The hryvnia’s fate: Experts provide their forecasts. Bankers, households, and financial analysts expect the dollar to the hryvnia exchange rate to rise over the next 12 months. Banks predict that the exchange rate will be ₴44.92 per $1, which is higher ... #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #hryvniaexchangerate #HryvniaRating #nbu
Lending to businesses and households in Ukraine has been growing for a year and a half; rates have been reduced for both loans and deposits. According to the NBU, in the third quarter of 2024 loan portfolio volume increased by 22.4%. Hryvnia business loans grew by 6.9%, and individual loans increased by 9.7%. Loans in wholesale trade and t... #BankDeposits #eOselya #financeUkraine #LendingProgram #nbu
The NBU has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s international aid for the coming years. According to the NBU, Ukraine is expected to receive about $42B in international financing for 2024, $38B in 2025, and $25B in 2026. By the end of 2024, Ukraine will receive $4.8B under the SPUR progr... #financialaidforUkraine #G7 #nbu #SupportUkraine #UkraineBudget #worldbank
There are 14 million people of working age left in Ukraine, almost 42,000 are unemployed, and an acute shortage of personnel is pushing up salaries. After the start of the full-scale war and mass emigration in Ukraine, the working population decreased from 18 to 14 million people, said economist and member of the Economic Discussion Club, Oleg Pen... #EmployeeDeficit #JobInUkraine #LaborMarketUkraine #nbu #SalaryUkraine #UkraineEconomy
Inflation is accelerating in Ukraine, but the NBU predicts it will decrease next year. In October 2024, consumer prices increased by 1.8% compared to September; annual inflation accelerated to 9.7% (8.6% in September), according to the Ukrainian State Statistics Service. Since the begin... #InflationinUkraine #nbu #pricesinUkraine #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
The West is changing its position toward confiscation of frozen Russian assets. “If earlier the West spoke very cautiously about the possibility of using these assets, now we hear the statements of the G7 that these assets will remain immobilized. This is a ‘break in ... #AndriiPyshnyi #G7 #LoanForUkraine #nbu #RussianAssetsArrested #SanctionsAgainstRussia
Bankers do not expect a change in the key policy rate by the end of the year, but there are risks. Ukrainian bankers believe that the Board of the NBU will leave the discount rate at the current level of 13% per annum at a meeting on Thursday. “However, a return to tightening monetary policy ... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #OTPbank #PravexBank #RaiffeisenBank #UkrainianBanks
Ukraine will settle nonperforming loans, which will help to attract private investment. The National Bank of Ukraine and the IFC signed an agreement to create an infrastructure for resolving nonperforming loans (NPL) in the Ukrainian banking system. The agreement envisages the creation o... #ifc #nbu #NonPerformingLoans #NPL #UkraineBankingSystem
Ukrainians have bought the equivalent of 33% of Ukraine’s international aid for their savings. The purchase of foreign currency by the Ukrainian population has increased by 250% compared to the previous year. In the last 12 months, the population bought foreign currency worth $10.6B, including ... #BohdanDanylyshyn #CurrencyLiberalization #CurrencyMarket #CurrencySale #financeUkraine #nbu
Ukrainians are increasingly buying foreign currency. The NBU had to increase interventions to a three-month high. According to ICU analysts, demand for foreign currency among Ukrainians remains at a very high level and is forcing the NBU to sell large volumes of it from its international reserves to maintain the ... #currencyexchange #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #nbu
In September, prices for goods and services in Ukraine rose faster than the National Bank’s forecast. Consumer inflation accelerated to 8.6% year-on-year in September against 7.5% in August. “The actual pace of price growth was higher than the forecast published in the Inflation Report for July ... #InflationinUkraine #nbu #pricesinUkraine #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
The MoF raises a record ₴30B from the sale of government bonds, and the NBU expands the list of required benchmark domestic government debt securities. On October 8, the Ministry of Finance placed bonds of the domestic state loan (OVDP) for a total amount of ₴30.26B ($750M). This is more than for the month of August (₴29.1B) and is the largest figure... #BondsUkraine #financeUkraine #nbu #OVDP #UkraineSecurities
