Analysts predict Ukraine’s real GDP growth will be about 3% in 2025.

Ukraine demonstrated moderate economic growth in 2024 at 3.8%, and real GDP growth in 2025 will be approximately 3%, according to the Institute for Economic Research (IER).

Access to the Ukrainian Sea Corridor facilitated growth in metallurgy production, iron ore mining, and agricultural exports. Also, better logistics than in 2023 contributed to growth in exports of goods. According to preliminary figures, exports increased by 15% last year and imports by 8%. It is noted that defense orders continued to contribute to the development of mechanical engineering and light industry.

At the same time, uncertainty remained high throughout the year, which somewhat limited investment. The main obstacles to companies’ activities in 2024 were war-related issues, staff shortages, and problems with access to electricity.

The IER expects that in 2025, efforts by the government and international donors to insure military risks and provide guarantees will be more effective and that more investment financing will be received through the second component of the Ukraine Facility.