The hryvnia’s fate: Experts provide their forecasts. Bankers, households, and financial analysts expect the dollar to the hryvnia exchange rate to rise over the next 12 months. Banks predict that the exchange rate will be ₴44.92 per $1, which is higher ... #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #hryvniaexchangerate #HryvniaRating #nbu
Ukrainian OVDP increased by 12% in a month amid expectations that Trump will soon stop Russia’s war against Ukraine. Over the past month, Ukrainian sovereign bonds denominated in dollars have risen in price by 12%. Investors expect that the re-election of Donald Trump will lead to a ceasefire, and Ukraine will be ab... #DonaldTrump #financeUkraine #OVDP #ukrainebonds #UkraineSecurities
Lending to businesses and households in Ukraine has been growing for a year and a half; rates have been reduced for both loans and deposits. According to the NBU, in the third quarter of 2024 loan portfolio volume increased by 22.4%. Hryvnia business loans grew by 6.9%, and individual loans increased by 9.7%. Loans in wholesale trade and t... #BankDeposits #eOselya #financeUkraine #LendingProgram #nbu
In 2024, banks in Ukraine earned ₴118B thanks to lending and bonds. From January to September, solvent Ukrainian banks earned ₴118B ($2.8B) in net profit. The NBU explained that the primary income sources were the increase in lending volumes and investment in governme... #BankDeposits #BankLoans #financeUkraine #OVDP #UkraineBanksProfits #UkrainianBanks
In October, the Ministry of Finance raised a record ₴107B from the issuance of government bonds. Last month ₴106.9B was obtained from OVDP sales, equivalent to ₴83.4B and $569M. At the same time, military bonds accounted for almost ₴82.8B of the total volume of government bonds issued last month.... #financeUkraine #GovernmentBonds #MilitaryBond #OVDP #OVDPselling #UkraineBond
Bankers do not expect a change in the key policy rate by the end of the year, but there are risks. Ukrainian bankers believe that the Board of the NBU will leave the discount rate at the current level of 13% per annum at a meeting on Thursday. “However, a return to tightening monetary policy ... #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #OTPbank #PravexBank #RaiffeisenBank #UkrainianBanks
The yield on deposits will continue to decline, but commercial lending conditions have softened for the first time since 2021. Ukrainian banks expect a further reduction in deposit rates for both individuals and businesses. A survey on lending conditions showed that in the third quarter, the largest share of respondents since... #BankDeposits #BankLoans #ConsumerLending #financeUkraine #UkrainianBanks
Nova Poshta records high demand for its bonds from institutional investors. Nova Poshta from the Nova Group, a leading logistics operator in Ukraine, notes a significant demand for its bonds from a wide range of institutional investors, the group’s financial director Pe... #financeUkraine #investments #NovaGroup #NovaPoshtaBonds #PetroFokov #ukrainebonds
Ukrainians have bought the equivalent of 33% of Ukraine’s international aid for their savings. The purchase of foreign currency by the Ukrainian population has increased by 250% compared to the previous year. In the last 12 months, the population bought foreign currency worth $10.6B, including ... #BohdanDanylyshyn #CurrencyLiberalization #CurrencyMarket #CurrencySale #financeUkraine #nbu
Since the beginning of the year, Ukrainians have increased hryvnia deposits by more than ₴54B. As of October 1, the total amount held in individual deposits (including individual entrepreneurs) in Ukrainian banks amounted to ₴1.3257T. Over the month, it increased by ₴24.7B ($625M), according to... #BankDeposits #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #UkrainianBanks
Ukrainians are increasingly buying foreign currency. The NBU had to increase interventions to a three-month high. According to ICU analysts, demand for foreign currency among Ukrainians remains at a very high level and is forcing the NBU to sell large volumes of it from its international reserves to maintain the ... #currencyexchange #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #nbu
During the war, Ukrainians have significantly increased their investments in military bonds, to $1.7B. Individual investments increased to ₴71.2B ($1.7B) at the beginning of October, against ₴25.5B ($622M) in February 2022. Individual investors currently represent more than 4% of the total portfolio o... #BondsUkraine #financeUkraine #ForeignInvestor #investments #OVDP
