The NBU believes that inflation has already peaked for this year and has started to decline.

According to Andriy Pyshnyy, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, inflation reached its peak as expected in May and began to decrease in June, amounting to 14.3% year-on-year. At the same time, it was higher than forecast, mainly due to the negative impact of weather conditions on the harvest and food supply. In contrast, the slowdown in core inflation to 12.1% was somewhat faster than expected.

The inflation trend in the upcoming months will largely depend on how weather conditions affect the supply and prices of agricultural products. According to preliminary estimates by the NBU, overall inflation may slightly increase in July, while core inflation continues to decline. Pyshnyy states that inflation is expected to follow a trajectory of steady deceleration in the coming months.

However, considering the significant losses from the war, the continued pass-through of rising business costs to prices, the worsened harvest outlook, and the effects of the hryvnia’s actual weakening against the euro, the NBU has revised its inflation forecast to reflect a slower decline. The forecast now projects inflation to slow to 9.7% in 2025 (up from the previous 8.7%), 6.6% in 2026 (up from 5%), and to reach a 5% target in 2027.