The National Bank has worsened its 2025 key macro indicator forecasts.

Considering security risks and the difficult situation in the labor market, the NBU has worsened its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 GDP growth from 4.3% to 3.6%. At the same time, the bank predicts the economy’s gradual return to normal operating conditions. Accordingly, in 2026-2027 a moderate acceleration of economic growth is expected – to about 4%. The recovery will be facilitated by investment in energy and production capacities, maintaining a soft fiscal policy, and growing private consumption against increasing household incomes.

The inflation forecast has worsened from 6.9% to 8.4% by the end of the year. However, it is expected to return to the target of 5% in 2026. This will be facilitated by the NBU’s interest rate and exchange rate policy measures, higher yields, an improvement in the energy sector, a decrease in the fiscal deficit, and moderate external price pressure.

In 2025, Ukraine will receive $38.4B in external financing, which should be enough to cover a budget deficit of 19% of the country’s GDP.