Ukraine’s real GDP will shrink by at least a third.

However, according to the National Bank of Ukraine, in 2022 the domestic economy will gradually recover. The number of enterprises with ceased operations decreased from 30% in early March to 23% in early April. Electricity consumption and production remain stable, and the number of open public consumption establishments and their turnover are increasing. The resumption of ticket sales by Ukrainian Railways (UZ) and steady demand also testify to the revival of economic activity. Nevertheless, experts note that Ukraine’s GDP reduction is expected for all components. Private consumption will decline due to the forced departure of many citizens from the country, rising unemployment, declining incomes, and reluctance toward secondary expenditures. In addition, due to significant uncertainty and high risk, investment activity will be significantly reduced. However, the final assessment of the economic losses from Russia’s full-scale invasion into Ukraine will depend on the duration of hostilities, the NBU stressed.