The IMF has downgraded its global economic growth forecast but expects a moderate recovery for Ukraine.

According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), global economic growth will slow in the coming years. This year, global GDP is projected to grow by only 2.8% and by 3% in 2026. For comparison, 2024’s figure was 3.3%, while the average growth rate from 2000 to 2019 was 3.7%.

The deterioration in expectations is attributed to changes in government policy priorities and a new wave of tariff restrictions, particularly from the US, which create a serious negative shock to global growth. Due to instability in the trading environment, the IMF has published a reference forecast rather than a baseline forecast, providing alternative scenarios based on potential changes in trade policy.

According to the IMF, escaping the crisis is possible only through strengthened international cooperation, debt restructuring, the adoption of a coordinated trade policy, and the maintenance of macroeconomic stability in individual countries.

The forecast for Ukraine remains unchanged, with GDP growth expected to be 2% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026.