Investors have shared their 2025 macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine. The growth rate of Ukraine’s economy in 2025 will decrease to 3.4% compared to the expected result of 4% in 2024. At the same time, inflation will slow from 11.5% to 7%. ICU predicts that Ukrain... #GDPinUkraine #InflationinUkraine #LaborMarketUkraine #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
Fitch has maintained Ukraine’s rating at RD – Restricted Default. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency rating at restricted default (RD) as Ukraine continues to restructure its external debt. “Ukraine’s foreign currency i... #DefaultUkraine #FitchRatings #UkraineBudget2025 #UkraineBudgetDeficit #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomicForecast
Even under a baseline scenario, Ukraine’s public debt will exceed 100% of GDP. Ukraine’s public debt is already approaching 100% of GDP, and financing needs for recovery are currently around $600B. Even under the baseline scenario, the peak value of public debt is 103.9% of GDP,... #GDPinUkraine #UkraineBudget #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
The Biden administration plans to cancel over $4.6B of Ukraine’s debt. US President Joe Biden submitted a statement to the US Congress stating his intention to forgive half of Ukraine’s debt for economic assistance that was received as a loan. State Department spok... #JoeBiden #LoanForUkraine #MatthewMiller #ukrainedebt #UScongress
The IMF encourages Ukraine to make profound tax changes but not to raise rates. IMF experts unveiled their proposals for reducing Ukraine’s national debt as part of their recommendations. The IMF’s Deputy Director of the Fiscal Affairs department, , noted that their r... #EraDablaNorris #imf #TaxesUkraine #TaxIncrease #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine will hold auctions to exchange OVDP bonds. The Cabinet of Ministers, as part of the implementation of the Medium-Term Strategy for State Debt Management for 2024-2026, approved a resolution that allows the MoF to carry out bond-swap operations... #financeUkraine #OVDP #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
After Ukraine’s successful debt restructuring, the Fitch agency raised the country’s hryvnia rating. The rating agency Fitch Ratings, after the completion of Eurobond debt restructuring, raised the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of Ukraine in local currency to CCC+ from CCC- and confirmed the ... #CreditRatingUkraine #DefaultUkraine #Eurobond #FitchRatings #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine completed its $20.5B Eurobond restructuring, reducing the national debt by $9B. The restructuring process included the exchange of 13 series of government Eurobonds and one series of state-guaranteed Ukravtodor Eurobonds worth about $20.5B, approximately $24B including capitalize... #DebtRestructuring #Eurobond #UkraineBudget #ukrainedebt #ukravtodor
Ukraine has doubled its national debt, and here is what will happen next. During the 2.5 years of the full-scale war, Ukraine’s public debt has increased by 130% in hryvnia equivalent (+₴3.644B), and in foreign currency by 66% (+$62B). “Despite everything, the d... #DanyloHetmantsev #DebtRestructuring #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt
Ukraine has stopped servicing GDP warrants and some other external obligations. The Cabinet of Ministers adopted a resolution suspending the servicing of Ukraine’s obligations to several creditors under loans and Eurobonds and obligations under GDP warrants. In particular, ... #ukrainedebt #UKraineGDPwarrants #UkraineStopedServicingDebt
The parliament comments on the lowering of Ukraine’s credit rating to RD. Early this week, the Fitch rating agency downgraded Ukraine’s long-term credit rating from level C to RD. The $750M 2026 Eurobonds, on which Ukraine failed to make the August 1 coupon payment, w... #CreditRatingUkraine #DanyloHetmantsev #DebtRestructuring #Eurobond #ukrainedebt #ukravtodor
Fitch Ratings lowers Ukraine’s credit rating to limited default. In particular, the issuer’s long-term foreign currency default rating was downgraded from C to RD (restricted default), Fitch Ratings said in a statement. This rating level means that the issuer... #Creditors #DebtRestructuring #DefaultUkraine #eurobonds #FitchRatings #ukrainedebt #ukravtodor
Ukraine is increasing its national debt, but its value has decreased by 10.3% since the beginning of the year. As of June 30, the state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine amounted to ₴6.16T ($152.2B), including external debt – ₴4.45T ($109.9B), internal debt – ₴1.71T ($42.2B), the Ministry of Finance s... #Creditors #DebtRestructuring #InternationalAid #UkraineBudget #ukrainedebt
