The NBU expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 2.9% this year and notes the positive impact of military aid to Ukraine on the economy of Western countries.

As noted in the July National Bank Inflation Report, economic growth will accelerate in the coming years, considering the National Bank’s assumption that security risks will decrease in mid-2024. The NBU forecasts real GDP growth in 2024 of 3.5% and in 2025 of 6.8%.

According to the forecast, consumer inflation will slow to 10.6% in 2023, and core inflation will be below 9%. In 2024, consumer inflation will decrease to 8.5%, and core inflation will drop to 7%. In 2025, it will be 5% ± 1%, and the base rate will be 3%.

The regulator also claims that the increase in military spending due to the war in Ukraine has had a stimulating effect on the GDP of partner countries. Every $1 spent generates $0.79-$0.87 of GDP within one or two years, and the positive effect continues even after five years.