The IMF has returned Ukraine to its long-term economic forecast and improved expectations for GDP growth.

After the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, the IMF only gave a forecast for the current year in its World Economic Outlook. Now, estimates for Ukraine for 2024-2028 are included in the review.

According to the updated macro forecast, the IMF expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2023 and accelerate to 3.2% in 2024. As for inflation, the IMF forecasts an average annual inflation of 17.7% this year and 13% in 2024. According to the forecast, the dollar GDP of Ukraine will exceed the pre-war level of $199.8B (for 2021) only in 2026, when it will amount to $206.6B.

According to IMF calculations, the average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar will be in 2023 – ₴37.5 for $1, in 2024 – ₴41.4, and in 2028 – ₴53.9.

As for the world economy, according to analysts, growth will be 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024.