Businesses in Ukraine have downgraded their expectations for business activity.

In December 2023, for the third month in a row, Ukrainian businesses have provided their restrained estimates of their current activity’s results. The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) was 45.7 against 49.1 in November.

According to the NBU, after nine months of positive expectations, trade enterprises have worsened their business activity estimates due to uncertainty about the duration of the hostilities, risks that international aid will arrive irregularly and in insufficient amounts, rising logistics costs due to the border blockade, high fuel prices, narrowing investment demand, and shortages of skilled workers.

For the second month in a row, industrial enterprises predicted the deterioration of their economic activity’s results, considering the decrease in the volume of export-import operations and the increase in logistics costs.

Among other sectors, the economic results from the construction industry enterprises were evaluated most pessimistically, considering the seasonal drop in economic activity, the narrowing of investment demand, and the lack of qualified personnel.

All survey participants, except for industrial enterprises, predicted a slowdown in the growth rate of purchase prices.