Ukraine has officially started restructuring its external debt. The Ministry of Finance announced on the London Stock Exchange the specifics for exchanging old bonds for new-issue bonds. Ukraine invites holders of each series of sovereign bonds and existing bonds,... #Creditors #Eurobond #LondonStockExchange #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt #UkraineRestructuringDebt
S&P downgrades Ukraine’s credit rating to “selective default” in response to the Eurobond restructuring. The international rating agency S&P Global lowered Ukraine’s long-term and short-term credit ratings in foreign currency to the level of selective default – from CC/C to SD/SD – due to the m... #ConcordeCapital #CreditRatingUkraine #DebtRestructuring #DefaultUkraine #StandartandPoor #ukrainedebt
Despite market fears, Ukraine has paid $200M to GDP warrant holders. Ukraine has paid about $200M to holders of its GDP warrants, securities that weren’t part of a recent $20B Eurobond restructuring agreement with private creditors. The warrants have disbursements link... #DebtRestructuring #EurobondsPayments #GDPwarrants #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
The Cabinet of Ministers introduces a payment moratorium for Ukraine’s Eurobonds. The Cabinet of Ministers exercised the right granted to it by the Ukrainian Parliament and introduced a temporary moratorium on Ukraine’s Eurobond payments. “In connection with the impleme... #debtpayments #DebtRestructuring #Eurobond #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt #ukravtodor
Fitch downgraded Ukraine’s rating to pre-default level after its debt restructuring deal. Fitch Ratings downgraded Ukraine’s long-term issuer default rating (IDR) in foreign currency from CC to C. “Ukraine’s downgrade reflects Fitch’s view that the agreement in prin... #DebtRestructuring #DefaultUkraine #FitchRatings #imf #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine agreed to a debt restructuring with its Eurobond holders. As Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported, Ukraine has reached fundamental agreements with a committee of Eurobond owners. This is a crucial stage in Ukraine’s debt restructuring, saving $11.4B i... #DebtRestructuring #DenysShmyhal #Eurobond #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
Ukraine is trying for the second time to restructure more than $20B in Eurobonds. A group of Ukrainian bondholders has signed non-disclosure agreements to begin a second round of formal talks with the Ukrainian government to restructure more than $20B in debt. Negotiations started ... #DebtRestructuring #Eurobond #imf #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
In August, Ukraine is scheduled to pay $210M to the owners of GDP warrants, but the Ministry of Finance is delaying the decision. Ukrainian Eurobonds holders are still determining the fate of their GDP warrants, the total nominal value of which is $3.2B. On August 1, in addition to the payment for Eurobonds maturing in 2026, Ukr... #Creditors #DebtRestructuring #Eurobond #ForeignInvestor #GDPwarrants #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
Owners of Ukrainian GDP warrants are rallying for negotiations on restructuring. Some holders of Ukrainian GDP warrants are planning to create a group that will represent their interests in restructuring sovereign debt, the data platform on public markets, and REDD companies repor... #Creditors #DebtRestructuring #ForeignInvestor #GDPwarrants #imf #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
Due to debt repayment, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 2.9% to $37.9B. As noted by the National Bank, June’s dynamics were caused by the NBU’s currency interventions to cover the market’s currency deficit and smooth out exchange rate fluctuations and th... #CurrencyMarket #internationalReserves #nbu #ukrainedebt #UkraineDebtRepayment #UkraineFacility #worldbank
Ukraine makes new offers to creditors to reach an agreement on debt restructuring. Ukraine plans to include GDP warrants in a proposal to restructure international bonds worth about $20B. This is a new attempt by Kyiv to establish contact with investors after formal negotiations thu... #Creditors #DebtRestructuring #GDPwarrants #imf #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
