More Ukrainians are willing to stay abroad, causing a 7% GDP drop.

The situation with Ukrainian refugees is not improving. According to the Center for Economic Strategy, a more active state policy for the return of citizens is needed. Between 1.3 million and 3.3 million Ukrainians may remain abroad. This is 0.4-0.6 million more people than in the calculations from December 2022. As a result, the Ukrainian economy could lose from 2.7% to 6.9% of GDP annually.

The number of Ukrainians who remain abroad is 5.6-6.7 million people, which is 0.3-0.5 million, or 5%, more than at the end of 2022. This has taken place because of attacks on the power system, increased missile attacks in May, and the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP.

Currently, 63% of refugees plan to return to Ukraine, but this share is falling. “The longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians adapt to life abroad. In addition, some Ukrainians (6.8%) believe that the prospects for their children are better abroad,” the study says.