In September, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 8.1% to $38.9B. As noted by the National Bank, this dynamic results from the NBU’s currency interventions to cover the structural currency deficit on the market and smooth out exchange rate fluctuations, as wel... #Creditors #financeUkraine #internationalReserves #nbu #OVDP #UkraineDebtRepayment #worldbank
Price increases accelerated in August: The NBU explains why. According to the National Bank, in August consumer inflation accelerated to 7.5% in annual terms (from 5.4% in July), as was expected. At the same time, core inflation increased more significantly tha... #FoodPrices #FuelPricesUkraine #InflationinUkraine #nbu #pricesinUkraine #UkraineEconomy
The Ministry of Economy names four critical price growth factors in Ukraine. In August, consumer prices increased by 0.6% for the month. On an annualized basis (August 2024 compared to August 2023), inflation accelerated to 7.5% from 5.4% a month earlier, according to the Moni... #ElectricityDeficitUkraine #InflationinUkraine #nbu #pricesinUkraine #UkraineEconomy
The NBU maintains this year’s economic growth forecast of 3.7% despite the situation in the energy sector and expects positive results from tax increases. As noted by the head of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshnyi, the regulator remains largely confident in the forecast it presented in July. “The economy will grow by 3.7% this year. The assumption ... #AndriiPyshnyi #ElectricityDeficitUkraine #EnergyRestore #nbu #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
What are the NBU’s plans regarding the key policy rate? Almost all (10 out of 11) of the NBU’s Monetary Policy Committee members support keeping the discount rate at 13%. The NBU notes that the majority believes that the current rate level provides n... #AndriiPyshnyi #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Ukrainians are increasing their debt – lending increased by 5.3%. In the second quarter, financial services companies and pawnshops showed an increase in the volume of basic types of services, even against a total reduction of assets by 12.3%. Credit unions and life... #BankLoans #financeUkraine #MicroCrediting #nbu #PawnShops #UkrainiansDebt
The National Bank of Ukraine kept the key policy rate unchanged at 13%. This decision will contribute to the gradual return of inflation to the 5% target in the following years and support the foreign exchange market’s stability, the NBU reported. It is also aimed a... #financeUkraine #foreignexchangemarket #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
National Bank: inflation will grow at a higher rate than predicted. Last week, the State Statistics Service announced that consumer inflation accelerated to 7.5% annually in August from 5.4% in July. In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.6%. However, the NBU noted t... #Hryvnia #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
The yield on deposits in Ukraine is falling, and loans are becoming cheaper. The average bank interest rates on new hryvnia consumer deposits in August amounted to 10.6% per annum, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than a month ago, NBU data shows. Interest rates on new cons... #BankDeposits #BankLoans #financeUkraine #nbu #UkrainianBanking
The IMF has worsened its GDP growth and inflation forecasts for Ukraine. The IMF predicts the growth of Ukraine’s real GDP at 3% in 2024 with inflation at 9%, the National Bank reported following the IMF mission. The IMF emphasized that Ukrainian fiscal policy, high ... #GDPinUkraine #imf #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
The National Bank eased currency restrictions for businesses starting September 10. Beginning on September 10, Ukrainian businesses will be able to: Purchase and transfer foreign currency to cover carbon dioxide emissions. State-owned enterprises can buy currency and transfer it to ... #CurrencyRestrictions #foreigncurrency #internationalReserves #nbu #ukrainianbusiness
The NBU explains why Ukraine’s price growth accelerated in the summer. In July, consumer inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 5.4% annually compared to 4.8% in June. According to the NBU’s estimates, the tendency toward accelerated consumer inflation continued in Au... #hryvniaexchangerate #InflationinUkraine #nbu #pricesinUkraine #UkraineEconomy
The situation in the Ukrainian labor market increases business costs and the price dynamics for goods and services. According to the September review by the National Bank of Ukraine, the improvement of Ukraine’s energy situation in August contributed to an increase in demand for labor and the number of employees. I... #EmployeeDeficit #JobInUkraine #LaborMarketUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UnemploymentUkraine
Ukrainians are increasing their investment in government bonds: The share is already 4%. In August 2024, the Ministry of Finance raised ₴29.1B from the issuance of government bonds. Military bonds accounted for ₴6B of the total volume of government bonds issued in August. As of September ... #financeUkraine #investments #nbu #OVDP #UkraineBond
The IMF pushes Ukraine to raise taxes and depreciate the hryvnia, with $1.1B in new financial aid at stake. Ukrainian officials expect the IMF this week to push the country toward faster currency devaluation, lower interest rates, and to increase tax collection efforts to close the country’s budget de... #BudgetDeficit #financeUkraine #hryvniadevaluation #imf #nbu #UkraineBudget
Over the first half of the year, banks increased their profits by 17%. In the first six months of the year, solvent banks earned ₴79B in net profit, 17% more than the ₴67.6B profit obtained in the same period last year. Only seven small banks out of 62 solvent financial ... #IncomeTaxationUkraine #nbu #OVDP #UkraineBanksProfits #UkrainianBanks
The volume of foreign exchange earnings by exporters increased by 16%, but up to $8B still must be returned to Ukraine. According to the NBU, the amount of export earnings received in Ukraine for January-June 2024 exceeded the result for the same period in 2023 by 15.9%, or $3.3B, while the amount of unreturned foreign... #currencyexchange #CurrencyRestrictions #nbu #UkraineEconomy #UkraineExport
Ukrainians are building up hryvnia savings in bank accounts. In July, the amount of funds in household hryvnia accounts temporarily decreased, but at the beginning of August, they recovered and continued to grow without affecting the banking system’s fina... #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #nbu #UkraineBankingSystem
How have Ukrainian bank deposit portfolios and investment returns changed? According to the year’s first half results, as of June the financial institutions with the two largest deposit portfolios were Privatbank (₴490.83B) and Oschadbank (₴201.4B). Also among the lead... #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #InterestRate #nbu #oschadbank #PrivatBank #PUMB #UkrainianBanks #UniversalBank
The National Bank predicts a slowdown in inflation next year. The NBU will allow exchange rate fluctuations that will make it possible to maintain control over inflation expectations and achieve the 5% inflation target, said National Bank Chairman Andriy Pyshnyi... #AndriiPyshnyi #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
Banks have issued ₴4B in loans to restore Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, but medium-sized businesses refuse to construct generation capacity and are preparing for downtime. Since the beginning of June, banks have received 1,356 loan applications for energy infrastructure restoration projects totaling ₴40.1B. The NBU confirmed the approval of applications totaling ₴3.97B ... #AndriiPyshnyi #DTEK #EnergyDecentralization #EnergyRestore #LoansforBusiness #nbu #UkraineEnergy
Ukrainians’ interest in hryvnia assets is weakening. In June, for the first time in a long time, there was a reduction in the volume and share of hryvnia time deposits in the banking system despite maintaining positive rates in real terms. The Committee... #financeUkraine #HryvniaAssets #HryvniaDeposits #nbu #OVDP #UkraineBond
In July, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 1.8%, but a grant from the US raised August’s total to $40B. As of August 1, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $37.2B. In July, they decreased by 1.8%, the National Bank reported. Last month, the dynamics of international reserves were determin... #financeUkraine #GrantForUkraine #imf #internationalReserves #nbu #UkraineBudget2024
The ratio of mortgage loans to GDP in Ukraine is at most 1%: What is happening in this market? The National Bank reported that the ratio of mortgage loans to GDP in Ukraine is 1%, the lowest indicator in Europe. Obstacles to mortgage growth are the uncertain prospects in the real estate market ... #AffordableLoans #AffordableMortgages #eOselya #MortgagesUkraine #nbu
The necessary conditions for further discount rate reductions in Ukraine are no longer present. Thanks to favorable macro-financial trends, the National Bank of Ukraine has reduced the discount rate from 25% to 13% in one year. However, the NBU does not currently see further prerequisites for lo... #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #InterestRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