Ukraine has a month to avoid default. According to The Economist, Ukraine is facing a looming financial crisis, because the two-year deferral of debt service payments that the country’s creditors agreed to is about to expire. The de... #Creditors #DebtRestructuring #DefaultUkraine #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine seeks a common ground with bondholders and tries to avoid default. As Bloomberg explains, Ukraine is trying to reduce debt payments in wartime, but Kyiv needs to maintain good relations with creditors to restore the economy after the war. The Ukrainian government ins... #Creditors #DebtRestructuring #DefaultUkraine #JPmorgan #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
The CES provides a forecast for key macro indicators through the end of the year. The Ukrainian economy will grow by 3-4% by the end of 2024, which is less than 2023, according to the macro forecast from the Center for Economic Strategy (CES). As experts explain, the pessimism rega... #dollarexchangerate #GDPinUkraine #InflationinUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine’s state budget revenues have been decreasing for four months in a row. In May 2024, the general fund of the state budget received ₴151.8B, which is less than in February, March, and April, the Ministry of Finance notes. According to the results from the five completed mo... #financialaidforUkraine #SupportUkraine #TaxesUkraine #ukrainebonds #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt
The US hopes Ukraine will restructure its debt by autumn. The US hopes that Ukraine will be able to reach an agreement with private creditors on debt restructuring by September 1, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo while in Kyiv. “This is one o... #CompensationForUkraine #DebtRestructuring #imf #IrynaMudra #ukrainedebt #WallyAdeyemo
A Ukrainian investment company revises its economic forecast for Ukraine. Investment group Dragon Capital has improved its inflation forecast in 2024 from 8% to 7.6%. At the same time, the previous estimate of a 4% increase in GDP in 2024 has been maintained thanks to the r... #DragonCapital #GDPinUkraine #InflationinUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine must pay $25.2B to service debt this year. The Ministry of Finance has preliminarily estimated that in 2024 Ukraine will have to pay more than ₴1T ($25.2B) as part of its repayment and servicing of state debt. As of May 1, the total amount of ... #UkraineBond #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineDebtPayment #UkraineEconomy
How big is the national debt, and how much do Ukrainians owe? According to the Ministry of Finance data, the state’s and state-guaranteed debt as of April 1, 2024, amounts to ₴5.9T ($149B). Since 2020, this amount has increased significantly, mostly due to the f... #ebrd #EIB #ExternalDebt #imf #ukrainedebt #UkraineDebtRepayment #UkraineEconomy #worldbank
Ukraine’s economic growth will slow to 3% this year, and the budget deficit will reach 20.7% of GDP. “The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that economic growth will slow to 3% in 2024 due to the loss of energy infrastructure and an expected electricity deficit of about 5%. In 2025-2026, GDP growth w... #BudgetDeficit #GDPinUkraine #InflationinUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine’s Eurobond holders demand payment resumption next year. A group of foreign bondholders, including BlackRock and Pimco, will pressure Ukraine to resume interest payments on its debt as early as next year. The WSJ notes that the owners of outstanding Ukraini... #BlackRock #DebtRestructuring #Eurobond #Pimco #ukrainebonds #ukrainedebt
Ukraine will propose a $20B debt restructuring plan by May. Ukraine has prepared a $20B debt restructuring plan for private bondholders and plans to present it by the beginning of May. It is noted that it is critical for Ukraine to conclude a debt restructurin... #DebtRestructuring #DebtSecurities #financeUkraine #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt #UkraineSecurities
The EC approves the Ukraine Facility plan; Kyiv will receive payments totaling €50B from the fund. The European Commission adopted the Ukrainian Facility, which is the basis for implementing the €50B Ukrainian fund in the EU budget for 2024-2027. Thus, Ukraine will receive regular payments that are... #EuropeanCommission #GDPinUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy #UkraineFacility
World Bank: The Ukrainian economy has reached a turning point. The World Bank offered its assessment in its regional Economic Review, as concerns about the timing and volume of future aid payments to Ukraine are growing. The World Bank predicts that Ukraine’... #GDPinUkraine #InvestmentsinUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy #worldbank
Ukrainian debtholders plan to create a committee of creditors against the background of a possible debt restructuring. According to Bloomberg, large bondholders may intensify negotiations to create such a group after the IMF meeting on April 17. They note that time pressure is increasing as the moratorium on Ukrainian... #DebtRestructuring #ForeignInvestor #IMFmeeting #UkraineBond #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt
