The biggest problem in Ukraine’s reconstruction will not be investment attraction but lack of labor resources.
According to Ministry of Economy estimates, an additional 4.5 million people need to be attracted to the Ukrainian labor market over the next decade. Without this, it is impossible to successfully rebuild the country and ensure the growth of the national economy, at least within the minimum required 7% per year.
The war has exacerbated problems related to the lack of qualified personnel and certain sectoral and regional imbalances. The main challenge is the departure of millions of Ukrainians abroad due to mobilization and traditional labor migration. At the same time, the latest polls indicate that almost half of the refugees will not return home after the victory. And the longer the war lasts, the faster the percentage of those who plan to settle in a new place grows permanently.
According to the UN, approximately eight million Ukrainians have registered as refugees worldwide since the war began. Without an effective state policy for returning migrants, Ukraine may lose up to $113B of GDP over the next ten years.