analysts note that while the growth rate remains low, there are several positive indicators emerging. For instance, real gross value added (GVA) in the processing sector increased by 2.4% in May, up from 1.4% in April. Additionally, the decline in the extractive sector softened to 10.4% in May, attributed to a rebound in gas production and an

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated during a congressional hearing that in two decades, Ukraine’s economy could exceed that of Russia’s. He believes that a stable Ukrainian economy will provide the best long-term defense for Ukraine, a view also shared by US President Donald Trump. Bessent highlighted the close connection between national security and economic stability. He pointed out that the Trump administration is making efforts to launch the US-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund as quickly as possible in order to

The updated World Bank forecast notes that discussions on a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine began earlier this year; however, the prospects for a long-term settlement remain uncertain. Ukraine’s economic growth is expected to rise to 5.2% by 2026. This growth acceleration considers the bank’s expectation that the Russian invasion “will last until the end of 2025, after which active hostilities will begin to subside.” The projected growth in 2026 assumes a surge in investment in manufacturing and reconstruction,

Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the Verkhovna Rada Finance Committee, revealed that the shadow sector is estimated at ₴800-900B ($21.7B). About 30-50% of the economy exists in the shadows, with some sectors exceeding 60%, which creates significant barriers to economic progress. “In European countries, the shadow economy comprises only about 5-7%,” the politician explained. Hetmantsev noted that this new estimate is based on GDP growth. He emphasized that addressing the shadow economy could generate approximately ₴400B in additional funding for the

On May 30, Moody’s Rating Agency affirmed the long-term issuer ratings of the Ukrainian government in foreign and national currencies at Ca – one of the lowest credit ratings on Moody’s scale, indicating a very high risk of default. The justification states that the ongoing war with Russia continues to create long-term challenges for the economy and public finances. The agency forecasts that Ukraine’s economic growth rate in 2025 will slow to 2.5% (compared to 2.9% in 2024), the state

The growth of Ukraine’s economy slowed in the first quarter of the year and the main reason for that is the war, said Danylo Hetmantsev, chairman of the parliamentary finance committee. He recalled that in 2023, GDP growth was at 5.5%, in 2024 – 2.9%. That is, the decline in growth rate occurred last year. “We have a further slowdown in recovery. In the first quarter, GDP grew by 0.5%. This is several times less than in 2024, when in

Fitch has affirmed Ukraine’s rating at Restricted Default for the second consecutive time in response to its foreign currency debts. The national currency rating stands at CCC+, indicating a very high risk. Fitch explained the decision by noting that Ukraine is still restructuring its external debt. Although Ukrenergo has reached an agreement with bondholders to restructure 2021 green bonds totaling $825M, GDP warrants ($2.6B) and the Cargill loan ($0.7B) remain unrestructured. Ukraine also continues to service its domestic debt in

This adjustment is attributed to ongoing war pressures that severely impact production capacity and business confidence. For 2026, the GDP growth forecast has been decreased from 5.9% to 4.7%. A decline in exports is expected, driven by decreasing industrial output, especially in energy-intensive sectors facing high energy costs, compounded by the closure of Pokrovskvuhillya, a vital steel industry supplier. Additionally, agricultural exports are projected to drop due to diminished stocks resulting from a poor 2024 harvest attributed to adverse weather.

Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2025 could accelerate to 3.5-5.5% if Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement on a long-term ceasefire. If the war continues, Ukraine’s economic growth will slow to 2.5%, according to the Dragon Capital team. The company has downgraded its forecast by 0.5 percentage points in both the long-term ceasefire scenario and the continued war scenario. Annual inflation is also expected to begin declining in June-July due to ongoing weakening of fundamental pressures and a high comparison

According to the Ministry of Finance, Ukraine’s total public (direct and guaranteed) debt increased by 1.56%, or $2.64B, in March, totaling $171.73B compared to the previous month. Direct external debt rose from $118.05B to $120.94B during the month, while direct domestic debt fell in dollar terms from $44.31B to $44.26B. By the end of the reporting month, state-guaranteed debt amounted to $6.753B. Last year, Ukraine’s total public debt grew by 14.27%, or $20.74B, reaching $166.06B. According to the IMF’s Fiscal

The IER reports that in March, due to better access to electricity and the gradual recovery of demand, Ukraine’s economic situation improved slightly – real GDP growth was 1.3%. In contrast, in previous months the figures were lower: January – 1.2% and February – 0.7%. Industries that demonstrated growth in gross value added: Industry. Growth of 2.5% in March resulted from a moderate increase in domestic demand and exports, despite Russian attacks on the Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih and Kharkiv. Trade.

According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), global economic growth will slow in the coming years. This year, global GDP is projected to grow by only 2.8% and by 3% in 2026. For comparison, 2024’s figure was 3.3%, while the average growth rate from 2000 to 2019 was 3.7%. The deterioration in expectations is attributed to changes in government policy priorities and a new wave of tariff restrictions, particularly from the US, which create a serious negative shock to

A report from the ICU investment company notes that Ukraine’s real GDP increased by only 2.9% in 2024, significantly below market expectations and their earlier forecasts. Economic growth weakened considerably last year due to a steep decline in the harvest, affecting both the agriculture and food sectors, as well as a reduction in government consumption triggered by a decrease in the state budget deficit to 24% of GDP from 27% the previous year. Agricultural production is expected to rise significantly

Industries in Ukraine’s mining and metallurgical complex (MMC) contributed 7.2% to Ukraine’s GDP in 2024, up from 5.7% in 2023. The increase in the MMC’s share resulted from a rise in steel (+21.5%) and iron ore (+55.2%) production. The Black Sea corridor’s stable operation  enabled exports from Ukraine’s ports, which fueled the metallurgical industry’s positive production dynamics. Ukraine’s MMC is gradually reclaiming its position as a global player following the resumption of sea exports. In 2024, Ukraine ranked third in

Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 2.9% in 2024. Although the economy experienced growth for the second consecutive year amid the full-scale war, the pace of recovery decelerated compared to 2023, when GDP increased by 5.5%. The NBU cited the worsening security situation, renewed electricity shortages, and low harvests as reasons for the slowdown. By the end of last year, gross value added (GVA) in agriculture fell by 7.3%, and the energy sector’s GVA decreased by 2.7%. However, for the first

The Finance Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament believes that, considering current economic growth trends, Ukraine’s real GDP in 2025 will be 20% lower than in 2021, excluding temporarily occupied territories or areas where hostilities are ongoing. Therefore, achieving the pre-war GDP level in real terms will not likely occur before 2034. Security risks have historically been and will continue to be the primary constraint on economic development. According to the Ministry of Economy, February 2025’s real GDP growth was 0.7%

The growth rate of real Ukrainian GDP decreased to 0.5% during the same month. This downturn is attributed to the damaging effects of Russian shelling on various industries and heightened uncertainty for businesses. In January, GDP growth was 1.3%, according to the Institute for Economic Research (IER). Consequently, in February the shelling of ports led to a 4.5% decline in the real gross value added (GVA) in the transport sector. Growth rates in trade also slowed to 3.5% compared to

Analysts from the Institute of Economic Research projected that, despite the devastating impact of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine’s economy is showing resilience. The forecasted GDP growth in 2025 is 2.9%, in 2026 – 3.2%. But real GDP remains 17.4% below the pre-war level. The main forecast indicators for the years of 2025 and 2026 are as following: Inflation – 12.5% ​​(2025), 6.5% (2026) State debt – 89% of GDP, 85% of GDP State budget financing needs, considering domestic debt