The confiscation of Russian assets will help Ukraine to finance the war at least until the end of 2028.

Despite the support from the US, Ukraine needs a medium-term financing plan to repel Russian aggression, and the main source of this financing must be Russia’s frozen assets. There is a high chance that, by the end of 2025, Ukraine will again run out of weapons and find itself in the same situation it is today.

Thus, a multi-year financing plan would provide some insurance against US political instability and give Western arms manufacturers more confidence in ramping up production, analysts say.

In addition, Putin may change his position if he understands that Ukraine can hold out for many more years. It is estimated that Ukraine’s defense spending needs will amount to at least €88B per year, and the primary means of acquiring these funds is for Ukraine to utilize the $300B in frozen Russian assets. This amount is sufficient to fund the war at least through the end of 2028.

If the parties disengage or the conflict is frozen before this time, Ukraine can use part of the money to restore its economy, which, according to the World Bank, will cost $486B.