Ukraine’s GDP could drop by 22% if it suffers a military defeat and fails to join the EU.

An unprofitable truce for Ukraine would mean becoming dependent on Russia, which would ruin hopes for major reconstruction, a strong economic future, and full national sovereignty. Experts from the Polish Economic Institute warn that Ukraine might also lose access to the Black Sea, its main export route.

Analysts developed three scenarios for Ukraine’s development after joining the EU, with GDP growth ranging from 2% to 26%.

A separate model explored a fourth scenario where Ukraine does not join the EU, which showed significant losses for the country and the region. If Ukraine stays outside the EU, and if a military defeat leads to a drop in production and worsens the migration crisis, this could result in a GDP decline of over 22%.

The modeling also suggests that Central European countries’ GDP could decrease by around 0.1%. However, the actual losses for the region would likely be greater, as regional security would weaken, affecting the placement of foreign investment in neighboring areas.