Ukraine’s hryvnia is likely to strengthen in the first half of 2021

Wednesday, January 6, 2021
Ukraine’s hryvnia is likely to strengthen in the first half of 2021

Ukraine’s hryvnia is likely to strengthen in the first half of 2021, thanks to foreign-currency inflows from exports and renewed interest by foreign investors in Ukrainian local bonds, a Reuters monthly poll of 13 analysts indicated yesterday. Last year, foreign investors cut their bond portfolio by almost $2 billion, or 42%. In the second half of December, foreign investors reversed, buying $368 million worth of bonds. This year, forecasts of continued strong prices for metals and grains coupled with resumed IMF lending make for a median June exchange rate forecast of UAH 27.60/$1, about 2% stronger than the current level. Last year, the hryvnia lost 17% of its value, largely in March.

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