The government noted an acceleration of GDP growth in March to 4.6%, but analysts predict a further decline.

The Ministry of Economy estimated GDP growth in March to be at the level of 4.6%, while in January, the growth was at 3.5%, and in February, 3.9%. The GDP growth trend is supported by stable seaport operations, which have stimulated activity in railway transport, metallurgy, and mining of metal ores.

Several other factors have also contributed to these positive indicators, including increased production capacities in the mining industry, renewed production of mineral fertilizers, increased demand for construction services, improvement in business sentiments, and the revival of consumer activity.

However, the ICU investment group worsened its forecast for the growth of Ukraine’s economy for 2024 from 5% to 4.1% due to Russian attacks on infrastructure, but at the same time improved the inflation forecast from 10.1% to 6.4%.

“The economy continues to grow at an acceptable pace in 2024, and the large-scale destruction of the energy infrastructure will only slow down, but not stop, the recovery,” ICU analysts say.

Nominal GDP is expected to be $190B this year, down $9B from the December forecast.