Economists forecaste Ukraine’s GDP growth, inflation, and international aid.

Analysts from the Institute of Economic Research projected that, despite the devastating impact of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine’s economy is showing resilience. The forecasted GDP growth in 2025 is 2.9%, in 2026 – 3.2%. But real GDP remains 17.4% below the pre-war level.

The main forecast indicators for the years of 2025 and 2026 are as following:

1. Inflation – 12.5% ​​(2025), 6.5% (2026)
2. State debt – 89% of GDP, 85% of GDP
3. State budget financing needs, considering domestic debt – $52.5B, $55.2B
4. Budget deficit – 20% of GDP, 19% of GDP
5. This year, Ukraine will receive $48B in grants and loans, and in 2026 – $36B. These amounts should not be affected by the suspension of US support.

The forecast is based on the fact that Ukraine’s international partners will continue to fulfill their obligations regarding financial and military support. Trump’s recent statements about the complete suspension of US aid mean that one of the risks for the Ukrainian economy has materialized. However, despite the growing uncertainty, the forecast remains relevant.