The Fitch agency is convinced that international financial support for Ukraine will not weaken in 2024.

International agency Fitch Ratings expects that international aid to Ukraine for 2024 will be only slightly lower than the amount forecasted for 2023, $43B, despite the political risks associated with the approval of promised funding. The longer-term proposals include a €50B EU loan  through 2027, as well as more general guarantees for formal sector financing, which underpin the IMF’s EFF.

At the same time, Fitch Ratings sees great funding uncertainty for 2025, partly due to the US election cycle, potential donor fatigue, and residual risks to EU funding plans.

Dragon Capital believes that a decrease in international aid in 2024 may lead to an increase in taxes and devaluation of the hryvnia. They are also confident that Kyiv will be able to receive all $40B, although a delay at the beginning of the year is not excluded. It is expected that €18B will come from the EU, $12B in grants from the US, a $5.4B loan from the IMF, and $4B from other partners.