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The EBRD has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2025 to 3.5%. Last September, the bank forecasted growth of 4.7%. It is noted that Ukraine started 2025 with weak economic indicators and rising inflation. The bank revised its forecast as Russia’s attacks on power infrastructure continue to hamper production. “Ukraine’s GDP growth will reach 3.5% in 2025, and then accelerate to 5% in 2026, provided that there is a ceasefire by the end of 2025,” the bank stated.

Inflation in Ukraine is expected to decrease during 2025-2026, dropping to 5%. According to the National Bank’s forecast, inflation will peak in the second quarter of 2025, and begin to decline to 8.4% by the end of 2025 and to the NBU’s target of 5% in 2026. The inflation slowdown will be aided by the NBU’s measures, foreign exchange market stability, the new harvest, a reduction in Ukraine’s fiscal deficit, and weaker external price pressures. The labor market’s influence on

Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s state debt has risen by 156% (+₴4.25T) in hryvnia and by 78% (+$72.7B) in foreign currency, according to Danylo Hetmantsev, chairman of the parliamentary finance committee. The debt burden on the Ukrainian economy increased from 49% of GDP in 2021 to an anticipated 90.4% in 2024. Additionally, the state debt’s composition has become more vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. Hetmantsev pointed out that despite three years of full-scale war Ukraine has managed

Considering security risks and the difficult situation in the labor market, the NBU has worsened its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 GDP growth from 4.3% to 3.6%. At the same time, the bank predicts the economy’s gradual return to normal operating conditions. Accordingly, in 2026-2027 a moderate acceleration of economic growth is expected – to about 4%. The recovery will be facilitated by investment in energy and production capacities, maintaining a soft fiscal policy, and growing private consumption against increasing household

Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2024 was 3.6%. “If we look at the level of GDP by the level of the available population, we have now reached a record GDP per capita,” said Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Andriy Telyupa. According to the Ministry of Economy forecast, 2025 GDP will grow by 2.7%, and inflation will slow to 9.5%. At the same time, the average salary in Ukraine in dollar terms is currently at a record high because of

As of the end of 2024, Ukraine’s national debt reached to approximately ₴7T. Forbes analysts calculated that the ratio of national debt to GDP has reached 92%. This is the total national debt, which, in addition to Ukraine’s direct debt, also includes debts guaranteed by the state. It is noted that in the structure of national debt, the lion’s share (96%) falls on the state’s direct debt, the remaining 4% on debts guaranteed by the state. For comparison, in 2023

Ukraine demonstrated moderate economic growth in 2024 at 3.8%, and real GDP growth in 2025 will be approximately 3%, according to the Institute for Economic Research (IER). Access to the Ukrainian Sea Corridor facilitated growth in metallurgy production, iron ore mining, and agricultural exports. Also, better logistics than in 2023 contributed to growth in exports of goods. According to preliminary figures, exports increased by 15% last year and imports by 8%. It is noted that defense orders continued to contribute

The Economist notes that the Ukrainian economy looks “healthier” than the Russian economy did after the start of the full-scale war. Ukraine’s economy has been rebuilt to navigate the realities of wartime. However, it is still 25% smaller than in 2021. Meanwhile, the NBU forecasts GDP growth of 4% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025. The currency is stable, and the discount rate of 13.5% is close to a 30-month low. However, state spending is greater than revenue. Almost the

The growth rate of Ukraine’s economy in 2025 will decrease to 3.4% compared to the expected result of 4% in 2024. At the same time, inflation will slow from 11.5% to 7%. ICU predicts that Ukraine’s nominal GDP in 2025 will amount to $203B, compared to the $191B currently forecasted for 2024. Experts believe that the growth rate of private household consumption will decrease slightly due to slower income growth. Analysts also do not expect significant changes in exports and

Over the 11 months of the year, the Ukrainian economy grew by 4% [±0.5%], according to the Ministry of Economy. “The drivers of growth remain the transport and construction industries, processing, and domestic trade,” Minister Yulia Svyrydenko commented on the figures. According to her, state support programs played a massive role by providing grants for processing, business creation, and development, affordable 5-7-9% lending, e-Oselya, and others within the Made in Ukraine policy framework. Also, increased purchases of Ukrainian defense products

