The Ukrainian economy will reach its pre-war level in 10 years.

The Finance Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament believes that, considering current economic growth trends, Ukraine’s real GDP in 2025 will be 20% lower than in 2021, excluding temporarily occupied territories or areas where hostilities are ongoing. Therefore, achieving the pre-war GDP level in real terms will not likely occur before 2034. Security risks have historically been and will continue to be the primary constraint on economic development.

According to the Ministry of Economy, February 2025’s real GDP growth was 0.7% and during the first two months of 2025 growth was 1.1%, compared to the same period last year. The Ukrainian economy has been experiencing a slowdown since the second quarter of 2024 due to the war, including infrastructure shelling, electricity shortages, labor market structural issues, and other negative factors. These challenges have been exacerbated by a decline in the export of goods to $6.3B since the start of 2025, representing a 7.4% decrease compared to January-February 2024.

Real GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 2.7%, following expected growth of 3.6% in 2024.