The European Commission has revised its economic forecast for Ukraine, lowering its GDP growth prediction for 2025 from 2.8% in November to 2%.

This adjustment is attributed to ongoing war pressures that severely impact production capacity and business confidence. For 2026, the GDP growth forecast has been decreased from 5.9% to 4.7%. A decline in exports is expected, driven by decreasing industrial output, especially in energy-intensive sectors facing high energy costs, compounded by the closure of Pokrovskvuhillya, a vital steel industry supplier.

Additionally, agricultural exports are projected to drop due to diminished stocks resulting from a poor 2024 harvest attributed to adverse weather.

Conversely, a strong demand for energy, coal, and materials for defense and reconstruction is anticipated to keep imports high, negatively affecting net exports’ contribution to GDP growth. As a result, exports are expected to rise by only 1.8% in 2025, while in 2026 they will increase by 11.4%, accompanied by import growth rates of 5.5% and 6%, respectively.