Ukraine will lose $113B of GDP over ten years from the loss of refugees who do not return.
It could also mean a loss of about $45B in tax revenue, according to a study by the Center for Economic Recovery and EasyBusiness. It is noted that about 2.1 million displaced people are members of the workforce. Their return is important to ensure rapid and sustainable economic growth: to grow at a rate of 7% per year, by 2032 Ukraine will need to attract 3.1 to 4.5 million additional people to the workforce.
However, over time the desire of migrants to return decreases due to their integration into their receiving countries. While 7-10% of displaced people have already decided to stay abroad, the majority are currently inclined to return. However, more and more migrants are finding work: from August 2022 to January 2023 alone, 17% of displaced people found employment or started taking professional courses.
“According to the results of various surveys, the availability of well-paid work and a relatively higher standard of living in Ukraine will contribute to the return of our compatriots,” the researchers say.