What threats does the reduction of international financial aid to $21.1B in 2026 pose to Ukraine? The NBU’s basic scenario envisages the preservation of significant volumes of external financing for Ukraine, which, however, will slowly decrease as Ukraine’s ability to fund its budget e... #financialaidforUkraine #LoanForUkraine #nbu #RussianAssetsProfits #SupportUkraine #UkraineBudget
The US and its partners continue to support the reconstruction of the Ukrainian energy industry as winter looms; the import of electricity will cost Ukraine more than $1B. US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink said that USAID purchased 18 autotransformers for the Ukrainian power grid. The US is also supporting Ukraine’s intention to resume the construction of add... #BridgetBrink #ElectricityImport #EnergyRestore #MykolaKolisnyk #nbu #UkraineEnergy #USAID
The NBU: Profitable Ukrainian companies do not use bank loans. Bank loans are not utilized by operationally profitable companies, which account for about 66% of their total operating profits, NBU data shows. In 2023, 8.6% of companies that borrowed money from Ukr... #BankLoans #LoansforBusiness #nbu #UkraineCompaniesProfit #ukrainianbusiness
After currency liberalization in May, companies’ demand for currency increased to $322M. Forbes has calculated that the additional demand for currency following the introduction of a large currency liberalization program in May amounted to $322.6M. During the liberalization’s introd... #CurrencyLiberalization #CurrencyRestrictions #financeUkraine #nbu #ukrainianbusiness
NBU: Banks will continue lowering deposit rates. Almost all banks expect a further decrease in deposit rates for households and corporations over the next 12 months, according to the results from an NBU survey. In the third quarter, banks expect an ... #BankDepositsinUkraine #Depositrates #financeUkraine #nbu
The NBU: Demand for bank loans is growing in Ukraine. Banks expect an increase in demand for all types of corporate and retail loans and loan portfolio volumes, NBU data shows. Most banks will increase their corporate and retail portfolios, though their ... #BankLoans #CreditPortfolio #financeUkraine #LoansforBusiness #nbu
The NBU leaves the key policy rate unchanged due to accelerated inflation. Ukraine halted a run of three interest-rate cuts after an acceleration in inflation prompted policymakers to signal that easing will only be possible to resume next year, reported Bloomberg. The Natio... #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
The NBU updated its forecast for key indicators in the Ukrainian economy. The NBU predicts the growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2024 at 3.7% (April’s forecast was 3%). Economic growth in the year’s first half continued, although it has slowed down in recent mont... #foreignexchangemarket #GDPinUkraine #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
The NBU has simplified access of foreign investors to instruments for rebuilding Ukraine. The National Bank of Ukraine has adopted a decision that will allow foreign investors to get direct access to marketable debt instruments aimed at Ukraine’s recovery. Starting on July 24, the li... #ForeignInvestor #InvestmentsinUkraine #nbu #UkraineRecovery #UkraineSecurities
Banks invested 25% of assets in OVDP, so the NBU sees no need for further stimulation. The National Bank believes there is no need to stimulate banks to increase investments in domestic government bonds (OVDP). In January 2023, banks introduced the possibility of covering mandatory rese... #financeUkraine #nbu #OVDP #UkraineBond #UkrainianBanks
The NBU insists on further narrowing the state’s 5-7-9% preferential lending program. The Affordable Loans 5-7-9% state program, despite recent changes that narrowed the financing limit of working capital to ₴5M, is still not sufficiently focused on helping businesses that need it, com... #5-7-9loanprogram #AffordableLoans #financeUkraine #LoansforBusiness #nbu
War risk insurance will initially focus on retail products. According to NBU department director Pervin Dadashova, the NBU is finalizing work on a draft law that will establish a full-fledged military insurance system, which, for the first time, will focus on ... #InsuranceUkraine #nbu #WarRiskInsurance #WarRisks
Deposit yields in Ukraine continue to fall, but loan rates are also falling. In June, the average interest rates on new hryvnia consumer deposits amounted to 10.8% per annum, 0.2 percentage points lower than a month ago, according to the National Bank. Interest rates on new de... #BankLoans #Depositrates #financeUkraine #ForeignCurrencyDeposits #HryvniaDeposits #nbu #UkraineDeposits