The MoF raises a record ₴30B from the sale of government bonds, and the NBU expands the list of required benchmark domestic government debt securities. On October 8, the Ministry of Finance placed bonds of the domestic state loan (OVDP) for a total amount of ₴30.26B ($750M). This is more than for the month of August (₴29.1B) and is the largest figure... #BondsUkraine #financeUkraine #nbu #OVDP #UkraineSecurities
In September, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 8.1% to $38.9B. As noted by the National Bank, this dynamic results from the NBU’s currency interventions to cover the structural currency deficit on the market and smooth out exchange rate fluctuations, as wel... #Creditors #financeUkraine #internationalReserves #nbu #OVDP #UkraineDebtRepayment #worldbank
What are the NBU’s plans regarding the key policy rate? Almost all (10 out of 11) of the NBU’s Monetary Policy Committee members support keeping the discount rate at 13%. The NBU notes that the majority believes that the current rate level provides n... #AndriiPyshnyi #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
The state program of preferential business lending positively affects the economy but needs improvement. As of January 1, 2024, the state’s debt to banks under the 5-7-9% Available Loans program amounted to ₴7.1B, and barring changes, by the end of 2024 this figure may reach ₴11.5B, according to th... #5-7-9loanprogram #AffordableLoans #BankLoans #financeUkraine #LoansforBusiness #UkraineEconomy
Ukrainians are increasing their debt – lending increased by 5.3%. In the second quarter, financial services companies and pawnshops showed an increase in the volume of basic types of services, even against a total reduction of assets by 12.3%. Credit unions and life... #BankLoans #financeUkraine #MicroCrediting #nbu #PawnShops #UkrainiansDebt
Ukraine will restructure government derivatives tied to GDP growth rates. Yuriy Butsa, the government commissioner for public debt management, notes that Ukraine issued GDP warrants in 2015. According to the terms, any GDP growth above 3% per year triggers payments to warra... #Creditors #financeUkraine #GDPinUkraine #GDPwarrants #UkraineBond #UkraineEconomy
The National Bank of Ukraine kept the key policy rate unchanged at 13%. This decision will contribute to the gradual return of inflation to the 5% target in the following years and support the foreign exchange market’s stability, the NBU reported. It is also aimed a... #financeUkraine #foreignexchangemarket #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine will hold auctions to exchange OVDP bonds. The Cabinet of Ministers, as part of the implementation of the Medium-Term Strategy for State Debt Management for 2024-2026, approved a resolution that allows the MoF to carry out bond-swap operations... #financeUkraine #OVDP #UkraineBond #ukrainedebt
The yield on deposits in Ukraine is falling, and loans are becoming cheaper. The average bank interest rates on new hryvnia consumer deposits in August amounted to 10.6% per annum, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than a month ago, NBU data shows. Interest rates on new cons... #BankDeposits #BankLoans #financeUkraine #nbu #UkrainianBanking
Ukrainian banks increased their profits by 22%, with one of them accounting for 40% of the total amount. The total profit generated by Ukrainian banks for the first seven months of the year is ₴119.44B, which is 22% more than in the same period last year. Along with earnings, income tax increased by 80% ... #financeUkraine #MTBbank #PrivatBank #UkraineBanksProfits #UkraineEconomy #UkrainianBanks
Maintaining the discount rate level is necessary to develop lending and deposit programs. In autumn, against the background of increasing inflation, it will be essential to maintain the discount rate at 13% and the rate for 3-month deposit certificates at 16%, according to finance experts.... #DepositsInterestRate #financeUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #UkraineBankingSector #UkraineEconomy
Ukrainians are increasing their investment in government bonds: The share is already 4%. In August 2024, the Ministry of Finance raised ₴29.1B from the issuance of government bonds. Military bonds accounted for ₴6B of the total volume of government bonds issued in August. As of September ... #financeUkraine #investments #nbu #OVDP #UkraineBond
The IMF pushes Ukraine to raise taxes and depreciate the hryvnia, with $1.1B in new financial aid at stake. Ukrainian officials expect the IMF this week to push the country toward faster currency devaluation, lower interest rates, and to increase tax collection efforts to close the country’s budget de... #BudgetDeficit #financeUkraine #hryvniadevaluation #imf #nbu #UkraineBudget
