The NBU forecast: What will happen to inflation and GDP in 2025-2026?

Inflation in Ukraine is expected to decrease during 2025-2026, dropping to 5%. According to the National Bank’s forecast, inflation will peak in the second quarter of 2025, and begin to decline to 8.4% by the end of 2025 and to the NBU’s target of 5% in 2026.

The inflation slowdown will be aided by the NBU’s measures, foreign exchange market stability, the new harvest, a reduction in Ukraine’s fiscal deficit, and weaker external price pressures. The labor market’s influence on prices will gradually diminish, and the impact of investment in energy independence is already primarily reflected in prices.

The NBU also noted that the economy continues to grow despite being constrained by the war’s consequences. The regulator expects real GDP to increase by 3.6% in 2025, with a subsequent acceleration to about 4% in the following two years.

“The economy will grow thanks to investments in reconstructing energy and production capacities, a soft fiscal policy, a revival of domestic demand, and larger harvests,” the NBU stated.