It is unlikely that Ukraine will get any more money from its $5 billion June 2020 Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF,

 writes Concorde Capital’s Alexander Paraschiy. He calls the Wednesday night call between President Zelenskiy and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva “a clear indicator that Ukraine failed to meet its commitments to the Fund.” Looking at the calendar, he adds: “The IMF mission in September gives little chance for Ukraine to get any tranche from the fund by the time the state budget for 2022 is voted on, which is no earlier than late November.”

Arrival of a $700 million IMF tranche has been put off to the fall.

 After a telephone call with President Zelenskiy last night, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva tweeted praise for “Ukraine’s successful economic progress under the IMF program.” But she said an IMF review mission will visit Ukraine in September. Earlier yesterday, in talks to reporters, Zelenskiy listed the free market reforms adopted by the Rada and announced: “We are ready to receive a tranche.”

With the summer slipping away, the realistic scenario for Ukraine’s relationship with the IMF might be to convert Ukraine’s frozen Stand-By Arrangement into an Extended Fund Facility

, wrote Timothy Ash, a veteran observer of Ukraine’s IMF deals. The IMF may “look to roll the monies into a new EFF to be negotiated towards year end – maybe that should now be the focus,” Ash writes from London. “Any such EFF would then roll in much needed structural reform conditionality. Arguably the problem with the current SBA was that it lacked any real structural benchmarks.”

Ukraine should receive $2.7 billion from the IMF by late August, in time for $3 billion in debt payments due in September,

 Vladislav Rashkovan, Ukraine’s Alternate Executive Director to the IMF, writes on Facebook from Washington. The funds will be Ukraine’s portion of a $650 billion distribution of IMF money approved Thursday by the IMF Board. “This is a very positive step by the IMF, including for Ukraine, as it will help the government to calmly manage public finances,” Rashkovan wrote.  The IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, said in a statement Friday: “We expect the SDR allocation to be completed by the

Separately, Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko reported Friday that Ukraine and the IMF have reached a compromise on anti-corruption and corporate governance reforms.

 Last week, Marchenko had a series of meeting with IMF officials in Washington to try to restart the IMF lending program that stalled one year ago. The Finance Ministry statement concluded: “The parties agreed on close communication and joint work to be able to reach the Staff level agreement in the near future.” Earlier in the week, Economy Minister Oleksiy Lyubchenko said Ukraine’s government expecting to receive the $700 million loan tranche before the end of this year.

If both laws were deemed ‘IMF compliant,’ they would contribute to restarting in July the long dormant process of an IMF review and to the resumption of lending in September

. Ukraine’s $5 billion IMF program stalled after a first tranche was disbursed one year ago. Compliance with an IMF program reassures foreign investors. Compliance would also change the dynamic of President Zelenskiy’s visit to the White House at the end of July.