The EBRD has worsened Ukraine’s economic forecast for 2023.

 The EBRD maintained its May forecast for the Ukrainian economy’s decline in 2022 but lowered its projections for Ukraine’s economic growth next year. Earlier this year, the EBRD predicted the drop in Ukraine’s GDP by the end of 2022 at 30%. However, the 2023 growth forecast was reduced from 25% to 8%. The EBRD said that the lowered forecast shows how much the uncertainty about Ukraine’s future weighs on its economic prospects. The report notes that while the fighting has become more concentrated in recent months, covering an area that generates about 20% of total GDP, the destruction of human capital, infrastructure, and productive capacity has been enormous. As of mid-August, about 15% of the population has left the country and another 15% have become internally displaced persons. In addition, economic activity was severely disrupted, even in non-combat areas, due to supply problems, logistical problems, financial difficulties, and labor shortages.