The NBU’s 2023 GDP growth forecast has decreased from 4% in October to 0.3% in January.

The head of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshnyy, explained that the lowered estimate is due to the consequences from energy terrorism and a revision of the primary assumption regarding the duration of security risks. At the same time, the National Bank improved its inflation expectations – the growth of consumer prices by the end of 2023 will amount to 18.7% (in October, the forecast was 20.8%). The size estimate for Ukraine’s international reserves has also changed positively. It is assumed that by the end of the year, it will amount to $27B, which is $5.3B higher than the October forecast. With the already announced international aid volume and the progress in IMF negotiations, external financing may exceed $38B in 2023. This will avoid emergency financing of the budget deficit and maintain international reserves at a sufficient level.