Ukraine’s real GDP growth in the first quarter fails to exceed 1%.

Ukraine’s nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2025 was ₴1.9T, according to the State Statistics Service. Meanwhile, real GDP growth by the first quarter of 2024 reached 0.9%. At the same time, financial company ICU has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025.

“Economic growth will stay slow, as resources for recovery – both labor and capital – will be limited. The moderate recovery will be driven by domestic private consumption due to rising incomes among private sector employees. However, reductions in public spending will remain a major obstacle to GDP growth. For 2025, we have decreased our economic growth forecast to 2.5% because of a worse-than-expected harvest”, the review notes.

The report also highlights that the key challenge for the government now is securing $10-15B in additional aid that partners have already pledged for 2026. However, analysts pointed out that inflation sharply reversed in June, and price growth is expected to steadily slow in the coming months.