Financial analysts and businesses predict what will happen to prices and the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine. Inflation in Ukraine will accelerate over the next 12 months but will not exceed 9%. Such is the forecast given by bankers, financial analysts, and heads of enterprises. In July, financial analysts pr... #dollarexchangerate #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #UkraineEconomicForecast #UkraineEconomy
Ukrainians are building up hryvnia savings in bank accounts. In July, the amount of funds in household hryvnia accounts temporarily decreased, but at the beginning of August, they recovered and continued to grow without affecting the banking system’s fina... #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #nbu #UkraineBankingSystem
How have Ukrainian bank deposit portfolios and investment returns changed? According to the year’s first half results, as of June the financial institutions with the two largest deposit portfolios were Privatbank (₴490.83B) and Oschadbank (₴201.4B). Also among the lead... #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #InterestRate #nbu #oschadbank #PrivatBank #PUMB #UkrainianBanks #UniversalBank
Ukrainians’ interest in hryvnia assets is weakening. In June, for the first time in a long time, there was a reduction in the volume and share of hryvnia time deposits in the banking system despite maintaining positive rates in real terms. The Committee... #financeUkraine #HryvniaAssets #HryvniaDeposits #nbu #OVDP #UkraineBond
In July, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 1.8%, but a grant from the US raised August’s total to $40B. As of August 1, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $37.2B. In July, they decreased by 1.8%, the National Bank reported. Last month, the dynamics of international reserves were determin... #financeUkraine #GrantForUkraine #imf #internationalReserves #nbu #UkraineBudget2024
The necessary conditions for further discount rate reductions in Ukraine are no longer present. Thanks to favorable macro-financial trends, the National Bank of Ukraine has reduced the discount rate from 25% to 13% in one year. However, the NBU does not currently see further prerequisites for lo... #CurrencyMarket #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #InterestRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
After currency liberalization in May, companies’ demand for currency increased to $322M. Forbes has calculated that the additional demand for currency following the introduction of a large currency liberalization program in May amounted to $322.6M. During the liberalization’s introd... #CurrencyLiberalization #CurrencyRestrictions #financeUkraine #nbu #ukrainianbusiness
NBU: Banks will continue lowering deposit rates. Almost all banks expect a further decrease in deposit rates for households and corporations over the next 12 months, according to the results from an NBU survey. In the third quarter, banks expect an ... #BankDepositsinUkraine #Depositrates #financeUkraine #nbu
The NBU: Demand for bank loans is growing in Ukraine. Banks expect an increase in demand for all types of corporate and retail loans and loan portfolio volumes, NBU data shows. Most banks will increase their corporate and retail portfolios, though their ... #BankLoans #CreditPortfolio #financeUkraine #LoansforBusiness #nbu
Capital markets in Ukraine show slow growth and development. Despite all the challenges brought about by the war, and contrary to forecasts, capital markets in Ukraine not only avoided collapse but also persisted in demonstrating slow growth and development. Al... #CapitalMarket #CapitalMarketUkraine #financeUkraine #investments #UkraineBond
The NBU leaves the key policy rate unchanged due to accelerated inflation. Ukraine halted a run of three interest-rate cuts after an acceleration in inflation prompted policymakers to signal that easing will only be possible to resume next year, reported Bloomberg. The Natio... #financeUkraine #InflationinUkraine #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineEconomy
Ukrainians continue to deposit more money into their savings; in the first half of the year, deposits increased by ₴60.2B. According to the Deposit Guarantee Fund for Individuals, as of July 1, 2024, the total amount of deposits of individuals and entrepreneurs in Ukrainian banks reached ₴1,295T, which is ₴28.9B more than... #BankDepositsinUkraine #DepositGuaranteeFund #financeUkraine #UkrainianBanks
