Russia could end the year with a record surplus of $240B from energy exports.

Due to record oil and gas prices, the main products of Russian exports, even with reduced energy sales, the aggressor state will receive about $321B in revenue. This is more than a third more than in 2021. This will lead to a current record account surplus, which, according to the Institute of International Finance, could reach $240B. However, the calculus may change entirely in the event of an embargo on energy sales. And even without it, Russia’s oil exports and output are already falling, with the International Energy Agency predicting it may lose nearly a quarter of its crude production this month. Oil and gas account for about half of Russia’s exports and about 40% of last year’s budget revenues. And Russia’s ability to sell them may be the only thing keeping the economy from getting worse. The IIF estimates that the energy embargo by the EU, Britain, and the US will cut supplies by more than 20% and cost Russia up to $300B in export earnings.