The International Monetary Fund has updated its macro forecast for Ukraine.

According to the IMF, the expectation for nominal GDP in 2024 has increased to ₴7.75T from the ₴7.64T predicted in December last year’ However, 2025’s forecast remains almost unchanged at ₴8.86T.

At the same time, this year the economy’s growth rate will decrease by 3-4% compared to 5% last year. The IMF improved its inflation forecast for this year to 8.5% from 9.5% and real wage growth to 9.8% from 8.5%.

However, the unemployment estimate worsened to 14.5% from 13.9%. As for the budget, the IMF slightly lowered its deficit estimate (without grants) from 20.4% to 20.2% of GDP.

The forecast for the total national debt at the end of the year has been improved to 94% of GDP from 96.7%. The new forecast for the current account deficit in 2024 is 5.7% of GDP instead of the 7.1% quoted in December materials, and foreign direct investment is 2.2% of GDP instead of 1.2%.

The estimate of gross international reserves at the end of this year has improved to $42.1B from $40.9B.