Ukraine’s public debt is already approaching 100% of GDP, and financing needs for recovery are currently around $600B. Even under the baseline scenario, the peak value of public debt is 103.9% of GDP, significantly deviating from an economically safe level. Under a pessimistic scenario, a permanent increase in public debt is projected, reaching a maximum value of 130% of GDP in 2028. Overall, the analysis shows that maintaining the sustainability of Ukraine’s public finances in the medium term will require

An IMF team has improved its economic growth forecast for Ukraine this year from 3% to 4%, as the Ukrainian economy has performed better than expected in the previous two quarters, IMF spokeswoman Julia Kozack said. Ukraine and the IMF have agreed on several strategies and reforms to support macroeconomic stability during the war. However, the outlook remains uncertain, with the Russian war still causing significant losses. Kozack also said that the IMF’s executive board will meet to review the

Ukraine’s economy grew by 4.2% over the 10 months of the year, and in October growth slowed to 1.3% against 3.8% in September, reports the Ministry of Economy. It is noted that the drivers of growth remain the transport and construction industries, as well as the processing industry, which all demonstrate high positive dynamics. However, there was a decline in the agriculture sector. The reason is the early harvest: Farmers had finished harvesting some crops by October. At the same

Macroeconomic indicators of the Ukrainian economy in 2024 show growth, but positive dynamics are slowing down. The growth potential represented by the economic recovery from the fall in 2022 has been exhausted. Real GDP in the second quarter of 2024 increased by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted), and by 3.7% compared to the second quarter of 2023. The volume of industrial production increased by 8.1% in the first half of the year. The following sectoral dynamics are

Yuriy Butsa, the government commissioner for public debt management, notes that Ukraine issued GDP warrants in 2015. According to the terms, any GDP growth above 3% per year triggers payments to warrant holders, and in May 2025 Ukraine will be required to pay “hundreds of millions of dollars” for 2023’s GDP growth of 5.3%. In August of this year, Ukraine paid $70.5M to warrant holders, but on August 27, the government introduced a moratorium on further payments. The warrants expire

In August, the Ukrainian economy grew by 3.5% (±1%) compared to August last year. Based on the results of eight months of the year, GDP growth is estimated at 3.9% against the corresponding period of 2023. As the Minister of Economy Yuliya Svyrydenko explained, the main contribution to this growth was made by industry, which established a direct import of electricity and positive dynamics in transport, construction, and internal trade, where there was an increase in turnover due to a

The IMF predicts the growth of Ukraine’s real GDP at 3% in 2024 with inflation at 9%, the National Bank reported following the IMF mission. The IMF emphasized that Ukrainian fiscal policy, high adaptability shown by the population and business community, and stable external financing all helped to support macroeconomic and financial stability. Real GDP grew by 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, and international reserves were sufficient – $42.3B as of September 1. However, economic growth is forecast to

In July, Ukraine’s GDP growth accelerated to 2.7% after rising 1.6% in June in response to early harvesting. For January-July, growth is estimated at 4% [±1%], which generally corresponds with the forecasted trends, noted the Ministry of Economy. It is reported that in July, the economy was operating under rigorous blackout schedules due to a shortage of electricity, making it difficult for businesses to operate against rising costs. At the same time, it was possible to compensate for the negative

Scientists presented research on the development of investment projects in Ukraine: To achieve the goals of the Development of hydrogen energy in Ukraine project, a total investment of €32.882B will be necessary. The average annual contribution to GDP will be €5.817B. The Development of metal titanium production in Ukraine project will provide for the construction of a new ₴11.4B plant that will produce innovative titanium products. Implementing the project will create 3,500 new jobs and bring ₴81B in tax revenues

The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings notes high uncertainty regarding the scope, results, and consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine. “If the economy begins to recover, given the damage caused by the war, we do not expect Ukraine’s real GDP to reach pre-war levels until 2027, as previously assumed,” S&P said in a statement. The agency notes that the restructuring of Ukraine’s debt is taking place against the background of significant economic, external, and fiscal pressure caused by