Banks invested 25% of assets in OVDP, so the NBU sees no need for further stimulation. The National Bank believes there is no need to stimulate banks to increase investments in domestic government bonds (OVDP). In January 2023, banks introduced the possibility of covering mandatory rese... #financeUkraine #nbu #OVDP #UkraineBond #UkrainianBanks
The NBU insists on further narrowing the state’s 5-7-9% preferential lending program. The Affordable Loans 5-7-9% state program, despite recent changes that narrowed the financing limit of working capital to ₴5M, is still not sufficiently focused on helping businesses that need it, com... #5-7-9loanprogram #AffordableLoans #financeUkraine #LoansforBusiness #nbu
Deposit yields in Ukraine continue to fall, but loan rates are also falling. In June, the average interest rates on new hryvnia consumer deposits amounted to 10.8% per annum, 0.2 percentage points lower than a month ago, according to the National Bank. Interest rates on new de... #BankLoans #Depositrates #financeUkraine #ForeignCurrencyDeposits #HryvniaDeposits #nbu #UkraineDeposits
In June, the Ministry of Finance attracted more funds from OVDP auctions than it paid out to investors. In June, the Ministry of Finance raised ₴38.41B and $407.33M from the issuance of domestic government bonds. ₴35.3B of the total volume of OVDP issued in June were military bonds. The refinancing perc... #financeUkraine #investments #MiiltaryBonds #nbu #UkraineBond
At the IMF’s request, Ukraine will work on creating a postal bank. Ukraine’s memorandum with the IMF says that the Ukrainian authorities plan to create a specialized bank to ensure access to financial services for residents in remote settlements, de-occupied te... #financeUkraine #financialservices #IhorSmilyansky #imf #nbu #PostalBank #Ukrposhta
The largest Ukrainian state bank predicts interest rate decreases on loans and deposits. As PrivatBank noted, these dynamics will be determined by the reduction of the NBU’s discount rate. A member of the NBU board, Yevhen Zaigraev, noted that the situation with client funds reflect... #Depositrates #financeUkraine #InterestRate #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #PrivatBank
Ukrainians are increasing their bank account deposits, leading to a ₴31.3B increase in five months. Since the beginning of 2024, the increase in consumer deposits amounts to ₴31.3B, the Deposit Guarantee Fund reported. In particular, it is clarified that as of June 1 the total amount of deposits bel... #BankDepositsinUkraine #financeUkraine #HryvniaDeposits #UkrainianBanks
Ukrainian bankers predict a further key policy rate decrease to 12%. Seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank have reported the potential to cut the key rate to 12-12.5% by the end of the year, given that the risks to the inflation forecast... #financeUkraine #InterestRate #KeyPolicyRate #nbu #UkraineBankingSystem #UkraineEconomy
Ukraine’s banking regulator names the key risks to financial stability in the banking market. Banks in Ukraine have maintained financial stability and their clients’ trust while increasing lending and their participation in financing the budget deficit, the NBU reported. The regulator states t... #ConsumerLending #financeUkraine #LoansforBusiness #nbu #UkraineBankingSystem #UkraineEconomy
Bankers predict an interest rate decrease for business loans in Ukraine. Following the NBU’s reduction of the discount rate to 13% and the introduction of its lending strategy, banks will be able to significantly reduce interest rates on loans for enterprises in strategic ... #CreditPortfolio #financeUkraine #GlobusBank #InterestRate #LoansforBusiness #URC2024
Ukrainian eurobonds drop in value following creditors’ refusal to write part of the debt off. The value of Ukrainian Eurobonds fell during trading on June 17, showing one of the worst performances for emerging markets. The country’s eurobonds weakened across the curve, with bonds maturin... #DebtRestructuring #Eurobond #financeUkraine #SerhiyMarchenko #UkraineBond #UkraineBudget
These are the main trends in Ukraine’s bank deposits. According to financiers, the decreasing yields on hryvnia deposits will continue until the end of May. However, despite this, hryvnia deposits remain attractive to citizens due to their passive income... #financeUkraine #ForeignCurrencyDeposits #HryvniaDeposits #nbu
Ukraine’s bond market: Investors focus on longer maturities. Last week, investors’ interest in UAH bonds with longer maturities sharply increased as they tried to lock in current YTMs for longer. Taking advantage of the high demand, the Ministry of Financ... #BondMarketUkraine #BondSalesUkraine #financeUkraine #investments #UkraineBond #UkraineMonetaryPolicy
