The EBRD downgrades Ukraine’s economic growth forecast for 2025, calls for 5% growth in 2026.

The EBRD has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2025 to 3.5%. Last September, the bank forecasted growth of 4.7%. It is noted that Ukraine started 2025 with weak economic indicators and rising inflation. The bank revised its forecast as Russia’s attacks on power infrastructure continue to hamper production.

“Ukraine’s GDP growth will reach 3.5% in 2025, and then accelerate to 5% in 2026, provided that there is a ceasefire by the end of 2025,” the bank stated.

According to the EBRD, the rise in inflation observed in the second half of 2024 resulted from rising electricity prices, utility price corrections, rapid growth in real wages, and the currency’s depreciation against the US dollar. It is expected that the mentioned negative factors will persist this year.

However, economic growth will be supported by Ukrainian enterprises’ resilience and adaptability, a well-functioning Black Sea trade corridor, strong stimulation of public consumption, and an increase in military purchases from domestic enterprises.