Ukraine’s debt to the IMF is recognized as stable and is not subject to restructuring. To the question of whether the IMF can write off Ukraine’s approximately $15B in debt, taking into account an analysis of Ukraine’s debt sustainability, the top manager of the IMF, Julie K... #DebtRestructuring #imf #JulieKozack #ukrainedebt
The IMF plans to discuss Ukraine at the spring meetings with the WB. The top manager of the IMF, Julie Kozack, said: “We will discuss during the spring meetings on April 15 (between the IMF and the World Bank) the situation in Ukraine and the critical importance of the... #DebtRestructuring #imf #JulieKozack #RussianAssets #RussianAssetsConfiscation #ukrainedebt #worldbank
Ukraine’s national debt increased by 54% during the first two years of the war. From February 2022 to February 2024, Ukraine’s state debt increased by $50.4B. To reduce debt pressure on the state budget, Ukraine has worked to attract loans on preferential terms. For example, the ... #DebtRestructuring #imf #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #worldbank
Ukraine will defer payments on its national debt with the US, and the Eurobond restructuring might include a partial debt write-off. Ukraine and the US signed an agreement to postpone public debt payments with a group of Ukraine’s creditors from the G7 countries and the Paris Club. At the same time, the debt sustainability analysis... #DebtRestructuring #GDPinUkraine #imf #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
Following the discount rate decrease, Ukrainian bonds’ yield fell as well. At the first auction, after the NBU decided to lower the discount rate, the Ministry of Finance lowered rates for OVDP by 20-30 basis points. The secondary market also reacted by lowering rates for hr... #financeUkraine #imf #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #OVDPselling #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
Over the year, Ukraine’s gross foreign debt increased by almost 25%. How does this threaten the financial system? Ukraine’s gross foreign debt at the end of 2023 amounted to $161.5B. That is, it increased by almost 25% (+$30.6B). This debt includes the external debt from the government, the central bank, commerci... #DanyloHetmantsev #GDPinUkraine #nbu #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
Last year, Ukraine’s national debt increased by $33.9B, most of which was preferential financing from international partners. As specified by the Ministry of Finance, as of December 31, 2023, Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed amounted to $145.3B, which is comprised of external debt – $101.7B (69.99% of the total amo... #financialaidforUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #UkraineBudgetDeficit #ukrainedebt
Ukraine’s national debt grew 30.4% last year to a new historical high. As of December 31, 2023, the state’s and state-guaranteed debt amounted to ₴5.519T, or $145.32B, reported the Ministry of Finance. The ratio of national debt to GDP was 85%. State and state-guaranteed... #DanyloHetmantsev #financialaidforUkraine #GDPinUkraine #UkraineBudget2024 #ukrainedebt #UkraineEconomy
The Ministry of Finance has postponed the repayment of Ukraine’s foreign debts, which will save up to $15B. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko signed an amendment to the Memorandum of Understanding that postpones state and state-guaranteed debt payments with a group of official creditors from the G7 and Pari... #nbu #SerhiyMarchenko #ukrainedebt #UkraineDebtRepayment
The IMF supports a moratorium on Ukraine’s national debt payment until 2027. To that end, the restructuring will be carried out by the middle of 2024, said the head of the IMF mission in Ukraine, Gavin Gray. “An ambitious external commercial debt restructuring should be ... #DebtRestructuring #GavinGray #imf #UkraineBudget #ukrainedebt
Ukraine will fully settle with the IMF under the 2018 stand-by program. Ukraine will fully repay the IMF under the 2018 stand-by program, which amounts to $166M at the current exchange rate, said Economist Oleksiy Blinov. According to him, the payment will be provided fro... #imf #nbu #OleksiyBlinov #ukrainedebt #UkraineLoans
How much debt should Ukraine pay off by 2049? Over the next 25 years, Ukraine must pay off more than ₴7T in external and internal debt (in the equivalent). It is worth noting that the Ministry of Finance’s current plans will most likely be adjust... #UkraineBudget #ukrainedebt #ukraineexternaldebt #UkraineInternalDebt
