The Ukrainian economy may decline by at least 10% this year.

The International Monetary Fund says Ukraine needs about $4.8B in external financing this year, and the country’s GDP will shrink by 10% if the war ends soon. However, the IMF said the economic contraction could be much deeper, in the range of 25 to 35 percent, based on real-time GDP declines in countries such as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Meanwhile, the fund’s estimates of Ukraine’s financing needs should be seen as an absolute minimum and as a bridge to the point where a post-war comprehensive assessment will determine the real financing needs, which are likely to be much higher. In addition, the IMF is creating a trust fund that allows states to channel resources to Ukraine, IMF officials said at a briefing on Monday.